OmahaSnowFan Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 That may not be the most accurate run ever. Looks like it glitches. One thing that is evident, there is a ton of moisture down the road.I'd say it could be "glitches" if it wasn't matching up with the other models showing a weaker solution.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 18z gfs still hitting here but definitely weaker. Euro might be on to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2019 Report Share Posted November 20, 2019 That may not be the most accurate run ever. Looks like it glitches. One thing that is evident, there is a ton of moisture down the road.The whole model is a glitch, unfortunately. Yeah the moisture coming up with the Friday system now. Wowzers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Kinda shocked that my office seems bullish on next week.. The active pattern continues next week and holiday travel seemsdestined to be affected by a storm on Wednesday. The ECMWF istrending further east and colder with accumulating snow possible.The GFS is further west with mostly rain. Plenty of ensemblespread here as expected in a rapidly evolving pattern, but theoverall theme is this will be a big storm and will likely causesome disruption to travel on Wednesday. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Kinda shocked that my office seems bullish on next week..Models are slowly starting to see that block. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Models are slowly starting to see that block. Perhaps, just odd that GRR suddenly does as well 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Perhaps, just odd that GRR suddenly does as well Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 I’ll take the GFS and Icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 I’ll take the GFS and Icon ICON's the front-end dump for sure!. I like the amped GFS tho still too warm here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Wow, just when I thought the GFS couldn't be more of a joke. I went from having 28 inches modeled a day ago to 0 on tonight's run. That is seriously an embarrassment especially after an 'upgrade'. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Well that was fun while it lasted... On to the next. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Euro is a big fat nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yep- and i don't have much faith in the Euro coming around to the GFS. If anything the GFS is slowly giving in also. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 How do I delete another persons thread Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yeah that storm went bye bye Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 To no ones surprise; the GFS 06Z continues to the show the system and in fact gives many on here significant snows. The $64,000 question is when does it (GFS) realize its totally wrong? we've been through this before this season with the GFS totally out to lunch- several times just since OCT. I say 18Z run Saturday. This thread should be changed to "When will the GFS cave?" 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 DMX's take- /Monday through Wednesday/...Confidence: LowLarge differences between the evolution of the Euro vs. GFSdeterministic models remain into next week; though some themes arebeginning to develop. Both the GFS and Euro recognize that a wavewill be amplifying Tuesday into Wednesday. However, the arrival ofcolder air in the northern stream in the Euro model already bymidday Monday drops the baroclinic zone into the lower Ohio Valleyby midday Tuesday. The GFS, however, never brings the cold air southinitially and this keeps the baroclinic zone over Iowa. The netresult for the GFS is surface low amplification over Iowa northeastinto lower Michigan while the Euro remains much farther southeastand keeps our area dry. It`s no real surprise that the models arestruggling to reach any consistency in solutions/ensemble memberswith such an energetic pattern in the offing next week. Subsequentevolution of surface systems from Wednesday through week`s endhinges on the early week pattern evolution. For now, at least boththe Euro and GFS recognize a large H500 trough moving into thewestern US from the Pacific during the period from Wednesday throughnext weekend. This should trend to bring significant Gulf moistureand warmer conditions north into the Central Plains by Thursday intoSaturday. At this time, rain would be more likely from Iowa southwhile north of our area, a mixture may still be possible. HighsMonday through Wednesday will range from the 40s to lower 50soverall with lows in the 20s and 30s. The key to next week reallycomes down to how far south through Iowa the cold air can reachMonday. This should become more evident later on Friday and Saturdayas observational data begins to elucidate the differences in currentmodel projections. At that point, confidence in most of next weekshould increase. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 While trends are fading for the beast the models were flashing in earlier runs, there is still enough of a signal among the ensembles some peeps on here will be seeing wintry precip. IMO, as was the case with the Vet's Day system and other storms this season, I think the medium range chaos in the modeling is transpiring. Last night's 00z Ukie laid down a healthy swath of snow (4-8") from NE/IA/S MN/WI.... Both the 00z/06z GEFS still advertising a TX Panhandle cutter.