11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm

[mschaben]

Hello!  I follow these posts, but rarely comment as I feel I don't have much to contribute.  I am in Omaha.  What is the latest with the timing of this event?

[Stormhunter87]

Hello! I follow these posts, but rarely comment as I feel I don't have much to contribute. I am in Omaha. What is the latest with the timing of this event?

If the change over does happen early it will be around noon - 1. If the not looking like 3-4pm.

[NH4NU]

Omaha and LNK just placed in Winter Wx Advisory for 2-4" and 40mph winds.

[OmahaSnowFan]

WWA issued and my point grid dropped to 1-3" with up to 40 mph winds. Zzzzzzz. Looks like a "nuisance" event around here. I always forget the upside to not having a big snow event, less shoveling to do.

[jaster220]

Hello Mr. Blizzard.

 

One year ago this week y'all out in the Plains got a blizzard. How copy-cat of the snow gods. You'd think maybe they'd mix it up a bit?? 

[CentralNebWeather]

Quite a few blizzards the last few years. Very flat and few trees so it is easy for the snow to blow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Story about the Scottsbluff team and most not coming to the championship football game tonight.

 

https://twitter.com/1011sports/status/1199088136749490177?s=21

[Stormhunter87]

Local Mets are following oax 1-3 but if that change over happens sooner it's going to be crazy here.

[jaster220]

First of many upgrades?? 

 

 

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
250 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2019

...HEAVY SNOW RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY...

.Potential winter storm is anticipated to bring heavy
accumulating snowfall and blowing snow to the area later today
through Tuesday.

WYZ116-261200-
/O.UPG.KCYS.WS.W.0019.000000T0000Z-191127T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KCYS.BZ.W.0004.191125T2150Z-191127T0100Z/
South Laramie Range-
Including the cities of Buford, Pumpkin Vine, and Vedauwoo
250 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of
15 to 25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...I-80 Summit, Buford and Vedauwoo

* WHEN...Until 6 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
blowing snow will most likely produce whiteout conditions,
especially tonight and Tuesday morning. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold
wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

 

 

  Wow..elevation ftw

[Stormhunter87]

Hrrr has the rain snow line alot closer to Omaha. This going to be a watcher.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think all K-12 schools west of Central Nebraska are closed tomorrow. Everyone taking this storm seriously.

[CentralNebWeather]

Took my snow blower out of storage and it started on the first pull. Life is good.

[snowstorm83]

OAX is saying 2-4", but I have a feeling it'll probably be less than 1. I just don't think we'll ever get the rates that allow for much accumulation, warm/dry air wins. Also, does anyone have an idea of what road conditions will be like across the state by Wednesday? I have some roommates planning to go from Lincoln to Scottsbluff but I'm not sure how cleared up I-80 and US 26 will be. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I feel the same way. HRRR and NAM models aren’t real promising.

 

OAX is saying 2-4", but I have a feeling it'll probably be less than 1. I just don't think we'll ever get the rates that allow for much accumulation, warm/dry air wins. Also, does anyone have an idea of what road conditions will be like across the state by Wednesday? I have some roommates planning to go from Lincoln to Scottsbluff but I'm not sure how cleared up I-80 and US 26 will be.

[Stormhunter87]

OAX is saying 2-4", but I have a feeling it'll probably be less than 1. I just don't think we'll ever get the rates that allow for much accumulation, warm/dry air wins. Also, does anyone have an idea of what road conditions will be like across the state by Wednesday? I have some roommates planning to go from Lincoln to Scottsbluff but I'm not sure how cleared up I-80 and US 26 will be.

Getting that feeling too. But I would just check Nebraska 511 webpage. We have to head to York and then drop south on Wednesday.

[St Paul Storm]

Took my snow blower out of storage and it started on the first pull. Life is good.

I have yet to do this. I kinda wish I had already.

[Stormhunter87]

All of the model trends for the Omaha area are just bad. Oh well I guess this is a loss here. Looking great for everyone else west and north of here.

[jcwxguy]

We still the the wrf lol

[snowstorm83]

We still the the wrf lol

 

We stan the WRF 

[CentralNebWeather]

I have yet to do this. I kinda wish I had already.

And to think 2 days ago I was mowing up the last of my leaves. Put the mower in the place of the snow blower. It’s all worked out well. Plus no school for us tomorrow so life is really good.

 

Hope all is well in the Twin Cities. Enjoyed our visit up there in 2016. Actually stayed at the Embassy Suites in St. Paul.

[St Paul Storm]

And to think 2 days ago I was mowing up the last of my leaves. Put the mower in the place of the snow blower. It’s all worked out well. Plus no school for us tomorrow so life is really good.

Hope all is well in the Twin Cities. Enjoyed our visit up there in 2016. Actually stayed at the Embassy Suites in St. Paul.

