Jump to content

11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm


Tom

Recommended Posts

Historic event unfolding, two actually. The CA/OR border storm is a once in 40  or 50 yr deal per Medford, OR NWS AFD 

 

 

 

This storm may be historic in the Fort Collins and Loveland areas
where 20 inches or more of snow is expected. That would put the
storm near the top 5 of all snow events there.

 

These are the real-deal S Stream monster storms that have been MIA around the southern MW/OHV/GL's far too long. I sure hope they make a showing down here later in winter  ;)

  • Like 5

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Impressive radar returns out west. I’m liking where this is headed. The scene around here is going to be totally different this time tomorrow. My little guy woke up this morning and asked ‘Are we going to go sledding on Thanksgiving dad?’ You bet we are!

 

While we here in SCMI (KJXN to be specific) enjoyed several hours of 1/16 mi vis with last Jan's hybrid, it was of the small grain flake type that has become common it seems with NW flow systems. I miss the extreme forcing events your office is mentioning (and I remember from a by-gone era) when you get large flakes pouring down. It takes a dynamic system to generate those unique conditions and it sounds like you're in for a treat in that regard! 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While we here in SCMI (KJXN to be specific) enjoyed several hours of 1/16 mi vis with last Jan's hybrid, it was of the small grain flake type that has become common it seems with NW flow systems. I miss the extreme forcing events your office is mentioning (and I remember from a by-gone era) when you get large flakes pouring down. It takes a dynamic system to generate those unique conditions and it sounds like you're in for a treat in that regard!

 

Yeah pixie dust is always a concern. But like you said, this should be dynamic enough to avoid that. I think one of the best snowfalls I’ve ever seen was our April blizzard two years ago when we had thundersnow. GHD I in Chicago was a very close second. This appears to be 12:1 ratio. Big wet flakes. Hopefully not a snowblower clog job.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be all about surface temps of course with us being right on the edge. I'm optimistic we'll stay cold enough that there will be only a very brief time of rain/mix. I woke up this morning to sunshine which surprised me, but this helped the temps dropped a bit further overnight. I was also amazed at how quickly the low clouds filled in and now that's helping keep temps down. My weather station is at 33.8 right now and has been steady since 5 am. Hope we stay away from the upper 30s like the forecast was showing.

 

So there is a section of snow to our sw that models haven't picked up. Might be some hope.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be all about surface temps of course with us being right on the edge. I'm optimistic we'll stay cold enough that there will be only a very brief time of rain/mix. I woke up this morning to sunshine which surprised me, but this helped the temps dropped a bit further overnight. I was also amazed at how quickly the low clouds filled in and now that's helping keep temps down. My weather station is at 33.8 right now and has been steady since 5 am. Hope we stay away from the upper 30s like the forecast was showing.

What is your dew point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's going to be all about surface temps of course with us being right on the edge. I'm optimistic we'll stay cold enough that there will be only a very brief time of rain/mix. I woke up this morning to sunshine which surprised me, but this helped the temps dropped a bit further overnight. I was also amazed at how quickly the low clouds filled in and now that's helping keep temps down. My weather station is at 33.8 right now and has been steady since 5 am. Hope we stay away from the upper 30s like the forecast was showing.

I’m definitely more concerned about moisture than temps. Getting either ZR or rain right now, can’t really tell, I’m in a rush. Though windshield had a coating of ice when I left the house this morning.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sweet! WSW is expanded south to just one county north of me. OMA mentions increase in forecast wind speeds to 50 mph now. Also talked about maybe needing to expand warning to the metro area along I-80 with afternoon update as it's possible we could end up with 5-7". Lastly, considered upgrade to blizzard warning in northeast Nebraska....

