11/26 - 11/28 Winter Storm

[Clinton]

ICON with a slower and much stronger storm.

[GDR]

Looks impressive but terrible low track for my area

[jaster220]

GRR already siding with the EURO.  RAIN for Michigan.

 

The next weather maker is low that will approach from the southwest

Tuesday. ECMWF ensembles suggest this will be another wind maker and

perhaps stronger than yesterday`s storm. The euro is a bit farther

west than the gfs and so places West MI in the warm sector and

pushes the snow over northern Lower. The gfs is farther south and

would dump some snow over the cwa. The Canadian model leans toward

the euro and so will we. Thus, we`re looking at mainly rain Tuesday.

 

    when don't they. Just after all the disco in here about NOT buying too deeply into any solution at this range. Yet, in typical fashion, they will latch onto the least wintry model solution and run with it. I don't really care since I will be in NMI by the 29th and would get to enjoy whatever it does up there, but I'd love to see my highly esteemed office have to eat crow once again for the pure satisfaction of it. 

[jaster220]

Looks impressive but terrible low track for my area

 

Yeah, it ends up very strong over NMI, but way north. Perhaps there will be another round of "blocking" adjustment in the next 2 days? SLP has ranged from W MN to N OH after all. Nice tight cone of uncertainty, lol

[bud2380]

GFS fairly weak, with marginal temps making for very poor snow ratios.  

 

 

[Tom]

12z Canadien...

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Minimal impact here with the first wave, it's going to rain with the 2nd piece, and then it's going to be cold beginning of December with brown ground. Sounds wonderful.

[Hawkeye]

UK keeps going north, is now way north of the other models.... snow band would be from South Dakota to Lake Superior.

 

Frankly, I wouldn't mind getting missed by this one.  I have a cold and my back is iffy.  Also, even if this tracks perfectly for us it probably wouldn't amount to much more than a few sloppy inches.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON gives Nebraska a nice hit.  

[GDR]

So we now have all models In different camps. This is awesome!!

[jaster220]

12Z ICON gives Nebraska a nice hit.  ICON.png

 

  That swath is now full-circle to where we were 2 days ago before the models yanked the rug out causing all the western sub peeps to pronounce "storm cancel".  Gotta love it!

 

This energy really "wants" to be a snowstorm, it's just having a very hard time finding cold enough air. Not sure if Tom's seeing any chance at improvement in that dept like we saw flashed yesterday? 

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean and ensembles.

[bud2380]

So the GFS ensembles do not support the deterministic solution at all.  

[Clinton]

So the GFS ensembles do not support the deterministic solution at all.  

Nope, we still have more model flopping to go.  Grab some popcorn and slam some beers it's gonna be fun to track.

[St Paul Storm]

Baby steppin’ on the Euro.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro looks like the 00z.

[GDR]

12z Euro looks like the 00z.

. I was about to post that

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

 

[Clinton]

Euro showing a rain/ snow mix for me on turkey day.  Colder trend in the long range.

[jaster220]

12z Euro...

 

 

 

10+ over Traverse - nice! 

[Stacsh]

GFS not nearly as cold in the long range this run.  

[Tom]

GFS not nearly as cold in the long range this run.  

Check the ensembles...we will all be in the Freezer, esp those with a snow cover...Winter is coming back with a vengeance...my call of mid-December extreme winter conditions may be a tad late and its coming earlier than previously thought. 

 

That's a bust I'll certainly take though..

[jaster220]

Check the ensembles...we will all be in the Freezer, esp those with a snow cover...Winter is coming back with a vengeance...my call of mid-December extreme winter conditions may be a tad late and its coming earlier than previously thought. 

 

That's a bust I'll certainly take though..

 

Yeah, when's the OP GFS not trying to warm-up in the extended?

[Stormhunter87]

Don't do that euro don't give me hope of three inches of snow.

[Madtown]

That Euro works for me....

[clintbeed1993]

For my own sanity I'm going to believe the GFS is out to lunch and we'll get a solid 2-4 inches as the EURO advertises. I'd take that at the end of November.

[Niko]

APX reminds us that the energy driving the storm's formation is still 1,000 miles away! Just gonna chill-ax and see what things do after 48 hrs

Good point amigo. Let Ma Nature sort this out itself. In the mean time, hit the gym, play a little basketball, punch the bag, go make ya self a healthy salad and call it a day. 

[CentralNebWeather]

For my own sanity I'm going to believe the GFS is out to lunch and we'll get a solid 2-4 inches as the EURO advertises. I'd take that at the end of November.

NWS Hastings mentions a stormy period next week in their afternoon disco today. Several chances of precipitation starting Monday night then various times after.

[Stacsh]

See you all in December the way this pattern is going.  Average and rainy in Michigan.  This storm will keep going NW each run.  

[jaster220]

See you all in December the way this pattern is going.  Average and rainy in Michigan.  This storm will keep going NW each run.  

 

Yep, looking like yesterday's suppressed strong storm was a "fluke" after all. Was kinda hoping it had begun to read the "GB", but whatever it read might have been junk data. Since the Euro basically led the pack from day 6 for the Vet's Day storm, I was hopeful maybe it was doing that again this time?

[St Paul Storm]

MPX changes their tune from this morning where they said no impacts all all for the cwa. Now they’re saying anything from a major winter storm to absolutely no precip. Still way too early to draw any conclusions at all. With that being said, god bless that 18z ICON. Now, back to drinking beer.

[Niko]

Yep, looking like yesterday's suppressed strong storm was a "fluke" after all. Was kinda hoping it had begun to read the "GB block", but whatever it read might have been junk data. Since the Euro basically led the pack from day 6 for the Vet's Day storm, I was hopeful maybe it was doing that again this time?

Ya know whats funny amigo, remember bout 2 or 3 years ago, not sure when (cant remember, maybe you can) where a model came out showing snowfall accumulations of 25"+ and then, 2 days later, all gone, zilch snowfall. This kinda had flashbacks.  

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like about 6 of the 20 GEFS ensembles support some type of storm. That’s not good. At all.

[OKwx2k4]

Not sure how the EPS mean looks like in between HR 120 & 144, but you can justify by these maps below the southern wave strengthens significantly as it tracks up towards the GL's. Arklatex Low???

 

 

 

Need deeper and colder;further SE but it's only November also.

[Stacsh]

Not enough cold air around the Great Lakes next 10 days. When does this pattern cycle back? Why do I get the feeling when we do get cold the southern stream suppression takes over?

[FarmerRick]

Hope it all misses Omaha, as I will be moving in the next few weeks. I want no snow til Christmas Eve.

[jaster220]

Not enough cold air around the Great Lakes next 10 days. When does this pattern cycle back? Why do I get the feeling when we do get cold the southern stream suppression takes over?

 

I'll be honest. When Tom first mentioned a November cold wave similar to 2014 I cringed inside. That one 5 yrs ago was such a slap with the Storm Watch GRR had me under being a bust, then what followed in December. At least this time I was treated to an historic storm (shoulda been my warning I didn't get in '14) and legit winter conditions for several days afterwards. Now we wait to see just how it goes for the lame December portion.

[Money]

Icon with a pretty big storm (990) ish over southern lake MI

[gabel23]

Nam coming in strong as usual....

[Niko]