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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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Maybe the models will pick up on that lead wave tracking across the Upper MW that can pull down some colder air in front of it.  The GFS has been showing this consistently oddly enough.  These situations are tricky early on in the season without a snow cover to our north but as we have seen already this season, storms are stronger/wetter as the event approaches, esp ones that take this dominant Storm Track. where the seasons Long Term Long Wave Trough has been established.

I would also think the NAO going negative would slow the progressive nature of the flow.

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Clinton, it’s been really dry in a large region around KC. Basically a line from Wichita KS up to NE Missouri, if you go north and west of there up to Omaha through southern NEB through most of KS down to Oklahoma City, you will find well below average precip for the first 47 days of the new LRC for many areas. Starting the LRC on Oct. 6th..that’s when Gary said it started.

 

I understand that your area south and east of the line I mentioned have done much better.

 

Isn’t the general idea or basis of the LRC to explain what we see now is likely what we will see in future cycles. Gary himself has said a million times over the years, “we know this storm will hit as it did in previous cycles” “this cooler then average pattern will return in 47 days based off the LRC”

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Clinton, it’s been really dry in a large region around KC. Basically a line from Wichita KS up to NE Missouri, if you go north and west of there up to Omaha through southern NEB through most of KS down to Oklahoma City, you will find well below average precip for the first 47 days of the new LRC for many areas. Starting the LRC on Oct. 6th..that’s when Gary said it started.

 

I understand that your area south and east of the line I mentioned have done much better.

 

Isn’t the general idea or basis of the LRC to explain what we see now is likely what we will see in future cycles. Gary himself has said a million times over the years, “we know this storm will hit as it did in previous cycles” “this cooler then average pattern will return in 47 days based off the LRC”

There will always be seasonal differences, each cycle will not behave the same due to strength and position of the jet stream, blocking and several other factors. 

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NW Indiana to Jaster crusher. Paging Jaster...your storm is calling. Still 132 hours to go but....

 

;)  :o  :D

 

12z euro at 144... 982mb just West of Cleveland or so..what a perfect track. Wheres Jaster??!!

 

Having busiest afternoon of my week when the Euro decides to drop this little gem, that's where.. :lol: . You gonna score that blocking you were beating a drum about buddy  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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per GRR:  2nd day in a row talking about it...not usual for them.  

 

Early next week still looks stormy and things have gotten more

interesting with today`s extended forecast guidance. Both the 12Z
GFS and ECMWF bring in cold air as a northern stream low tracks
through the northern Great Lakes while a southern stream wave
forms and moves northeast. Heavy precip is forecast in an area of
strong mid level f-gen over Lower Michigan. Of course the track
and strength of the low are far from certain at this point but the
ingredients are there for what could be a storm with wide ranging
impacts.

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Yep, Euro back in the game.  Still slower than in recent days, it's 132 hours before the snow starts showing up in Missouri.  So this likely won't be the last shift we see in placement, and strength.  If it could get it's act together a little sooner it could be beneficial for more of us yet. 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

per GRR:  2nd day in a row talking about it...not usual for them.  

 

Early next week still looks stormy and things have gotten more

interesting with today`s extended forecast guidance. Both the 12Z

GFS and ECMWF bring in cold air as a northern stream low tracks

through the northern Great Lakes while a southern stream wave

forms and moves northeast. Heavy precip is forecast in an area of

strong mid level f-gen over Lower Michigan. Of course the track

and strength of the low are far from certain at this point but the

ingredients are there for what could be a storm with wide ranging

impacts.

 

There's our keys, and like Tom says, based on the Long Wave trough pattern, prior trends with Vet's Day, etc. there is at least a "non zero" chance the needed pieces begin to fall in place. It is noteworthy if my office is barking at all from this range. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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May be a fantasy map, but it's certainly a colorful one!   :lol:

 

20191121 12z_Euro Surf_h144.png

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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;)  :o  :D

 

 

Having busiest afternoon of my week when the Euro decides to drop this little gem, that's where.. :lol: . You gonna score that blocking you were beating a drum about buddy  ;)

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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well well...about time!!! last year it seemed that all the good storms missed us and went just north of us.. lets see how this plays out its gonna be fun tracking this!

Yep, Euro back in the game.  Still slower than in recent days, it's 132 hours before the snow starts showing up in Missouri.  So this likely won't be the last shift we see in placement, and strength.  If it could get it's act together a little sooner it could be beneficial for more of us yet.  

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Not sure how the EPS mean looks like in between HR 120 & 144, but you can justify by these maps below the southern wave strengthens significantly as it tracks up towards the GL's. Arklatex Low???

 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

That N stream wave sets the stage with the cold air dropping in. The model(s) took a break from the non-stop Plains bombs to catch onto that. Dominos lining up again??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That N stream wave sets the stage with the cold air dropping in. The model(s) took a break from the non-stop Plains bombs to catch onto that. Dominos lining up again??