 

This Afternoon Through Tonight

Overall, the forecast remains in very good shape and is generally
on track. However, we did make some minor tweaks. We increased
the wind speed gusts closer to 50 mph tonight based on latest
RAP/HRRR models. This is about 10 mph higher than previous grids.
Also tweaked snowfall just slightly higher in northeast NE,
opening the snow range to 7 to 12 inches. Although, with the
strong winds, it`s going to be a significant challenge getting an
accurate measurement.

As stated all along with the system, there remains strong
uncertainty on the amount of snow in the transition zone along
Interstate 80. This results in a wide range from 1 to 6 inches in
those counties along I80, which includes the Lincoln, Omaha, and
Council Bluffs metro areas. Certainly, from about 22z through 03z,
snowfall rates could range an inch or two per hour, and there
will likely be convective snow bursts in there too. We will look
closely at all guidance in the next hour, and we may have to
upgrade counties along I-80 to a winter storm warning for the
afternoon package. Nonetheless, the evening commute will become
increasingly hazardous. Latest runs of the RAP and HRRR suggest
snow amounts could reach 5 to 7 inches in the northern portions of
these counties, so it`s something we are monitoring closely for a
headline upgrade.

We also considered upgrading parts of the winter storm warning to
a blizzard warning for tonight, but after coordination with
neighboring NWS offices, we will hold off for now. Not confident
that the timing of the strongest winds coincides with the timing
of the heaviest snowfall to get three hours of visibility less
than 1/4 mile. We still mentioned near-blizzard wording in the
winter storm warning, and travel will continue to become
increasingly difficult if not impossible overnight in some areas
north of I80.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some kind of storm I just got a High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
118 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ021-022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054-
270330-
/O.UPG.KEAX.WI.Y.0010.191127T0300Z-191127T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KEAX.HW.W.0004.191127T0300Z-191127T1500Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Clinton-Caldwell-
Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton,
La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,
Lenexa, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,
Breckenridge, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake,
Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson,
Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,
Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill,
Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor
118 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and north
central, northwest and west central Missouri, including the Kansas
City Metro.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will have the potential to blow down
trees and power lines. Some power outages are expected. Travel
will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got a burst of heavy snow around noon today and coated the ground in white. I was in Columbus at the time and it was coming down pretty good; I then came home and above the valley it turned to grapuel. Now I'm in the dreaded dry slot patiently waiting for the trowal to swing through. I'm hoping I get at least 6" as I made a bet with our custodial guy at the school. We always bet a tall boy when it comes to snow and I set the over/under at 6! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like there are some surprises already down there in NE! Is this thing sagging south a but from what guidance had predicted? Have not really kept up on the Nebraska side of things.

I'm wondering if this thing has slowed down?? I seen snowfan posted that OAX might be expanding the warning area. I'm very interesting in seeing what happens when the afternoon disco's come out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holy smokes the tri-cities are getting smoked! I was looking at the interstate cams around Grand Island and visibility is poor. Roads go from wet to ice covered within miles. @CentralNeb you are gonna do real well!

I got a solid 4-5” as of now and it is snowing the hardest of the day. Went to the store and visibility in town a little over 1 block. Heavy returns moving north. Supposed to be getting 1-2” an hour this afternoon.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like there are some surprises already down there in NE! Is this thing sagging south a but from what guidance had predicted? Have not really kept up on the Nebraska side of things.

Things appear to be on track. The only thing that is a bit surprising is that it is already starting to snow here. Apparently there was a pretty stout dry layer that was supposed to take a while to saturate. It appears that may have already taken place. Positive development for here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things appear to be on track. The only thing that is a bit surprising is that it is already starting to snow here. Apparently there was a pretty stout dry layer that was supposed to take a while to saturate. It appears that may have already taken place. Positive development for here.

The good stuff has slowed a bit...  Dynamics looking slightly better here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OMA NWS staying with the winter weather advisory along I-80. Based on latest HRRR and RAP runs, I don't blame them. However the models haven't been doing too well here so far today. We'll see what happens this evening and overnight. Snow has stopped for the last couple of hours and just getting mist. Temp is 32.9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...