Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Maybe the models will pick up on that lead wave tracking across the Upper MW that can pull down some colder air in front of it. The GFS has been showing this consistently oddly enough. These situations are tricky early on in the season without a snow cover to our north but as we have seen already this season, storms are stronger/wetter as the event approaches, esp ones that take this dominant Storm Track. where the seasons Long Term Long Wave Trough has been established.I would also think the NAO going negative would slow the progressive nature of the flow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Seasonal differences for one. Many areas around KC have not been dry (me for instance). Several wet storms have been very close and will likely hit as the season rolls on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Clinton, it’s been really dry in a large region around KC. Basically a line from Wichita KS up to NE Missouri, if you go north and west of there up to Omaha through southern NEB through most of KS down to Oklahoma City, you will find well below average precip for the first 47 days of the new LRC for many areas. Starting the LRC on Oct. 6th..that’s when Gary said it started. I understand that your area south and east of the line I mentioned have done much better. Isn’t the general idea or basis of the LRC to explain what we see now is likely what we will see in future cycles. Gary himself has said a million times over the years, “we know this storm will hit as it did in previous cycles” “this cooler then average pattern will return in 47 days based off the LRC” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Clinton, it’s been really dry in a large region around KC. Basically a line from Wichita KS up to NE Missouri, if you go north and west of there up to Omaha through southern NEB through most of KS down to Oklahoma City, you will find well below average precip for the first 47 days of the new LRC for many areas. Starting the LRC on Oct. 6th..that’s when Gary said it started. I understand that your area south and east of the line I mentioned have done much better. Isn’t the general idea or basis of the LRC to explain what we see now is likely what we will see in future cycles. Gary himself has said a million times over the years, “we know this storm will hit as it did in previous cycles” “this cooler then average pattern will return in 47 days based off the LRC”There will always be seasonal differences, each cycle will not behave the same due to strength and position of the jet stream, blocking and several other factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Here are the 12z Euro ensembles and mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The 18z NAM is doing the same thing. Showing 2-5 inches of snow from NW Texas up through central KS with tomorrow system and then a total poof before it gets to KC. Anybody know why?? Crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 NW Indiana to Jaster crusher. Paging Jaster...your storm is calling. Still 132 hours to go but.... 12z euro at 144... 982mb just West of Cleveland or so..what a perfect track. Wheres Jaster??!! Having busiest afternoon of my week when the Euro decides to drop this little gem, that's where.. . You gonna score that blocking you were beating a drum about buddy 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The 18z NAM is doing the same thing. Showing 2-5 inches of snow from NW Texas up through central KS with tomorrow system and then a total poof before it gets to KC. Anybody know why?? Crazy.It changes to rain.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 per GRR: 2nd day in a row talking about it...not usual for them. Early next week still looks stormy and things have gotten moreinteresting with today`s extended forecast guidance. Both the 12ZGFS and ECMWF bring in cold air as a northern stream low tracksthrough the northern Great Lakes while a southern stream waveforms and moves northeast. Heavy precip is forecast in an area ofstrong mid level f-gen over Lower Michigan. Of course the trackand strength of the low are far from certain at this point but theingredients are there for what could be a storm with wide rangingimpacts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yep, Euro back in the game. Still slower than in recent days, it's 132 hours before the snow starts showing up in Missouri. So this likely won't be the last shift we see in placement, and strength. If it could get it's act together a little sooner it could be beneficial for more of us yet. per GRR: 2nd day in a row talking about it...not usual for them. Early next week still looks stormy and things have gotten moreinteresting with today`s extended forecast guidance. Both the 12ZGFS and ECMWF bring in cold air as a northern stream low tracksthrough the northern Great Lakes while a southern stream waveforms and moves northeast. Heavy precip is forecast in an area ofstrong mid level f-gen over Lower Michigan. Of course the trackand strength of the low are far from certain at this point but theingredients are there for what could be a storm with wide rangingimpacts. There's our keys, and like Tom says, based on the Long Wave trough pattern, prior trends with Vet's Day, etc. there is at least a "non zero" chance the needed pieces begin to fall in place. It is noteworthy if my office is barking at all from this range. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 May be a fantasy map, but it's certainly a colorful one! 7 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 May be a fantasy map, but it's certainly a colorful one! 20191121 12z_Euro Surf_h144.png Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Having busiest afternoon of my week when the Euro decides to drop this little gem, that's where.. . You gonna score that blocking you were beating a drum about buddy Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 well well...about time!!! last year it seemed that all the good storms missed us and went just north of us.. lets see how this plays out its gonna be fun tracking this!Yep, Euro back in the game. Still slower than in recent days, it's 132 hours before the snow starts showing up in Missouri. So this likely won't be the last shift we see in placement, and strength. If it could get it's act together a little sooner it could be beneficial for more of us yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Not sure how the EPS mean looks like in between HR 120 & 144, but you can justify by these maps below the southern wave strengthens significantly as it tracks up towards the GL's. Arklatex Low??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Not sure how the EPS mean looks like in between HR 120 & 144, but you can justify by these maps below the southern wave strengthens significantly as it tracks up towards the GL's. Arklatex Low??? That N stream wave sets the stage with the cold air dropping in. The model(s) took a break from the non-stop Plains bombs to catch onto that. Dominos lining up again?? