MIKEKC Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Enjoy the big snows everyone! Stay safe and be careful shoveling, looks like a wet snow. We’ll see who the big winner is in about 24 hours. Go snow! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Impressive radar returns out west. I’m liking where this is headed. The scene around here is going to be totally different this time tomorrow. My little guy woke up this morning and asked ‘Are we going to go sledding on Thanksgiving dad?’ You bet we are! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Historic event unfolding, two actually. The CA/OR border storm is a once in 40 or 50 yr deal per Medford, OR NWS AFD This storm may be historic in the Fort Collins and Loveland areaswhere 20 inches or more of snow is expected. That would put thestorm near the top 5 of all snow events there. These are the real-deal S Stream monster storms that have been MIA around the southern MW/OHV/GL's far too long. I sure hope they make a showing down here later in winter 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Impressive radar returns out west. I’m liking where this is headed. The scene around here is going to be totally different this time tomorrow. My little guy woke up this morning and asked ‘Are we going to go sledding on Thanksgiving dad?’ You bet we are! While we here in SCMI (KJXN to be specific) enjoyed several hours of 1/16 mi vis with last Jan's hybrid, it was of the small grain flake type that has become common it seems with NW flow systems. I miss the extreme forcing events your office is mentioning (and I remember from a by-gone era) when you get large flakes pouring down. It takes a dynamic system to generate those unique conditions and it sounds like you're in for a treat in that regard! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Snow has really picked up here in the last few minutes. Radar looks amazing 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 So there is a section of snow to our sw that models haven't picked up. Might be some hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 12z NAM showing nearly 6” of snow in a 3 hour period between 06z and 09z tomorrow morning. I’m setting an alarm. My wife is going to love me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 While we here in SCMI (KJXN to be specific) enjoyed several hours of 1/16 mi vis with last Jan's hybrid, it was of the small grain flake type that has become common it seems with NW flow systems. I miss the extreme forcing events your office is mentioning (and I remember from a by-gone era) when you get large flakes pouring down. It takes a dynamic system to generate those unique conditions and it sounds like you're in for a treat in that regard! Yeah pixie dust is always a concern. But like you said, this should be dynamic enough to avoid that. I think one of the best snowfalls I’ve ever seen was our April blizzard two years ago when we had thundersnow. GHD I in Chicago was a very close second. This appears to be 12:1 ratio. Big wet flakes. Hopefully not a snowblower clog job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 A co-worker of mine lives in Loveland, CO. She says they have 20" on the ground right now and still snowing hard. Crazy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 It's going to be all about surface temps of course with us being right on the edge. I'm optimistic we'll stay cold enough that there will be only a very brief time of rain/mix. I woke up this morning to sunshine which surprised me, but this helped the temps dropped a bit further overnight. I was also amazed at how quickly the low clouds filled in and now that's helping keep temps down. My weather station is at 33.8 right now and has been steady since 5 am. Hope we stay away from the upper 30s like the forecast was showing. So there is a section of snow to our sw that models haven't picked up. Might be some hope. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Point totals just increased an inch on both ends here. Minneapolis proper has point totals of 10-15. O_o 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 It's going to be all about surface temps of course with us being right on the edge. I'm optimistic we'll stay cold enough that there will be only a very brief time of rain/mix. I woke up this morning to sunshine which surprised me, but this helped the temps dropped a bit further overnight. I was also amazed at how quickly the low clouds filled in and now that's helping keep temps down. My weather station is at 33.8 right now and has been steady since 5 am. Hope we stay away from the upper 30s like the forecast was showing.What is your dew point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 It's going to be all about surface temps of course with us being right on the edge. I'm optimistic we'll stay cold enough that there will be only a very brief time of rain/mix. I woke up this morning to sunshine which surprised me, but this helped the temps dropped a bit further overnight. I was also amazed at how quickly the low clouds filled in and now that's helping keep temps down. My weather station is at 33.8 right now and has been steady since 5 am. Hope we stay away from the upper 30s like the forecast was showing.I’m definitely more concerned about moisture than temps. Getting either ZR or rain right now, can’t really tell, I’m in a rush. Though windshield had a coating of ice when I left the house this morning. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Snowing now, so for sure more worried about moisture for the rest of the day rather than p type. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Right now it's 34.3 temp/ 30.3 dewpointWhat is your dew point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Right now it's 34.3 temp/ 30.3 dewpointPlenty of room to wet bulb 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Looks like my snow is really going to be coming down this afternoon. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1199372745554792450?s=21 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Snowing with some sleet mixed in up in Northwest Omaha at my work. The temp dropped from 37 to 33 once the rain/snow mix started... could be something interesting to watch here after all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Snow and gropel here is papio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Hrrr an inferno here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Hrrr backing of on the rain. Interesting but as stated moisture appears to be an issue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Winter Storm Warning expanded south so may be an even closer miss 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 nice coating of snow already on the cars in the parking lot and on roofs. Small pixie flakes though... Temperature down to 32.9 so hopefully should stay snow throughout the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Sweet! WSW is expanded south to just one county north of me. OMA mentions increase in forecast wind speeds to 50 mph now. Also talked about maybe needing to expand warning to the metro area along I-80 with afternoon update as it's possible we could end up with 5-7". Lastly, considered upgrade to blizzard warning in northeast Nebraska.... This Afternoon Through TonightOverall, the forecast remains in very good shape and is generallyon track. However, we did make some minor tweaks. We increasedthe wind speed gusts closer to 50 mph tonight based on latestRAP/HRRR models. This is about 10 mph higher than previous grids.Also tweaked snowfall just slightly higher in northeast NE,opening the snow range to 7 to 12 inches. Although, with thestrong