Tom Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 As we fast approach the kick start to the Holiday Season, mother nature is going deliver quite a storm system across the heartland of the nation during one of the most busiest travel periods of the year. While the models are showing some wildly varying solutions, this will undoubtedly be an impactful storm system for those in the direct path. Let's discuss... Taking a look at the ensembles, both the GEFS/EPS are rather pretty close in agreement on track but the operational runs are certainly having trouble which is to be expected at this range. IMO, the blocking is wrecking havoc on each op run but as we get closer I'd expect to see some more consistency. Nonetheless, all the models do show some sort of strong mid-lat cyclone to develop across our Sub. Should be fun tracking this potential beast of a storm. 00z GEFS snow depth certainly starting to pick up on a snowier solution across the Plains up into the Upper MW... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 00z EPS holding steady on track out of the TX Panhandle region up right over Chicago... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 The Euro from last night that has a storm at 200+ hours is not even the same piece of energy as in this thread. The Euro;is now keeping the system progressive with a much less amplified system crossing into the Great Lakes. Outside of N.WI - a basic dud in the 26-28th time frame. Ensembles at this range are probably the way to go and my gut says a Dakota's Special with a cold rain for many reading and if that's the case I'd take a whole lotta nothing in what the Euro has.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 I'm thinking last nights run of the Euro can be thrown in the trash. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 I'm thinking last nights run of the Euro can be thrown in the trash. Yup, if you look at the run it splits the energy with one piece going north and the other south which screws up the whole run. Likely won't happen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Yup, if you look at the run it splits the energy with one piece going north and the other south which screws up the whole run. Likely won't happen.Do you think this bad boy will produce a double barrel low? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Do you think this bad boy will produce a double barrel low?Hmmm, good question...I'm not sure just yet and won't put a finger on it. It's to far out to really suggest any sort of characteristics this system will showcase. How did the EPS ensemble snow mean look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Hmmm, good question...I'm not sure just yet and won't put a finger on it. It's to far out to really suggest any sort of characteristics this system will showcase. How did the EPS ensemble snow mean look? Not a whole lot of change. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 12z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 12z GFS... That's a lot of snow over me Tom. NWS Hastings this morning says to disregard GFS from last night. It is because it is showing a big storm? We'll see if they are correct. It looks like a storm will come through next week, but many questions remain. Love tracking these even though many times we get frustrated. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 GFS and ICON in fairly good agreement. Last night's Euro I feel is a throw away run. Very odd, but I've seen the Euro do this before with storms only to have it come back. The GHD blizzard being the most memorable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Looks like a good read on snowday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 CMC is similar to last nights Euro... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Wpc is running with the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 At Tom Presuming this storm follows through in the regions indicated, are you considering this system #1 of the 2nd cycle of the new LRC? Which was the huge Dakotas bliz in the first cycle, correct? Because the map I posted yesterday wasn't the Dakotas special. Just wanted to clarify after Grizz posted his listing later on. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 12z GFS ensembles through the end of the month.And this is through the 28th. Ens 18 and 19 are interesting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 12z GFS ensembles through the end of the month.And this is through the 28th. Ens 18 and 19 are interestingThanks for sharing buddy! Keep up the good work! Thanks for keeping us poor(er) posters informed! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Thanks for sharing buddy! Keep up the good work! Thanks for keeping us poor(er) posters informed!Ha I'm just lucky my wife raised my allowance lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 UKMET with a dud, in line with last nights' EURO and recent CMC. How the Ukie trends is usally a good indecation of where the EURO goes. We will see,,, Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Euro coming in like last night so far. Seems that lead storm has disappeared on the Euro. Crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Actually starting to show signs of organization at hour 138, i may have spoke too soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 hmmmm, nope dudding out at hour 150. LOL. Better than the 00z run but still looking pretty weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 the weakened system tracks through Missouri and drops a little bit of snow there. Again improvement over the 00z run, but not much to write home about. Weird how quickly the Euro changed it's tune. Still could flip flop back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Euro is obviously on to something (and with others) -- at this range I say it's right and the GFS is out to lunch, not like the GFS this year has even been to lunch. I say no storm - wait a few days. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Models are all over the place. Too many variables. Maybe energy hanging back and the bigger storm comes after Turkey Day? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 SE Michigan and NW Ohio get in on some snow this run of the Euro though. Strong system hitting the west coast at hour 156, that may end up being the stronger storm now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Yeah the king has done great sniffing out storms so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Dakota's storm on euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Oh yeah definitely looking like Dakota special Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Still a large spread among the Euro ensembles, lot of changes most likely the next day or so. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Ensembles are the way to go at this point. Curious to see the 0z EPS when it’s available. Interestingly almost all 12z GEFS ensembles still appear to show some form of storm on Wed/Thurs in wide ranging intensities and locations. Blocking = model mayhem. It always does. Edit: ninja’d by Clinton. Thanks for posting the EPS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Here the mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Models are all over the place. Too many variables. Maybe energy hanging back and the bigger storm comes after Turkey Day? iirc, the Halloween storm started out as a western cutter, then ended up with a SLP tracking south of us. The Vet's Day storm was flashed on/off as happening or not happening at all, before models caught up with the Euro from about day 5 or 6 on in. Can't remember if it was initially flashed to hit west of us or not tbh? I do remember that most models had GHD-1 as another East Coast big dog at this longer range (7+ days) before moving it back west into our region around this time-frame. Tom's use of the Ensemble Mean maps prolly the safer way to go beyond day 5 with any threat so far this young season. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Still a large spread among the Euro ensembles, lot of changes most likely the next day or so. LET'S JUST LOCK IN MEMBER #35 AND CALL IT A DAY! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 iirc, the Halloween storm started out as a western cutter, then ended up with a SLP tracking south of us. The Vet's Day storm was flashed on/off as happening or not happening at all, before models caught up with the Euro from about day 5 or 6 on in. Can't remember if it was initially flashed to hit west of us or not tbh? I do remember that most models had GHD-1 as another East Coast big dog at this longer range (7+ days) before moving it back west into our region around this time-frame. Tom's use of the Ensemble Mean maps prolly the safer way to go beyond day 5 with any threat so far this young season. GRR says EURO looks promising for snow in Michigan. Hope it wins this round. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Ensembles are the way to go at this point. Curious to see the 0z EPS when it’s available. Interestingly almost all 12z GEFS ensembles still appear to show some form of storm on Wed/Thurs in wide ranging intensities and locations. Blocking = model mayhem. It always does. Edit: ninja’d by Clinton. Thanks for posting the EPS. Might also be a case of multiple energies in the pipeline and it's having a difficult time sorting out which one will go big. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 GFS trending toward Euro this run. Getting closer to Michigan.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 Looks like this thing is really losing steam.... On to the next! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 GFS is going bonkers. Lol at what happens between 198 and 204. Half of the precip just vanished within 6 hours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 GFS is going bonkers. Lol at what happens between 198 and 204. Half of the precip just vanished within 6 hours?That may not be the most accurate run ever. Looks like it glitches. One thing that is evident, there is a ton of moisture down the road. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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