I'm telling ya buddy, that "slot" has been hot this year and we have already seen several similar set ups as such, with a lead N stream wave creating a boundary to which the storm will ride along up towards the OHV/GL's.  

 

LOT's early take...plenty of days to iron things out...

 

 

 

The

jet stream pattern across North America will become quite active

next week, so ingredients could come together to support a

stronger storm system across the central CONUS sometime around the

Tuesday into Wednesday. This continues to be hinted at by

operational runs and several ensemble members. However,

uncertainty remains far too high to be confident in any

specifics. Recent runs of the operational forecast guidance have

trended farther east with the track of a potential storm system

over the region next Tuesday into Wednesday. In fact, the most

recent 12z runs of both the GFS and ECMWF would be very concerning

for our area Tuesday into Wednesday for snow and wind. However,

due to the wide spread in ensemble guidance and the large

fluctuations in guidance over the past few days, it is clear that

at this time range there is lower predictability in how the

atmospheric will evolve over the region. For this reason, it is

hard to envision the model solutions not continuing to waver

significantly in subsequence runs. Until a better depiction of

the storm system next week is obtained, we will continue with

chance POPs over the area.

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;)  :o  :D

 

 

Having busiest afternoon of my week when the Euro decides to drop this little gem, that's where.. :lol: . You gonna score that blocking you were beating a drum about buddy  ;)

;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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According to AccuWeather,

 

At least three major storms are expected to hit various parts of the United States before the upcoming holiday. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast could see a "wintry mix" of snow and rain as early as this weekend and it will only get worse from there.

Beginning on Tuesday, a "significant and potentially very disruptive" storm could deliver heavy snow across a 1,200-mile stretch of the heartland. This winter weather is predicted to spread from Colorado all the way up to parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan by midweek.

 

Folks, its going to get fun here in the coming days!! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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APX reminds us that the energy driving the storm's formation is still 1,000 miles away! Just gonna chill-ax and see what things do after 48 hrs

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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UK has shifted well north.... defo band from Siouxland through southern Minnesota into Wisconsin... not very strong.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice to see the Euro/Ukie/GGEM/GFS still showing a storm...

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

Not to mention, but have no Fear, the JMA is Here as well....

 

jma_T850_us_6.png

 

jma_T850_us_7.png

 

 

 

I wonder what @Snowstorm83 is thinking after he deleted this thread????  Might want to re-consider his approach when tracking a storm 5+ days out!

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Good points Tom. How humbling ma nature can be!! Interesting developments obviously overnight. DMX mentioned the possibility of the NW shift, will see. I think they mentioned that the late OCT system and I believe it actually tracked SE. Anyway if Clinton can post that EPS mean that would be awesome and later on I will start posting Kucera Euro ( if I don't jnyx it).

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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One thing that could happen if this is related to the Oct 9th-13th part of the pattern is the 2nd wave could become the bigger storm.  In Oct the lead wave was the weaker one and the second wave became the beast that occluded over Minn. just something to keep in mind if the Tuesday night storm trends weaker, no need to freak out.  Several of the Euro ensembles hint at this.

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Well it was fun for a few hours. Stays green here. Speaking of that the grass is still very lush and green.

It gets better by next weekend as the cold air rushes in.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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APX reminds us that the energy driving the storm's formation is still 1,000 miles away! Just gonna chill-ax and see what things do after 48 hrs

People live and die too much on every model run. There’s no way any model can figure this out this far in advance. It’s just their best guess. I’d say we’ll see some better consensus by Saturday or Sunday. Until then, I like your approach. Grab a beer and watch the mayhem.

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People live and die too much on every model run. There’s no way any model can figure this out this far in advance. It’s just their best guess. I’d say we’ll see some better consensus by Saturday or Sunday. Until then, I like your approach. Grab a beer and watch the mayhem.

Totally agree with this. Watch the following of not even 48 hours and we are supposed to believe models out to 120 hours and nail the rain./ snow line over a county or two?  Not happening. Have a beer and some jerky and call it. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/NHC/COMP/&NUMBLOOP=16

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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People live and die too much on every model run. There’s no way any model can figure this out this far in advance. It’s just their best guess. I’d say we’ll see some better consensus by Saturday or Sunday. Until then, I like your approach. Grab a beer and watch the mayhem.

 

I admit I can fall trap to this sometimes.  With this storm in particular model solutions have varied so greatly from run to run, there truly is no confidence in any solution.  The good news the storm is showing back up on all models after the Euro and others dropped it completely for a couple days.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see significant shifts up to 48 hours out or even within that with this one.  

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GRR already siding with the EURO.  RAIN for Michigan.

 

The next weather maker is low that will approach from the southwest
Tuesday. ECMWF ensembles suggest this will be another wind maker and
perhaps stronger than yesterday`s storm. The euro is a bit farther
west than the gfs and so places West MI in the warm sector and
pushes the snow over northern Lower. The gfs is farther south and
would dump some snow over the cwa. The Canadian model leans toward
the euro and so will we.
Thus, we`re looking at mainly rain Tuesday.

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