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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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As we fast approach the kick start to the Holiday Season, mother nature is going deliver quite a storm system across the heartland of the nation during one of the most busiest travel periods of the year.  While the models are showing some wildly varying solutions, this will undoubtedly be an impactful storm system for those in the direct path. 

 

Let's discuss...

 

Taking a look at the ensembles, both the GEFS/EPS are rather pretty close in agreement on track but the operational runs are certainly having trouble which is to be expected at this range.  IMO, the blocking is wrecking havoc on each op run but as we get closer I'd expect to see some more consistency.  Nonetheless, all the models do show some sort of strong mid-lat cyclone to develop across our Sub.  Should be fun tracking this potential beast of a storm.

 

00z GEFS snow depth certainly starting to pick up on a snowier solution across the Plains up into the Upper MW...

 

snod.conus.png

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The Euro from last night that has a storm at 200+ hours is not even the same piece of energy as in this thread. The Euro;is now keeping the system progressive with a much less amplified system crossing into the Great Lakes. Outside of N.WI - a basic dud in the 26-28th time frame.  Ensembles at this range are probably the way to go and my gut says a Dakota's Special with a cold rain for many reading  and if that's the case I'd take a whole lotta nothing in what the Euro has....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Do you think this bad boy will produce a double barrel low?

Hmmm, good question...I'm not sure just yet and won't put a finger on it.  It's to far out to really suggest any sort of characteristics this system will showcase.  How did the EPS ensemble snow mean look?  

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12z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

That's a lot of snow over me Tom.  NWS Hastings this morning says to disregard GFS from last night.  It is because it is showing a big storm?  We'll see if they are correct.   It looks like a storm will come through next week, but many questions remain.  Love tracking these even though many times we get frustrated.

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At Tom

 

Presuming this storm follows through in the regions indicated, are you considering this system #1 of the 2nd cycle of the new LRC? Which was the huge Dakotas bliz in the first cycle, correct? Because the map I posted yesterday wasn't the Dakotas special. Just wanted to clarify after Grizz posted his listing later on. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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UKMET with a dud, in line with last nights' EURO and recent CMC. How the Ukie trends is usally a good indecation of where the EURO goes. We will see,,,

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro is obviously on to something (and with others) -- at this range I say it's right and the GFS is out to lunch, not like the GFS this year has even been to lunch. I say no storm - wait a few days. 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ensembles are the way to go at this point. Curious to see the 0z EPS when it’s available. Interestingly almost all 12z GEFS ensembles still appear to show some form of storm on Wed/Thurs in wide ranging intensities and locations. Blocking = model mayhem. It always does.

 

Edit: ninja’d by Clinton. Thanks for posting the EPS.

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Models are all over the place.  Too many variables.  Maybe energy hanging back and the bigger storm comes after Turkey Day?

 

iirc, the Halloween storm started out as a western cutter, then ended up with a SLP tracking south of us. The Vet's Day storm was flashed on/off as happening or not happening at all, before models caught up with the Euro from about day 5 or 6 on in. Can't remember if it was initially flashed to hit west of us or not tbh? I do remember that most models had GHD-1 as another East Coast big dog at this longer range (7+ days) before moving it back west into our region around this time-frame. Tom's use of the Ensemble Mean maps prolly the safer way to go beyond day 5 with any threat so far this young season.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Still a large spread among the Euro ensembles, lot of changes most likely the next day or so.

1575158400-cpfMoyq1kyc.png1575158400-FP88hwQYYJ0.png

 

LET'S JUST LOCK IN MEMBER #35 AND CALL IT A DAY!  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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iirc, the Halloween storm started out as a western cutter, then ended up with a SLP tracking south of us. The Vet's Day storm was flashed on/off as happening or not happening at all, before models caught up with the Euro from about day 5 or 6 on in. Can't remember if it was initially flashed to hit west of us or not tbh? I do remember that most models had GHD-1 as another East Coast big dog at this longer range (7+ days) before moving it back west into our region around this time-frame. Tom's use of the Ensemble Mean maps prolly the safer way to go beyond day 5 with any threat so far this young season.  

GRR says EURO looks promising for snow in Michigan.  Hope it wins this round. 

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Ensembles are the way to go at this point. Curious to see the 0z EPS when it’s available. Interestingly almost all 12z GEFS ensembles still appear to show some form of storm on Wed/Thurs in wide ranging intensities and locations. Blocking = model mayhem. It always does.

 

Edit: ninja’d by Clinton. Thanks for posting the EPS.

 

Might also be a case of multiple energies in the pipeline and it's having a difficult time sorting out which one will go big.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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