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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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I'll be honest. When Tom first mentioned a November cold wave similar to 2014 I cringed inside. That one 5 yrs ago was such a slap with the Storm Watch GRR had me under being a bust, then what followed in December. At least this time I was treated to an historic storm (shoulda been my warning I didn't get in '14) and legit winter conditions for several days afterwards. Now we wait to see just how it goes for the lame December portion.

Im not complaining. It is November. But nothing I’ve experienced is anything historic for my area. One big storm for sure melted quickly. But everything else is blah. No snow in forecast. I’m just hearing hype again with limited results. 2014 was the epitome of historic. Cutter after cutter coming up is just plain normal.

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UK also now showing a stronger low passing through southeast Iowa, so we're seeing more agreement.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hello from Indianapolis! On our way to North Carolina for Thanksgiving week. Good luck to everyone with the storm! I'll try checking in from time to time.

Safe travels my friend!  Have a great time in the south and while your down there, feast on some good ol' southern food!  I'm a big foodie and I hear their BBQ is amazing.

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Overnight runs are coming together and showing a rather potent and wound up storm system.  00z Euro gets it down into the 980's right over head and lays down a nice swath of accumulating snow.  Lot's of peeps on here will be enjoying a "White Thanksgiving."  Nice bullseye over OMA....and into NE IA/SW WI....heck, it may even snow AGAIN for some of the same people on Thanksgiving as "over-running" snows develop in the Plains/MW.

 

This has been a fascinating few days tracking this storm when the models were going back and forth showing no storm, a big storm, weak storm...utilizing pattern recognition and "knowing" some important clues on how this season has stacked up thus far, I'm glad that this storm is coming together.

 

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

 

snod.conus.png

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Overnight model runs weren’t friendly to those of us in eastern Iowa. It’s amazing how often the highway 30 to I80 corridor tends to be right on the rain/snow line. Obviously shifts in the track are very likely and it could shift further south but my hunch with such warm air in place and the possibility of a strengthening negatively tilted system is that the trend would be to shift further NW rather than the SE shift I need. I’m hoping my parents in NE Iowa cash in at least and I’ll get to see the snow piles when I visit for thanksgiving

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Good morning from Branson.  Had a minute so I thought I would share last nights EPS mean.  Also the 6z trended further south for Tuesday.

1575763200-se52b4k8uQY.png

1575763200-ztfdNw7mrvk.png

1575763200-jERWDSYGXIw.png

Thanks bud! Have fun there!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Ya know whats funny amigo, remember bout 2 or 3 years ago, not sure when (cant remember, maybe you can) where a model came out showing snowfall accumulations of 25"+ :lol: and then, 2 days later, all gone, zilch snowfall. This kinda had flashbacks.   :rolleyes:

 

/\ Thx Clinton! Have fun in Branson for your holiday! NMI looking snowy on that 360 hr map  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Overnight model runs weren’t friendly to those of us in eastern Iowa. It’s amazing how often the highway 30 to I80 corridor tends to be right on the rain/snow line. Obviously shifts in the track are very likely and it could shift further south but my hunch with such warm air in place and the possibility of a strengthening negatively tilted system is that the trend would be to shift further NW rather than the SE shift I need. I’m hoping my parents in NE Iowa cash in at least and I’ll get to see the snow piles when I visit for thanksgiving

 

Yep.  If there is not much cold air out in front of a system, it's difficult for southeast Iowa to get snow.  In this case, northern Iowa and southern Minnesota are climatologically favored.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Im not complaining. It is November. But nothing I’ve experienced is anything historic for my area. One big storm for sure melted quickly. But everything else is blah. No snow in forecast. I’m just hearing hype again with limited results. 2014 was the epitome of historic. Cutter after cutter coming up is just plain normal.

 

It was, but ONLY for areas that got hit good with the LES. The rest of us endured useless cold, lol 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Too warm this week...lots of good moisture heading towards the Plains and Midwest this week. Areas getting snow early on in the week will be quickly taking over by a warm surge and rain.

 

Too bad we don’t have a good cold air mass in place as we could have really laid down a great snow pack across many areas.

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