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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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Meanwhile, on the non-snowy end of things there are other concerns and headlines going up. Just a really bad time to have record high lake levels and a season with bombing storms coming right thru the GL's. There's trouble in paradise for those lakeside property owners here in WMI. 

 

GRR AFD tidbit:

 

Both ensemble and deterministic model data continue to suggest the
storm on Wednesday will carry significant impacts along the
lakeshore with high confidence in a storm path west and northwest of
Lower Michigan. Without getting too into the weeds in model details,
ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to tick upward with respect to the
potential for high winds with ensemble mean peak wind gusts >50 kts (>57 mph)

at Muskegon and Holland and sustained winds supportive of waves
larger than 10 feet. It`s worth noting the signal we`re seeing in
model guidance suggests this storm will be stronger than any other
storm we`ve had so far this fall.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It’s gonna be a matter of 20 miles for me with snow versus no snow. Seen this many of times where Platte River is dividing line. I hate cutting it this close but at least there is a chance and it’s only November.

 

Per those Euro snow maps and Omaha's own disco, you should fall into this area. Better than a complete shut-out. 

 

 

 

Hazards: 4 to 7 inches of snow possible within the Watch area, trace amounts up to 4” expected south of the watch, along with gusty north winds potentially impacting travel.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Winds will get very gusty here in SEMI Wednesday afternoon and evening. I am expecting a "High Wind Warning" by Tuesday afternoon.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per those Euro snow maps and Omaha's own disco, you should fall into this area. Better than a complete shut-out. 

I expect to be in at least a WWA when the warning packages come out tomorrow. Just crazy seeing the watch to the west and north of me by one county even though all models have my county getting 6+. Many times when this happens either the warning gets moved further west or I'm included. Will be an interesting day tomorrow as the models continue to narrow in on a consensus. 

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Nice! NAM's gonna settle down a bit and NOT push things NW like it always wants to. This will help those like gabel, and if I'm seeing things right it already has. This should be a sweet storm with a very fast ramp-up in intensity. Thing drops 12 mb in like 6 hrs. This is not your mamby-pamby over-running event. This will be a STORM. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..and LOL @ being included in the snow fall map. I need 0.2" to hit an even 8" for the month. Gunning for it with the backside!  :P

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I expect to be in at least a WWA when the warning packages come out tomorrow. Just crazy seeing the watch to the west and north of me by one county even though all models have my county getting 6+. Many times when this happens either the warning gets moved further west or I'm included. Will be an interesting day tomorrow as the models continue to narrow in on a consensus. 

 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well but looking closely it seems that the NAM has you in the 6+ and if winds are strong enough, you may just go into a warning! I think this will have a better shot at a nasty wrap-around compared to more run-of-the-mill SLP's we are used to seeing. Good luck! I'll be looking to see what headlines are in the morning. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Now I am finally included in the (40-50mph) color. I was expecting that.

 

Screen-Shot-2019-11-24-at-2.43.23-PM.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well but looking closely it seems that the NAM has you in the 6+ and if winds are strong enough, you may just go into a warning! I think this will have a better shot at a nasty wrap-around compared to more run-of-the-mill SLP's we are used to seeing. Good luck! I'll be looking to see what headlines are in the morning. 

Thanks Jaster, I love these type of set ups as things tend to change right up until the event starts! I'm impressed with the strength that the GFS and Nam have shown tonight. Both get this storm down below 990 mb. GFS looks like it's having convective issues/thermal feedback with its run. 

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Now I am finally included in the (40-50mph) color. I was expecting that.

 

Screen-Shot-2019-11-24-at-2.43.23-PM.png

 

I can see it now. Gonna get a "breeze advisory" here from my office.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man, central UP of Michigan in for a pound-down! Wish I had a road trip up there Tue-Wed.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I can see it now. Gonna get a "breeze advisory" here from my office.  ;)

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Oh boyyyy, WINTER STORM WARNING hoisted for me and CentralNebWeather! Heavy snow wording in the grids. Christmas came early this year :D

You've been waiting a lonnng time for something appreciable and you may have gotten your wish!  Nice way to kick off the holiday.  Good luck out there!

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The Ski resorts up in the U.P are going to be lovin' this early season winter storm.  I remember back in the mid 90's, maybe it was Nov of '94, I went up to Indianhead Mtn Ski Resort for Thanksgiving with my older brother and his high school friends.  We had 2 feet of powder up there purely from Lake Effect snow.  It was such a beautiful site to see and one of the more memorable trips I took up there.  One of the places I'd like to visit are the Apostle Islands during the heart of Winter and go see the Ice Caves.  Should be a great year for that come January.

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The winds on the backside of this storm on Wednesday are going to be cranking around the GL's.  Models showing 45-55mph wind gusts out of the W/NW.  I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of us will be placed under a Wind Advisory or possibly Wind Warnings.  Pilots are going to have a bumpy ride for those traveling in & out of ORD/MKE.

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Thanks for the maps.  This is what local mets are using for their amounts in my opinion.  School administration already discussing what to do tomorrow.  Storm is supposed to start after school begins and last through about midnight here.  

Given the forcasted winds they should shut down.

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