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11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

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Word of caution. The SR models were a bit over-amped at this range on the last storm. They simmered down about 24 hrs out. Still, not sure how this isn't a bliz in hardest hit areas if it's indeed in the 980's with all that open land in the Corn Belt

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Ski resorts up in the U.P are going to be lovin' this early season winter storm.  I remember back in the mid 90's, maybe it was Nov of '94, I went up to Indianhead Mtn Ski Resort for Thanksgiving with my older brother and his high school friends.  We had 2 feet of powder up there purely from Lake Effect snow.  It was such a beautiful site to see and one of the more memorable trips I took up there.  One of the places I'd like to visit are the Apostle Islands during the heart of Winter and go see the Ice Caves.  Should be a great year for that come January.

 

Man, the UP's going to be bad, bad, bad. Considering much of that area already has some snow base OTG, and those are some stout totals off the Euro. Comes in a shorter time than the usual LES too. Add some near-bliz gusts and travel's going to be a rough go! 

 

Later this winter you should get up there. That's some serious "north country" my friend.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I see the 12z GFS had 11.5" for Omaha and the 6z has 0.4".  Quite the reliable model.  Honestly, it's sad what has become of the GFS.  The old GFS was far more reliable.  Just look at the snow maps on the GFS and you see all these weird holes of lower qpf that don't look like they below.  There is just something flat out wrong with it.  

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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One other item about the impending storm.  Today and tomorrow at Nebraska's Memorial Stadium is all 6 of the classes for the state championship football games.  Some schools that play tonight or tomorrow are not sending their cheerleaders, band, etc.  One being Scottsbluff.  They play tonight at 7:15 PM and it is about a 7 hour drive to Lincoln.  Here is a tweet from their all state QB.

 

https://twitter.com/HarshSabastian/status/1198979458180337665?s=20

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I am putting all my stock in the 12z WRF -- Hope it is onto something! I80 special?!

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112512&fh=37&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

GFS is showing that small pocket of enhanced amounts over the metro again like last night. Not the absurd amounts, but makes you wonder if it's onto something. Otherwise, yes the WRF is about our only hope of anything more than an inch or two.

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@ Niko

 

And you thought I was j/k..

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

This is more of a Head`s up sort of thing, based on the latest
model data and considering trends, I was planning on issuing a
high wind watch for our lake shore counties for Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Likely we would do a breeze advisory tomorrow for
the rest of our counties. The latest NAM has wind gusts near 50
knots with near the shore during the afternoon on Wednesday. The
ensemble be mean of the Ecmwf has 60 mph gusts at BIV, MKG, LWA
and more like 50 to 55 mph at AZO, BTL, GRR. There is excellent
model continuity on this wind event. From our office climate data
this could be one of the stronger wind events in more than a year.

 

:lol:  :lol:

 

Seriously, do NWS offices not have the word "windy" in their dictionaries?? 

 

20191125 GRR icons for windstorm.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro favoring the cold air to get here sooner. Maybe there is some hope.

Good luck.  Colleges in Central Nebraska already closing tomorrow, UNK and Hastings College closed Tuesday.  My daughter goes to UNK in Kearney and will be coming home this afternoon.  We are relieved that she wouldn't have to drive tomorrow.  Still waiting for the K-12 schools to start making decisions for tomorrow.

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Good luck. Colleges in Central Nebraska already closing tomorrow, UNK and Hastings College closed Tuesday. My daughter goes to UNK in Kearney and will be coming home this afternoon. We are relieved that she wouldn't have to drive tomorrow. Still waiting for the K-12 schools to start making decisions for tomorrow.

Awesome! And they will probably wait until 7 or 8 to make sure the forecast holds.
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I have relatives at deer camp near Baraga. Should be the best gun season bliz since 30 yrs ago!   ;)

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

MIZ001-003>007-085-251645-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.A.0006.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L`Anse,
Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry, and Seney
340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to
16 inches. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, highest along
the lakeshore.


* WHERE...Portions of central Upper and western Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to near impossible at
times. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and
evening commutes and holiday travelers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect greatly reduced visibility of a half
mile or less when the heavy snow arrives Wednesday morning.
Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions near the lakeshore. If
you must travel, keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle in
case of an emergency. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for
updates on this situation.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I have relatives at deer camp near Baraga. Should be the best gun season bliz since 30 yrs ago!   ;)

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Marquette MI

340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

 

MIZ001-003>007-085-251645-

/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.A.0006.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/

Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-

Northern Schoolcraft-

Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L`Anse,

Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry, and Seney

340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to

16 inches. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, highest along

the lakeshore.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central Upper and western Upper Michigan.

 

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to near impossible at

times. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce

visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and

evening commutes and holiday travelers.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect greatly reduced visibility of a half

mile or less when the heavy snow arrives Wednesday morning.

Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions near the lakeshore. If

you must travel, keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle in

case of an emergency. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for

updates on this situation.

Sweet!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18z NAM goes sub 990mb now even before entering S IA. Convective elements showing up still in MN and WI.

Surface conditions will be very hard to predict up until about this time tomorrow with those dynamics.  Anywhere free here to your area has a chance at some real pound town stuff tomorrow night.

 

Warnings should come with this cycle.

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18z NAM goes sub 990mb now even before entering S IA. Convective elements showing up still in MN and WI.

 

12z GEM has this at 980 mb south of your place!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:)  I got a headline! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Surface conditions will be very hard to predict up until about this time tomorrow with those dynamics. Anywhere free here to your area has a chance at some real pound town stuff tomorrow night.

 

Warnings should come with this cycle.

Warnings issued now but their wording doesn’t match their numbers.

 

NAM and 3km NAM now chucking a 12” touchdown.

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