Same here. I had the leaf blower and lawn bags out on Saturday. It’s been a slow start to the snow season, but that’s about to change in a hurry. Glad you enjoyed your trip here! Stay safe down there and good luck with this storm. I look forward to hearing how it’s going tomorrow.

[Stormhunter87]

What it's worth the short range Canadian has actually upped our amounts lol

Edit: And wpc has actually just a little though.

[Bryan1117]

All of the model trends for the Omaha area are just bad. Oh well I guess this is a loss here. Looking great for everyone else west and north of here.

I mean we can't really say it's a loss though... this storm never appeared to be ours in the first place. Plus it's November, we either get missed to the north or south - I can't remember the last time we had an appreciable snow event in November. I think this system might have a few surprises, however being on the cutoff line never seems to work out in our favor in this area. 

 

Thank goodness it is early in the season, even though I have a feeling we are going to drop back to the mean this year and be around average or slightly below average snowfall-wise. Last year was way too far above average snowfall wise to think it will happen again.

[jaster220]

I mean we can't really say it's a loss though... this storm never appeared to be ours in the first place. Plus it's November, we either get missed to the north or south - I can't remember the last time we had an appreciable snow event in November. I think this system might have a few surprises, however being on the cutoff line never seems to work out in our favor in this area. 

 

Thank goodness it is early in the season, even though I have a feeling we are going to drop back to the mean this year and be around average or slightly below average snowfall-wise. Last year was way too far above average snowfall wise to think it will happen again.

 

Often, banner snow seasons come in pairs. I wouldn't be too quick to call winter bust b4 Turkey Day. This is hitting north of 90% of this sub's members, not just OMA peeps. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’m up to 2-6” total now in my grid point forecast. Still thinking it’ll be towards the lower end.

[Stormhunter87]

Whoa GFS and cmc jumping the totals here. Kinda pointless though being so close to the event. Edit: Even the euro pulling colder air in faster. Again shouldn't get my hopes up but interesting trend

[clintbeed1993]

Whoa GFS and cmc jumping the totals here. Kinda pointless though being so close to the event. Edit: Even the euro pulling colder air in faster. Again shouldn't get my hopes up but interesting trend

 

Short range models are the way to go now. We're within 12 hours of the event.

[Stormhunter87]

Short range models are the way to go now. We're within 12 hours of the event.

Definitely agree just interesting to see

[clintbeed1993]

Short range models looking nice. RAP and HRRR look reallly good. Juicy

[Grizzcoat]

Some of the HRES models are showing convective activity as far N as S.IA/C.IA-- not sure if this  has been mentioned - but this may zap some moisture further N and E and/or wrap (advect)  warmer air further N than what GFS/Euro show.  Something to think about. 

[Tom]

It has begun out in Denver....

 

Current conditions at Buckley Air Force Base Airport (KBKF)Lat: 39.71°NLon: 104.76°WElev: 5577ft.

Heavy Snow Blowing Snow and Breezy

24°F

[Tom]

This storm is turning out to be quite the compact beast...I mean, it's got everything going for it to become a powerful mid latitude storm system.  The radar should light up this afternoon/evening as the storm deepens and a trowal-like feature develops on radar.  This system is another classic example of how this year's Long Term Long Wave trough is clearly centered over the northern half of the Sub (esp near the MW/GL's region), although, at times it does develop farther south as well.

 

One of my long time friends just moved to the NW burbs of MSP (Maple Grove)...do we have any members that live close by??  I sent him a message last night that he's going to get rocked by this storm.  You guys up north should have quite the storm.  I'm hoping to see some of the squall lines and convective activity wrap up into the cold sector.  Thundersnow???  

[Tom]

Blizzard Warnings issued for parts of NE CO!

 

 

 

Blizzard Warnings URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
416 AM MST Tue Nov 26 2019

...HEAVY SNOW SPREADING FROM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO WITH WINDS INCREASING...

.Heavy snow that fell overnight from the Front Range mountains
across the Denver area and nearby plains spread across the rest of
northeastern Colorado during the early morning hours. The snow
will continue to spread eastward into Nebraska and northwest
Kansas today.

In the areas that have already received heavy snow, there were
some road closures, and side streets were becoming impassable.
Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly early this morning in
areas further east, from Limon to the northeast corner of the
state, as the heavy snow moves in.

The snow will end in areas near the Wyoming border around midday.
Around Denver heavy snow is expected this morning, then only
light snow is expected this afternoon. Heavy snow will likely
continue in areas south and west of Denver through at least the
early afternoon. On the plains, the snow will end from west to
east during the afternoon.

Winds will increase with gusts of around 30 mph near the
mountains, and up to 45 mph on the eastern plains, producing
extensive drifting and limiting visibility at times. Blizzard
conditions are expected over the eastern part of the plains and
south and southeast of Denver for several hours during the middle
of the day. Travel conditions will improve from west to east
during the afternoon as the snow moves eastward and winds decrease
late in the day.

