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May 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we enter the last third of May here is a brief update as to where several locations stand. At Grand Rapids the mean is now at 56.4 that is a departure of -0.9 the high for May so far is 81 and the low is 36 at Lansing the mean is 56.9 for a departure of +0.5 their high so far is 82 and the low is 36.  At Muskegon the mean is 57.2 for a departure of +1.3 the high so far there is 83 and the low 36. At Holland the mean is 55.9 for a departure of -0.2 the high there is 79 and the low is 36. All locations are well below average in rain fall. That could soon be a issue.

Around the state Detroit -0.9, Flint -0.4, Saginaw -1.1, Alpena -0.8 Houghton Lake -0.3 are all below average. While The Sault, Marquette and Houghton are above average most of Michigan is below average in rain fall..

 

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High of 77 Sunny  

Low tonight 61.  

Just a fabulous day.  Pollen is killing me but not a bad trade for gorgeous weather.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday the official H/L was 67/46 there was a trace of reported rain fall and 55% of possible sunshine. There were 0 Cooling Degree Days and 8 Heating Degree Days. For today the average H/L is 72/50 the record high of 91 was in 1977 and the record low of 31 was in 1969. The record rain fall of 2.46” fell in 2004.

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It's finally going to dry out here as the DP's begin to fall today/tomorrow and a more normal MAY pattern begins with highs hovering around 100F all week, although, some signs that MDW may be a touch cooler than normal.  I'm totally fine with that!

0z Euro...pretty cool animation showing a "squeeze play" where the Plains shall see precip and higher DP's while those west & east are dry.

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I'd be stoked to see a nice rally in the precip dept to finish off MAY...

 

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0z EPS...gotta love it when Nature targets those areas which need it most...

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65 Partly Cloudy. High around 79. 
We have a week of low 90’s and dry fair weather.  Should be a great week. 

Currently rain down in Hill Country. I’m sure they’re glad to see it before things warm up.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Our cooler than normal but very dry May continues across Chester County. Unfortunately we only picked up between .01" and .05" of rain with the light showers last night. We are now more than 5" below normal rainfall for the year. A dry mild week to start before turning back below normal by the holiday weekend. Looks pretty dry through the end of the month but 🤞 for a potential pattern change to wetter to start the month of June.
Records for today: High 95 (1934)/ Low 34 (2002) / Rain 3.55" (1894)
image.png.613b6b60c1197537f65e661814ce49fb.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

It's finally going to dry out here as the DP's begin to fall today/tomorrow and a more normal MAY pattern begins with highs hovering around 100F all week, although, some signs that MDW may be a touch cooler than normal.  I'm totally fine with that!

0z Euro...pretty cool animation showing a "squeeze play" where the Plains shall see precip and higher DP's while those west & east are dry.

1.gif

 

I'd be stoked to see a nice rally in the precip dept to finish off MAY...

 

image.png

 

0z EPS...gotta love it when Nature targets those areas which need it most...

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To the drought, we can call that one the "Plume of Doom". Like a life-giving heartbeat through the middle of our nation. Truly beautiful seeing everything change like that in cycle and in order. All in perfect time.

Your point in a previous post about hurricanes comes to mind there as well. I think its only a matter of time before we see it get rolling. While i wouldn't call for an above average tropical season for overall activity, I think when it comes, it will be a lot of mid-category or major hurricanes rather than high tropical waves and fish-storms as they used to be called. 

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Reed Timmer seems very confident the Southern Plains are about to have some severe weather over the next few weeks.  Oklahoma looks to be the target.

The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing
Image
We are eyeing next weekend to have two Dominators out in the field at once for the first time in 10 years. A lot needs to come together, but conversations are happening.
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34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Reed Timmer seems very confident the Southern Plains are about to have some severe weather over the next few weeks.  Oklahoma looks to be the target.

The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing
We are eyeing next weekend to have two Dominators out in the field at once for the first time in 10 years. A lot needs to come together, but conversations are happening.

That is what I been thinking as well based on the models (Especially the ensembles) I have been looking at for a while.

And of course, Oklahoma is the target, especially since we are going to El Niño

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Reed Timmer seems very confident the Southern Plains are about to have some severe weather over the next few weeks.  Oklahoma looks to be the target.

The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing
Image
We are eyeing next weekend to have two Dominators out in the field at once for the first time in 10 years. A lot needs to come together, but conversations are happening.

