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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


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As we fast approach the kick start to the Holiday Season, mother nature is going deliver quite a storm system across the heartland of the nation during one of the most busiest travel periods of the year.  While the models are showing some wildly varying solutions, this will undoubtedly be an impactful storm system for those in the direct path. 

 

Let's discuss...

 

Taking a look at the ensembles, both the GEFS/EPS are rather pretty close in agreement on track but the operational runs are certainly having trouble which is to be expected at this range.  IMO, the blocking is wrecking havoc on each op run but as we get closer I'd expect to see some more consistency.  Nonetheless, all the models do show some sort of strong mid-lat cyclone to develop across our Sub.  Should be fun tracking this potential beast of a storm.

 

00z GEFS snow depth certainly starting to pick up on a snowier solution across the Plains up into the Upper MW...

 

snod.conus.png

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First flakes are now arriving right on schedule. Winds will continue to increase and be up to 45 MPH this evening. Impressive radar in Colorado that will be moving this direction all day. Latest forec

May be a fantasy map, but it's certainly a colorful one!        

I am putting all my stock in the 12z WRF -- Hope it is onto something! I80 special?!   https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112512&fh=37&r=us_c&dpdt=

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The Euro from last night that has a storm at 200+ hours is not even the same piece of energy as in this thread. The Euro;is now keeping the system progressive with a much less amplified system crossing into the Great Lakes. Outside of N.WI - a basic dud in the 26-28th time frame.  Ensembles at this range are probably the way to go and my gut says a Dakota's Special with a cold rain for many reading  and if that's the case I'd take a whole lotta nothing in what the Euro has....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'm thinking last nights run of the Euro can be thrown in the trash.  

Yup, if you look at the run it splits the energy with one piece going north and the other south which screws up the whole run.  Likely won't happen.

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Do you think this bad boy will produce a double barrel low?

Hmmm, good question...I'm not sure just yet and won't put a finger on it.  It's to far out to really suggest any sort of characteristics this system will showcase.  How did the EPS ensemble snow mean look?  

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Hmmm, good question...I'm not sure just yet and won't put a finger on it.  It's to far out to really suggest any sort of characteristics this system will showcase.  How did the EPS ensemble snow mean look?  

Not a whole lot of change.

1575223200-IAH0PQzoXnU.png

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12z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

That's a lot of snow over me Tom.  NWS Hastings this morning says to disregard GFS from last night.  It is because it is showing a big storm?  We'll see if they are correct.   It looks like a storm will come through next week, but many questions remain.  Love tracking these even though many times we get frustrated.

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GFS and ICON in fairly good agreement.  Last night's Euro I feel is a throw away run.  Very odd, but I've seen the Euro do this before with storms only to have it come back.  The GHD blizzard being the most memorable.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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At Tom

 

Presuming this storm follows through in the regions indicated, are you considering this system #1 of the 2nd cycle of the new LRC? Which was the huge Dakotas bliz in the first cycle, correct? Because the map I posted yesterday wasn't the Dakotas special. Just wanted to clarify after Grizz posted his listing later on. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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UKMET with a dud, in line with last nights' EURO and recent CMC. How the Ukie trends is usally a good indecation of where the EURO goes. We will see,,,

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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the weakened system tracks through Missouri and drops a little bit of snow there.  Again improvement over the 00z run, but not much to write home about.  Weird how quickly the Euro changed it's tune.  Still could flip flop back.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Euro is obviously on to something (and with others) -- at this range I say it's right and the GFS is out to lunch, not like the GFS this year has even been to lunch. I say no storm - wait a few days. 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ensembles are the way to go at this point. Curious to see the 0z EPS when it’s available. Interestingly almost all 12z GEFS ensembles still appear to show some form of storm on Wed/Thurs in wide ranging intensities and locations. Blocking = model mayhem. It always does.

 

Edit: ninja’d by Clinton. Thanks for posting the EPS.

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Models are all over the place.  Too many variables.  Maybe energy hanging back and the bigger storm comes after Turkey Day?

 

iirc, the Halloween storm started out as a western cutter, then ended up with a SLP tracking south of us. The Vet's Day storm was flashed on/off as happening or not happening at all, before models caught up with the Euro from about day 5 or 6 on in. Can't remember if it was initially flashed to hit west of us or not tbh? I do remember that most models had GHD-1 as another East Coast big dog at this longer range (7+ days) before moving it back west into our region around this time-frame. Tom's use of the Ensemble Mean maps prolly the safer way to go beyond day 5 with any threat so far this young season.  

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Still a large spread among the Euro ensembles, lot of changes most likely the next day or so.

1575158400-cpfMoyq1kyc.png1575158400-FP88hwQYYJ0.png

 

LET'S JUST LOCK IN MEMBER #35 AND CALL IT A DAY!  :lol:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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iirc, the Halloween storm started out as a western cutter, then ended up with a SLP tracking south of us. The Vet's Day storm was flashed on/off as happening or not happening at all, before models caught up with the Euro from about day 5 or 6 on in. Can't remember if it was initially flashed to hit west of us or not tbh? I do remember that most models had GHD-1 as another East Coast big dog at this longer range (7+ days) before moving it back west into our region around this time-frame. Tom's use of the Ensemble Mean maps prolly the safer way to go beyond day 5 with any threat so far this young season.  

GRR says EURO looks promising for snow in Michigan.  Hope it wins this round. 

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Ensembles are the way to go at this point. Curious to see the 0z EPS when it’s available. Interestingly almost all 12z GEFS ensembles still appear to show some form of storm on Wed/Thurs in wide ranging intensities and locations. Blocking = model mayhem. It always does.

 

Edit: ninja’d by Clinton. Thanks for posting the EPS.

 

Might also be a case of multiple energies in the pipeline and it's having a difficult time sorting out which one will go big.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:huh:   Kinda shocked that my office seems bullish on next week..

 

The active pattern continues next week and holiday travel seems

destined to be affected by a storm on Wednesday. The ECMWF is
trending further east and colder with accumulating snow possible.
The GFS is further west with mostly rain. Plenty of ensemble
spread here as expected in a rapidly evolving pattern, but the
overall theme is this will be a big storm and will likely cause
some disruption to travel on Wednesday.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Models are slowly starting to see that block.

 

Perhaps, just odd that GRR suddenly does as well  :lol:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I’ll take the GFS and Icon

 

ICON's the front-end dump for sure!. I like the amped GFS tho still too warm here.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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