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 How do I delete another persons threadNext to the quote button, you’ll see “more options”. Click that and you should see “delete user’s post”. It will ask if you want to delete it for just yourself or for the entire forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z Icon completely lost the Wed storm. GFS....you’re up next. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 ^ you beat me to it!!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 GFS still has it but further S and E. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Nice Chicago/Jaster hit on the GFS. Thermals are very iffy though. But at this rate is trending to an east coast storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 So this went from a direct hit to Central Nebraska to the Twin Cities to basically nothing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 NWS North Platte Nebraska Twitter says there is still a chance of a storm next week. We'll see. https://twitter.com/NWSNorthPlatte/status/1197556254618443776?s=20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z Ukie still has a storm... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 GFS ensenbles through black Friday look better. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Ukie has a lot of precip coming through, but temps look warm. I think this would be mostly rain. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/iowa/acc-total-precipitation/20191127-1200z.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Bam! 12z Euro back with a strong storm...TX Panhandle cutter into the OHV. On phone so dont have maps. Edit: I showed examples earlier this week where storms form in this “slot” of this years LRC. Hope this is a trend...storm is not cancelled! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Bam! 12z Euro back with a strong storm...TX Panhandle cutter into the OHV. On phone so dont have maps. Edit: I showed examples earlier this week where storms form in this “slot” of this years LRC. Hope this is a trend...storm is not cancelled! Can we just lock that in right now? Perfect for our area. A little too perfect. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 NW Indiana to Jaster crusher. Paging Jaster...your storm is calling. Still 132 hours to go but.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z Euro 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yep, Euro back in the game. Still slower than in recent days, it's 132 hours before the snow starts showing up in Missouri. So this likely won't be the last shift we see in placement, and strength. If it could get it's act together a little sooner it could be beneficial for more of us yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Bam! 12z Euro back with a strong storm...TX Panhandle cutter into the OHV. On phone so dont have maps. Edit: I showed examples earlier this week where storms form in this “slot” of this years LRC. Hope this is a trend...storm is not cancelled!12z euro at 144... 982mb just West of Cleveland or so..what a perfect track. Wheres Jaster??!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Can we just lock that in right now? Perfect for our area. A little too perfect. Thermals are iffy early on but those are details that can be ironed out later. I just hope the models keep showing a storm over the next few days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Thermals are iffy early on but those are details that can be ironed out later. I just hope the models keep showing a storm over the next few days.Now lets see if it trends colder, wetter, and maybe a couple of tics stronger. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 As that storm is approaching, a lot warm air out in front of it. Even when the storm arrives, we never drop below freezing in Missouri. Need a colder solution! Maybe we’ll trend that way 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Now lets see if it trends colder, wetter, and maybe a couple of tics stronger.Maybe the models will pick up on that lead wave tracking across the Upper MW that can pull down some colder air in front of it. The GFS has been showing this consistently oddly enough. These situations are tricky early on in the season without a snow cover to our north but as we have seen already this season, storms are stronger/wetter as the event approaches, esp ones that take this dominant Storm Track. where the seasons Long Term Long Wave Trough has been established. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Interesting little ULL on the data for tomorrow trucking through KS. Has some 2-4 inch totals out there. Weird thing is as the storm approaches, it falls apart before it hits KC. We have seen this happen often in KC the first 47 days of the new LRC. 20 percent of normal precipitation in 47 days. If the pattern is cycling, how can we not expect more of the same in future cycles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Interesting little ULL on the data for tomorrow trucking through KS. Has some 2-4 inch totals out there. Weird thing is as the storm approaches, it falls apart before it hits KC. We have seen this happen often in KC the first 47 days of the new LRC. 20 percent of normal precipitation in 47 days. If the pattern is cycling, how can we not expect more of the same in future cycles?Seasonal differences for one. Many areas around KC have not been dry (me for instance). Several wet storms have been very close and will likely hit as the season rolls on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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