Yeah, there's always another side to the good stuff. There will be amazing opportunities for severe weather, for sure. He covered the reasons pretty solidly about like I did in other posts. The Pacific is running the show from now through late summer or longer. 

His terminology NPO is what I'm speaking of when I talk about the PDO/AO couplet.

This is the interesting part of this pattern.

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Yesterday was a rather pleasant day the official H/L was 76/42 there was no rain fall and 87% of possible sunshine. There were 0 Cooling Degree Days and 6 Heating Degree Days. The overnight low here in MBY was 46 and the current reading is 48 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 91 was set in 1925 and the record low of 34 was set in 1917. The record rain fall amount of 1.10” fell in 1917.

Looking ahead today and tomorrow look to be on the mild side then a mid-week cool down. There once again Is a chance of frost on Thursday morning.  At this time the weekend looks to be rather pleasant. The chances of rain look to be very slim. This could end up being one of the driest May’s in a long time.

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Today looks to be our only above normal temperature day of the week. Overall temps looks to stay near to slightly below normal as we have a good chance to finish with our 1st below normal temperature month of the year and first since our below normal December 2022. Dry weather all work week but it looks a bit unsettled by the 2nd half of Memorial Day weekend.
Records for today: High 95 (1941) / Low 34 (1963) / Rain 2.59" (1915)

image.png.a7219833a344829205e6df808d962ae0.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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You will never see a drier 10-day Euro at this time of year.  This is pretty ridiculous.

image.thumb.png.28fe0330c6e7948366f4bf896ab97616.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We’re sitting at 84* but the humidity is 45%.  
Unusual for us, especially in late Spring. Gorgeous evening. Calm wind. Just perfect.  

I'm interested in this wet summer you’re talking about.  The last one I recall was in the early 2000’s.  We had a very rainy June.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was very pleasant, the official H/L was 77/47 there once again was no rain fall. For the month at GR there has only been 0.84” of rain. Currently there is really no rain in the forecast. There was 70% of filtered sunshine yesterday. There were 0 CDD’s and 3 HDD’s currently May has only 3 Cooling Degree Days that is a departure of -20 and there have been 178 Heating Degree Days that is a departure of -7 so for the month of May heating and cooling energy use is both less than average so a good “don’t have to month so far.

For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 90 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 1963. The record rain fall of 2.26 fell in 1904. The next week looks to swing between warm and cool. There are a couple of days with highs of around or just above 80 and nights with lows in the 30’s

For the week ahead the two things of interest are the lack of rain fall and the chance of some frost. This is from today weather discussion

“FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY   
NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BRINGS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING   
CONDITIONS. COLD HOLLOWS UP NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S   
BUT EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL BE IN THE 30S. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL   
WILL BE MONITORED”

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Sun should be on the increase this afternoon with highs a couple degrees below yesterday and slightly below normal levels for late May. Much of the next week looks to average near to slighly below normal across the area. Best rain chances look like Saturday night through Monday...but it will not be a wash out for outdoor plans over the holiday weekend.
Records for today: High 94 (1925) / Low 32 (1963) / Rain 2.02" (1989)
image.png.c5852b0d3ef870f822e68d5490c3e612.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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A cool 70 this morning on its way to 85.  
Tomorrow 40% chance of rain.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It was a fun week of tracking storms throughout the state of Arizona last week, but today, we dry out and warm up.  Actually, yesterday we warmed up quite a bit and PHX hit 103F which is 5F Above Normal for the date.  The rest of the week and weekend we will have highs near 100F or upper 90's and plenty of SUN.  Near Perfection for the Valley of the Sun.

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23 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

I hate long stretches of dry weather like this, and we are going to be very dry by early June, but it's nice to see other regions, which badly need rain, get a nice soaking.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I hate long stretches of dry weather like this, and we are going to be very dry by early June, but it's nice to see other regions, which badly need rain, get a nice soaking.

Agree, its just the way it goes..."The Hav's and Have not's"...your turn will come in June...

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41 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

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If this verifies (looks like it’s a good bet that we don’t get any rain this weekend), it will solidify this as the driest May in Omaha’s history… I haven’t ever seen unwatered areas of grass start to go dormant this early in the season.

I feel for the local farmers, if we don’t get something soon this summer is going to be even worse than last year.