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 That N stream wave sets the stage with the cold air dropping in. The model(s) took a break from the non-stop Plains bombs to catch onto that. Dominos lining up again??I'm telling ya buddy, that "slot" has been hot this year and we have already seen several similar set ups as such, with a lead N stream wave creating a boundary to which the storm will ride along up towards the OHV/GL's. LOT's early take...plenty of days to iron things out... Thejet stream pattern across North America will become quite activenext week, so ingredients could come together to support astronger storm system across the central CONUS sometime around theTuesday into Wednesday. This continues to be hinted at byoperational runs and several ensemble members. However,uncertainty remains far too high to be confident in anyspecifics. Recent runs of the operational forecast guidance havetrended farther east with the track of a potential storm systemover the region next Tuesday into Wednesday. In fact, the mostrecent 12z runs of both the GFS and ECMWF would be very concerningfor our area Tuesday into Wednesday for snow and wind. However,due to the wide spread in ensemble guidance and the largefluctuations in guidance over the past few days, it is clear thatat this time range there is lower predictability in how theatmospheric will evolve over the region. For this reason, it ishard to envision the model solutions not continuing to waversignificantly in subsequence runs. Until a better depiction ofthe storm system next week is obtained, we will continue withchance POPs over the area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Having busiest afternoon of my week when the Euro decides to drop this little gem, that's where.. . You gonna score that blocking you were beating a drum about buddy 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Wow dakotas gets blown up on the gfs run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 According to AccuWeather, At least three major storms are expected to hit various parts of the United States before the upcoming holiday. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast could see a "wintry mix" of snow and rain as early as this weekend and it will only get worse from there.Beginning on Tuesday, a "significant and potentially very disruptive" storm could deliver heavy snow across a 1,200-mile stretch of the heartland. This winter weather is predicted to spread from Colorado all the way up to parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan by midweek. Folks, its going to get fun here in the coming days!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 APX reminds us that the energy driving the storm's formation is still 1,000 miles away! Just gonna chill-ax and see what things do after 48 hrs 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Gem with a 987 L over S Lake MI https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=ncus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019112200&fh=126 Icon pretty similar but weaker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 UK has shifted well north.... defo band from Siouxland through southern Minnesota into Wisconsin... not very strong. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Euro also going north 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Gfs and euro nearly identical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Nice to see the Euro/Ukie/GGEM/GFS still showing a storm... Not to mention, but have no Fear, the JMA is Here as well.... I wonder what @Snowstorm83 is thinking after he deleted this thread???? Might want to re-consider his approach when tracking a storm 5+ days out! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Good points Tom. How humbling ma nature can be!! Interesting developments obviously overnight. DMX mentioned the possibility of the NW shift, will see. I think they mentioned that the late OCT system and I believe it actually tracked SE. Anyway if Clinton can post that EPS mean that would be awesome and later on I will start posting Kucera Euro ( if I don't jnyx it). 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 EPS snow mean through 6z Fridayhttps://maps.weatherbell.com/view/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg?d=conus&p=mslp_anom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Euro ensembles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Wow those are very bla 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 One thing that could happen if this is related to the Oct 9th-13th part of the pattern is the 2nd wave could become the bigger storm. In Oct the lead wave was the weaker one and the second wave became the beast that occluded over Minn. just something to keep in mind if the Tuesday night storm trends weaker, no need to freak out. Several of the Euro ensembles hint at this. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Well it was fun for a few hours. Stays green here. Speaking of that the grass is still very lush and green. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Well it was fun for a few hours. Stays green here. Speaking of that the grass is still very lush and green.It gets better by next weekend as the cold air rushes in. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 APX reminds us that the energy driving the storm's formation is still 1,000 miles away! Just gonna chill-ax and see what things do after 48 hrsPeople live and die too much on every model run. There’s no way any model can figure this out this far in advance. It’s just their best guess. I’d say we’ll see some better consensus by Saturday or Sunday. Until then, I like your approach. Grab a beer and watch the mayhem. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 People live and die too much on every model run. There’s no way any model can figure this out this far in advance. It’s just their best guess. I’d say we’ll see some better consensus by Saturday or Sunday. Until then, I like your approach. Grab a beer and watch the mayhem.Totally agree with this. Watch the following of not even 48 hours and we are supposed to believe models out to 120 hours and nail the rain./ snow line over a county or two? Not happening. Have a beer and some jerky and call it. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/NHC/COMP/&NUMBLOOP=16 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 People live and die too much on every model run. There’s no way any model can figure this out this far in advance. It’s just their best guess. I’d say we’ll see some better consensus by Saturday or Sunday. Until then, I like your approach. Grab a beer and watch the mayhem. I admit I can fall trap to this sometimes. With this storm in particular model solutions have varied so greatly from run to run, there truly is no confidence in any solution. The good news the storm is showing back up on all models after the Euro and others dropped it completely for a couple days. I wouldn't be surprised if we see significant shifts up to 48 hours out or even within that with this one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 It’s funny yesterday’s early gfs runs had like 35 inches for sc Minnesota but by the end of the day it was showing an inch or less. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Looks like something is trying to brew up on the icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 One thing I’ve noticed on the last few runs is that the northern piece of energy traversing the Canadian border this weekend is moving quicker to the east and seems to get out of the way in time for the Wed storm to move NE (i.e. less suppressed). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 GRR already siding with the EURO. RAIN for Michigan. The next weather maker is low that will approach from the southwestTuesday. ECMWF ensembles suggest this will be another wind maker andperhaps stronger than yesterday`s storm. The euro is a bit fartherwest than the gfs and so places West MI in the warm sector andpushes the snow over northern Lower. The gfs is farther south andwould dump some snow over the cwa. The Canadian model leans towardthe euro and so will we. Thus, we`re looking at mainly rain Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.