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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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Nice map. So far, GRR has "breezy" in my grid for wednesday despite the AFD wording I posted last night. 

:lol:

 

Meanwhile, we will have strong winds gusts near or better than 40mph.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yes. Most I’ve had is a little over 2” in a single event

We haven’t seen more than 1” here in Omaha from one event (around 2 inches total for the season so far), and I have doubts that we will see much more than that from this week’s system.

 

I am actually okay with this storm staying away from us this week - we have a busy mid to late week ahead with holiday travel and family activities.

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We haven’t seen more than 1” here in Omaha, and I doubt we will see much more than that from this system... I am okay with this storm staying away from us this week - have a very busy week ahead of work and family activities.

I could not agree more with you on this amigo. Same here. Have family and friends coming from NY and California, so, I want the weather to cooperate as well. Afterall, don't want all that food to go to waste, if noone doesn't come due to inclement weather. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GEM stronger and increased totals for most of NE and MN.

 

Every 12z GEFS member is pretty much in line with the op GFS. In addition, every single member is also showing the weekend storm as well. Pretty incredible similarities.

 

'grats SPS, you're gonna rake dude. NW trend's your friend buddy - enjoy the ride (remember, I said you'd get your $$'s worth, lol)  ;)  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Winter Storm Watch for me.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE

200 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

 

...Winter Storm Tuesday...

 

NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>075-082>084-250930-

/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0004.191126T1500Z-191127T0300Z/

Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-

Hamilton-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-

Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,

Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,

St. Libory, Central City, Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island,

Gothenburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, Elwood, Johnson Lake,

Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford,

Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell,

and Hildreth

200 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8

inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could

significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could

impact the evening commute and pre-holiday travel.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected mid day

Tuesday into Tuesday evening. This will be a heavy, wet

snowfall.

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Thanks. Looking good but still plenty of time for unwanted changes. Can never be too sure what’s going to happen.

 

Here’s the 12z Euro

 

;)  Nah, you're 2 days out, the King's been rock steady for a couple of days now. NAM over-amping cuz that's how it works at this range. Did the same here with Vet's Day, only to calm down about 24 hrs out. You're locked-n-loaded my friend.  B)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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APX:

 

SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday night)

Issued at 251 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...Classic "November Gale" to impact the region the middle of this
week...

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gosh APX's write-ups put my office to shame.

 

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Quite the energetic pattern starting to

take shape this afternoon as mature and intense upper jet core and
attendant mid level shortwave trough dig southeast across the Gulf
of Alaska, with the nose of that upper jet already pushing into the
Pacific Northwest. While not quite as intense, elongated subtropical
jet only adding to the complexities as it stretches across the
southern states into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Eventual merger of
these upper jet cores will help sharpen and organize that mid level
shortwave trough as it digs into vicinity the four-corners area
overnight Monday. This system will continue to mature, with it and a
rapidly developing surface response making a run into the Great
Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pattern recognition
strongly supports guidance trends of a very deep and energetic storm
system, resulting in a classic November Gale bringing a myriad of
impacts to the Great Lakes region during the period.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z NAM trying to up my Nov snow total via the backside lake moisture:

 

20191124 18z nam h84 Snow SLR.PNG

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think it’s conceivable that we get only an inch from this storm and then rain with maybe a few flurries from the big one this weekend. It was cold to start the month but it’s looking like we’ll head into December with no snow on the ground and only 2.5-3” of snow for the season. Only will have snowed twice here this month too. Pretty close to average probably so nothing too extreme except of course the cold to begin the month.

 

Perfect track for the low here dry air and warm sigh

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Yeah it’s disappointing but not surprising. The storm track which buries was the entire state north and west of Omaha/Lincoln is a story as old as time. Just hoping we can score big in Jan/Feb when it matters the most.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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OmahaSnowFan...

 

NEW DATA coming out soon, let’s see if you can get at SE shift. You don’t need much of a shift to get into some good snowfall Tuesday night.

 

One thing is for sure, you are more in the game then us down here in KC. Pretty normal for us to miss snow storms to our NW in November.

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Yeah it’s disappointing but not surprising. The storm track which buries was the entire state north and west of Omaha/Lincoln is a story as old as time. Just hoping we can score big in Jan/Feb when it matters the most.

I hate to say it, but things were bound to retreat more back to normal after last winter's snowy craziness around here. 

 

To expect back to back years with way above average snowfall isn't being very realistic around here. Getting big snowstorms in this part of Nebraska\Iowa is difficult in November, this is the month we have been missed to the north by 50-100 miles probably the most out of any. I think getting 1-3 inches of snow from this week's system seems to be a solid bet to me. 

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18z Euro

1574866800-Jx8wkMyvqAo.png

Right over my house with those large amounts. Colleges get out on Tuesday for Thanksgiving. Lots of travel that day. Our daughter is concerned about her drive home as are we. Probably will be school closures if the forecasted wind along with these accumulations lead to poor visibilities.

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Right over my house with those large amounts. Colleges get out on Tuesday for Thanksgiving. Lots of travel that day. Our daughter is concerned about her drive home as are we. Probably will be school closures if the forecasted wind along with these accumulations lead to poor visibilities.

The way things look now maybe she could wait a day.  It would be nice if the school would close in advance.

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