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Drought incoming for the Great Lakes region. Grass starting to brown already and we’ve just started.   Not even memorial day yet.  Not much rain in sight next ten days.   Low 80’s today.  Cold front with cool temps then it looks like the heat is on!   Welcome to summer in late May early June.  Rex block for the win except for rain.  

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Tom, The rain will be welcomed. We all know here things will dry up so we want to capture to rain while we can.  
Bring it on!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

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That will be very welcomed!  We need several 2 to 4 inch rains.  Farm ponds are very low!

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We are approaching dangerous levels around these parts. Dry land crops might be screwed before mid June and farmers are selling cattle because pastures are dead. My mowing business is gonna take a big hit this year also if things don’t change. It looks like mid July or august on yards not watered. 

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To the ones missing the rainfall, it will come. I'd bet on it. With this pattern in the NH developing, it is only a matter of time.

This pretty much nails my AO/NAO and Pacific calls for the remainder of this month and to close spring.

Sweet upper air pattern here.

Negatives are the added heat content in the GOM. Its going to produce a massive hurricane somewhere eventually.

 

z500_nh_30d_anim.gif

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Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are warming up   Hurricanes will be trying to form in a month.

Current sea tmp: 27.5°C / 81.54444°F

1B44A768-FD00-4D77-8C87-F0E2CE4C4F1C.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are warming up   Hurricanes will be trying to form in a month.

Current sea tmp: 27.5°C / 81.54444°F

1B44A768-FD00-4D77-8C87-F0E2CE4C4F1C.png

Yeah. I get "Hurricane" by Band of Heathens stuck in my head around this time. Especially with famed mets echoing my thoughts now about interior Gulf hurricanes on the TX/LA border. It's going to be tremendously hard not to see a repeat of 2005 somewhere, I'm afraid, before it shifts back to the mid-Atlantic states and even points further in the New England states.

Again, i differ on total storms with 10-14 (below avg slightly) but bad ones will be a bigger percentage of that total. 

Many things back me on this. El Nino being one. The tendency of the NAO/AO to hedge negative more often as we traverse summer being two major ones. 

The Pacific is being dominated by lows off Alaska even in late spring is another telling sign. These all reinforce my ideas of a warm NE as well and rain returning to the Great Lakes region when the NAO relaxes and doesn't overwhelm the pattern so much. 

Edit: this should probably be in the summer thread. Oops.

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14 hours ago, Tom said:

Agree, its just the way it goes..."The Hav's and Have not's"...your turn will come in June...

Im going to have to look up the info. But this smells the driest May ever my area.  Im at .90 in May. And 3.36 since April 1st. While not extremely  hot the dewpoints have been low and wall to wall sun for weeks have the ground parched. Lawns are turning  brown, which  is unheard  of here on May 23. Statistically late May early June is wettest  time of year. With June 8th being the highest  likelihood  of rain all yr. I used to trust May for rain here, that 3 to 5 inches was a lock.  I now know that anytime of year 20 straight  sunny days can occur and literally  parch this place making growing  anuals almost impossible. I traveled  to Marshalltown  Iowa and east of Fairfield over the weekend. No place ive seen as dry as the area surrounding  Ottumwa  and  20 miles  to south. Everyone  can talk about  a wet June and a wet el nino. But in my experience  if late may or june turn dry it locks in until some point  in late aug or more likely  sept.  We are staring down the barrel of a major disaster similar  to 2012 or the even more localized horrible  2017.

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71* and rain will be in North Texas until 6-7 am.  

1604CD4D-45BD-4927-AB58-7A1D819E952E.jpeg
 

Edit:  They’ve extended rain till early afternoon.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L yesterday was 82/50 there was no rain, There was 81% of possible sunshine but there still was a good deal of smoke giving the sky a white look. There were no HDD’s and 1 CDD’s For today the average high low is 73/51 the record high of 89 was set in 1977, 2007 and 2010. The record low of 33 was set in 1925 and 1963. The record rain fall of 1.5” fell in 1981.

It very well could be that there will be no rain fall the rest of May. If so the month will end up with less than a inch of rain fall at Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing. At Grand Rapids the 0.84” so far would be the 2nd lowest for any May. The 0.86” at Muskegon and the 0.96” at Lansing would be the 5th least for any May.

The big news in the next 5 days is that there is a frost and freeze warmings out for tonight. Lows could fall into the low to mid 30’s so many will have to cover their tender plants tonight and it looks to get down into the 30’s once again on Friday morning as well. Then it looks to warm up during the daytime but with low dew points it will cool down at night.

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