winds, it`s going to be a significant challenge getting anaccurate measurement.As stated all along with the system, there remains stronguncertainty on the amount of snow in the transition zone alongInterstate 80. This results in a wide range from 1 to 6 inches inthose counties along I80, which includes the Lincoln, Omaha, andCouncil Bluffs metro areas. Certainly, from about 22z through 03z,snowfall rates could range an inch or two per hour, and therewill likely be convective snow bursts in there too. We will lookclosely at all guidance in the next hour, and we may have toupgrade counties along I-80 to a winter storm warning for theafternoon package. Nonetheless, the evening commute will becomeincreasingly hazardous. Latest runs of the RAP and HRRR suggestsnow amounts could reach 5 to 7 inches in the northern portions ofthese counties, so it`s something we are monitoring closely for aheadline upgrade.We also considered upgrading parts of the winter storm warning toa blizzard warning for tonight, but after coordination withneighboring NWS offices, we will hold off for now. Not confidentthat the timing of the strongest winds coincides with the timingof the heaviest snowfall to get three hours of visibility lessthan 1/4 mile. We still mentioned near-blizzard wording in thewinter storm warning, and travel will continue to becomeincreasingly difficult if not impossible overnight in some areasnorth of I80. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Beautiful winter storm! I’m so jealous! OmahaSnowFan, see, I told you the other day that you were in the game...now you might win the game. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Can’t get over the last minute trends, still in a WWA for 2 to 6 inches of snow. Color me shocked LOL! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Hmmm oax talking about a good time in the metro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Some kind of storm I just got a High Wind WarningURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO118 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ021-022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054-270330-/O.UPG.KEAX.WI.Y.0010.191127T0300Z-191127T1500Z//O.NEW.KEAX.HW.W.0004.191127T0300Z-191127T1500Z/Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Clinton-Caldwell-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Bates-Henry-Including the cities of Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton,La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,Lenexa, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo,Breckenridge, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake,Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson,Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill,Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor118 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CSTWEDNESDAY...* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mphexpected.* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and northcentral, northwest and west central Missouri, including the KansasCity Metro.* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will have the potential to blow downtrees and power lines. Some power outages are expected. Travelwill be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...People should avoid being outside in forested areas and aroundtrees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels ofyour home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution ifyou must drive.&& 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Hmmm oax talking about a good time in the metro I didn’t see this coming, even seeing the possibility of thunder snow and convective snowfall bands between 4pm and 7pm in East Central Nebraska. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Got a burst of heavy snow around noon today and coated the ground in white. I was in Columbus at the time and it was coming down pretty good; I then came home and above the valley it turned to grapuel. Now I'm in the dreaded dry slot patiently waiting for the trowal to swing through. I'm hoping I get at least 6" as I made a bet with our custodial guy at the school. We always bet a tall boy when it comes to snow and I set the over/under at 6! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Holy smokes the tri-cities are getting smoked! I was looking at the interstate cams around Grand Island and visibility is poor. Roads go from wet to ice covered within miles. @CentralNeb you are gonna do real well! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Last minute trends look solid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Sounds like there are some surprises already down there in NE! Is this thing sagging south a but from what guidance had predicted? Have not really kept up on the Nebraska side of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Sounds like there are some surprises already down there in NE! Is this thing sagging south a but from what guidance had predicted? Have not really kept up on the Nebraska side of things.I'm wondering if this thing has slowed down?? I seen snowfan posted that OAX might be expanding the warning area. I'm very interesting in seeing what happens when the afternoon disco's come out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 OAX did update there snow predictions; Columbus is 20 miles to my north so I'll be darn close to double digits if that plays out! Finally snow is starting to fall again, temp at 32 and flakes are large! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Holy smokes the tri-cities are getting smoked! I was looking at the interstate cams around Grand Island and visibility is poor. Roads go from wet to ice covered within miles. @CentralNeb you are gonna do real well!I got a solid 4-5” as of now and it is snowing the hardest of the day. Went to the store and visibility in town a little over 1 block. Heavy returns moving north. Supposed to be getting 1-2” an hour this afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 It's been absolutely ripping in GI this last hour. Probably have close to 5 inches already. I think we'll over perform here. Those short range models were showing the heavier bands in the Tri Cities. We'll be good for 10+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Sounds like there are some surprises already down there in NE! Is this thing sagging south a but from what guidance had predicted? Have not really kept up on the Nebraska side of things.Things appear to be on track. The only thing that is a bit surprising is that it is already starting to snow here. Apparently there was a pretty stout dry layer that was supposed to take a while to saturate. It appears that may have already taken place. Positive development for here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 Things appear to be on track. The only thing that is a bit surprising is that it is already starting to snow here. Apparently there was a pretty stout dry layer that was supposed to take a while to saturate. It appears that may have already taken place. Positive development for here.The good stuff has slowed a bit... Dynamics looking slightly better here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 26, 2019 Report Share Posted November 26, 2019 OMA NWS staying with the winter weather advisory along I-80. Based on latest HRRR and RAP runs, I don't blame them. However the models haven't been doing too well here so far today. We'll see what happens this evening and overnight. Snow has stopped for the last couple of hours and just getting mist. Temp is 32.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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