Travel along the Front Range and in northeastern Colorado is
strongly discouraged until conditions improve later today.
Additional road closures are likely, and travel may become
impossible on rural roads and unplowed city streets.

This storm may be historic in the Fort Collins and Loveland areas
where 20 inches or more of snow is expected. That would put the
storm near the top 5 of all snow events there.

COZ041-042-044>046-048>051-261930-
/O.UPG.KBOU.WS.W.0017.000000T0000Z-191127T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.BZ.W.0005.191126T1116Z-191127T0000Z/
Castle Rock-Briggsdale-Fort Morgan-Byers-Limon-Sterling-Akron-
Julesburg-Holyoke-
Including the cities of Castle Rock, Elbert, Fondis, Kiowa,
Larkspur, Briggsdale, Grover, Pawnee Buttes, Raymer, Stoneham,
Brush, Fort Morgan, Goodrich, Wiggins, Bennett, Byers,
Deer Trail, Leader, Agate, Hugo, Limon, Matheson, Crook, Merino,
Sterling, Peetz, Akron, Cope, Last Chance, Otis, Julesburg, Ovid,
Sedgwick, Amherst, Haxtun, and Holyoke
416 AM MST Tue Nov 26 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 6
to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northeastern Colorado east of Briggsdale, Wiggins, Bennett,
and Castle Rock and north of Limon.

* WHEN...Heavy snow is expected this morning with increasing
winds. Conditions will improve from west to east this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult or impossible. Road
closures are expected and rural roads may become impassable.
Areas of blowing and drifting snow will significantly reduce
visibility.

[Stormy]

I'm hoping to score a thunderstorm if nothing else, but they likely would be brief since they'll be racing northeast at up to 60 mph. Actually it's just so I'm in the nw. fringe of a 'marginal' risk of severe storms (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) with a 'slight' risk up to the se. tip of Ia. I'm also still in the high wind watch for tomorrow with gusts to 50> mph possible.

 

Yesterday and Sunday were perfect for this time of the year with light winds and temps up to 57° on Sunday and 55° yesterday. The previous rainfall last week brought down most of the remaining leaves (it soaked 'em good then the wind came along) and allowed me to get my yard work finished for the most part.

[Tom]

@BrianJK, are you heading up to your place up north to take out the sleds???

[gosaints]

This storm is turning out to be quite the compact beast...I mean, it's got everything going for it to become a powerful mid latitude storm system.  The radar should light up this afternoon/evening as the storm deepens and a trowal-like feature develops on radar.  This system is another classic example of how this year's Long Term Long Wave trough is clearly centered over the northern half of the Sub (esp near the MW/GL's region), although, at times it does develop farther south as well.

 

One of my long time friends just moved to the NW burbs of MSP (Maple Grove)...do we have any members that live close by??  I sent him a message last night that he's going to get rocked by this storm.  You guys up north should have quite the storm.  I'm hoping to see some of the squall lines and convective activity wrap up into the cold sector.  Thundersnow???  

St. Paul Storm is in line for some solid stuff.

 

Like my chances at some thunder something.  No idea if it will be snow..

[Stormgeek]

[BrianJK]

@BrianJK, are you heading up to your place up north to take out the sleds???

I wish! But unfortunately have Thanksgiving at my in-laws this year. Really would have liked to been up there for this - looks like Eagle River has a decent chance at 12+. Trails don’t officially open until next month but still would’ve been nice to take it all in.

[St Paul Storm]

The first few lines have me excited: from MPX

 

The start of the snow should be a

pretty impressive sight to experience. This will be a combined

FGEN/WAA band with very strong fgen forcing. In addition, upright

instability will be coming up almost into southeast MN behind this

band, so this instability combined with the forcing will promote

intense snowfall rates. Basically, we`ll go from having

unrestricted visibilities, to visibilities of 1/2 mile or less in

about 30 minutes, with snow rates near 2" per hour expected.

Intense snow rates like this will only last for a couple of hours

before the WAA band lifts north and we transition to a more

traditional deformation band that will have more modest snow rates

of three quarters to one inch per hour for several hours.

Greatest uncertainty with this forecast is across west central

Minnesota and out toward Eau Claire. To the west, there`s still a

bit of spread with how far west higher QPF amounts get pulled with

this system, so there is potential for the forecast snow from

Willmar and Little Falls on west to be lower than currently

forecast. To the east of Eau Claire, it may stay warm enough to

introduce a prolonged period of a rain/snow mix, which may eat

away at final snow totals east of south of Eau Claire. In between,

it`s full steam ahead for 9-12" snowfall amounts.

[CentralNebWeather]

First flakes are now arriving right on schedule. Winds will continue to increase and be up to 45 MPH this evening. Impressive radar in Colorado that will be moving this direction all day. Latest forecast amounts still are for 8-12” in my area. Should be a fun day. Almost everything is closed in the western 1/2 of the state.