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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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:huh:   Kinda shocked that my office seems bullish on next week..

 

The active pattern continues next week and holiday travel seems

destined to be affected by a storm on Wednesday. The ECMWF is
trending further east and colder with accumulating snow possible.
The GFS is further west with mostly rain. Plenty of ensemble
spread here as expected in a rapidly evolving pattern, but the
overall theme is this will be a big storm and will likely cause
some disruption to travel on Wednesday.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:huh:   Kinda shocked that my office seems bullish on next week..

Models are slowly starting to see that block.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models are slowly starting to see that block.

 

Perhaps, just odd that GRR suddenly does as well  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I’ll take the GFS and Icon

 

ICON's the front-end dump for sure!. I like the amped GFS tho still too warm here.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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To no ones surprise; the GFS 06Z continues to the show the system and in fact gives many on here significant snows. The $64,000 question is when does it (GFS) realize its totally wrong? we've been through this before this season with the GFS totally out to lunch- several times just since OCT.  I say 18Z run Saturday.  This thread should be changed to "When will the GFS cave?"

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX's take-  

 

/Monday through Wednesday/...

Confidence: Low

Large differences between the evolution of the Euro vs. GFS
deterministic models remain into next week; though some themes are
beginning to develop. Both the GFS and Euro recognize that a wave
will be amplifying Tuesday into Wednesday. However, the arrival of
colder air in the northern stream in the Euro model already by
midday Monday drops the baroclinic zone into the lower Ohio Valley
by midday Tuesday. The GFS, however, never brings the cold air south
initially and this keeps the baroclinic zone over Iowa. The net
result for the GFS is surface low amplification over Iowa northeast
into lower Michigan while the Euro remains much farther southeast
and keeps our area dry. It`s no real surprise that the models are
struggling to reach any consistency in solutions/ensemble members
with such an energetic pattern in the offing next week. Subsequent
evolution of surface systems from Wednesday through week`s end
hinges on the early week pattern evolution. For now, at least both
the Euro and GFS recognize a large H500 trough moving into the
western US from the Pacific during the period from Wednesday through
next weekend. This should trend to bring significant Gulf moisture
and warmer conditions north into the Central Plains by Thursday into
Saturday. At this time, rain would be more likely from Iowa south
while north of our area, a mixture may still be possible. Highs
Monday through Wednesday will range from the 40s to lower 50s
overall with lows in the 20s and 30s. The key to next week really
comes down to how far south through Iowa the cold air can reach
Monday. This should become more evident later on Friday and Saturday
as observational data begins to elucidate the differences in current
model projections. At that point, confidence in most of next week
should increase.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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While trends are fading for the beast the models were flashing in earlier runs, there is still enough of a signal among the ensembles some peeps on here will be seeing wintry precip.  IMO, as was the case with the Vet's Day system and other storms this season, I think the medium range chaos in the modeling is transpiring.

 

Last night's 00z Ukie laid down a healthy swath of snow (4-8") from NE/IA/S MN/WI....

 

 

Both the 00z/06z GEFS still advertising a TX Panhandle cutter....

 

snod.conus.png

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Bam! 12z Euro back with a strong storm...TX Panhandle cutter into the OHV. On phone so dont have maps.

 

Edit: I showed examples earlier this week where storms form in this “slot” of this years LRC. Hope this is a trend...storm is not cancelled!

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Bam! 12z Euro back with a strong storm...TX Panhandle cutter into the OHV. On phone so dont have maps.

 

Edit: I showed examples earlier this week where storms form in this “slot” of this years LRC. Hope this is a trend...storm is not cancelled!

 Can we just lock that in right now? Perfect for our area.  A little too perfect. 

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Yep, Euro back in the game.  Still slower than in recent days, it's 132 hours before the snow starts showing up in Missouri.  So this likely won't be the last shift we see in placement, and strength.  If it could get it's act together a little sooner it could be beneficial for more of us yet.  

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Bam! 12z Euro back with a strong storm...TX Panhandle cutter into the OHV. On phone so dont have maps.

 

Edit: I showed examples earlier this week where storms form in this “slot” of this years LRC. Hope this is a trend...storm is not cancelled!

12z euro at 144... 982mb just West of Cleveland or so..what a perfect track. Wheres Jaster??!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Now lets see if it trends colder, wetter, and maybe a couple of tics stronger.

Maybe the models will pick up on that lead wave tracking across the Upper MW that can pull down some colder air in front of it.  The GFS has been showing this consistently oddly enough.  These situations are tricky early on in the season without a snow cover to our north but as we have seen already this season, storms are stronger/wetter as the event approaches, esp ones that take this dominant Storm Track. where the seasons Long Term Long Wave Trough has been established.

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Interesting little ULL on the data for tomorrow trucking through KS. Has some 2-4 inch totals out there. Weird thing is as the storm approaches, it falls apart before it hits KC. We have seen this happen often in KC the first 47 days of the new LRC. 20 percent of normal precipitation in 47 days.

 

If the pattern is cycling, how can we not expect more of the same in future cycles?

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Interesting little ULL on the data for tomorrow trucking through KS. Has some 2-4 inch totals out there. Weird thing is as the storm approaches, it falls apart before it hits KC. We have seen this happen often in KC the first 47 days of the new LRC. 20 percent of normal precipitation in 47 days.

 

If the pattern is cycling, how can we not expect more of the same in future cycles?

Seasonal differences for one.  Many areas around KC have not been dry (me for instance).  Several wet storms have been very close and will likely hit as the season rolls on.

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