Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For SLE this was the 15th coldest February-April period on record, but the 2nd coldest since 1982. For average max temps it was the 8th coldest and coldest average max temp in that period since 1975. Brrrrr.... Now payback time I suppose. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the "Things could always be worse category," SLE is at 0.57" of rain on the month now, if they receive no more rain the rest of the month they would still finish outside the top 10 driest. May 2018 had a meager 0.21", the driest May on record was 1992 with 0.05". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One final fun fact before I retire for the evening. Down here 6 of the top 20 warmest Mays have been since 2014...

[LowerGarfield]

In Texas this morning with a hotel that has no real curtains which seems crazy to me as someone in the NW. So if course I'm up early.

My wife said we had .48 of rain yesterday as of 7:30pm pacific time and was still raining. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One final fun fact before I retire for the evening. Down here 6 of the top 20 warmest Mays have been since 2014...

Cliff Mass was predicting one of the coldest Mays in history just a few days ago. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 50 this morning. 06z GFS looked a lot more dynamic for the next 7-10 days than previous GFS runs. More like the Euro. A relatively quick spike of some moderate heat then some more thunderstorm chances.

[MossMan]

Currently light drizzle and 46 degrees. 
.04” so far on the day, 1.46” for the month. 

[Skagit Weather]

Yesterday's 0.59" up here was only the second day I've had this year over half an inch. The only other day was 1.04" on February 20. Looks like after this morning the rain will mostly be done for the next 10 days or so.

[the_convergence_zone]

Ensembles don’t know what to do with this heat wave yet. The high end numbers are insane for May but the GFS is probably GFSing. 80s likely at KSEA. Duration also unknown. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Ensembles don’t know what to do with this heat wave yet. The high end numbers are insane for May but the GFS is probably GFSing. 80s likely at KSEA. Duration also unknown. 

Let's see now… GFS, check… control is an extreme outlier, check… mean is nowhere near the control, check… Euro does not agree, check… THROW IT OUT.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.09” overnight. Every bit counts!

[Ken in Wood Village]

It's interesting to see the flow. Normally this flow can produce thunderstorms. With the sun coming out, temperatures will go up, (not in the upper 70's) but it wouldn't need to be very warm to produce some heavy showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Even though the SPC shows thunderstorms further East of the Willamette Valley, I wouldn't discount a stray thunderstorm outside the watch area

[Omegaraptor]

Northern Canada is getting toasty! Very warm forecast for May at 60 degrees north latitude.

[Slushy Inch]

Odd little backwards moving shortwave causes thunderstorms during continued warmth. Wouldn’t really feel like living in western Washington at this point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z is demoralizing. Starting to mentally prepare myself for summer now... it's coming early this year. And it's pissed off.

We'll be racking up the NFL players soon.

[MossMan]

The Deer was staring at my Deere in the garage. 
.05” on the day. 47 degrees. 

[Phil]

13 hours ago, MossMan said:

49/46 on the day. Currently 48 and still raining! Sooo glad I mowed last evening. 
1.11” so far on the day, 1.21” for the month. 

Trolling me with those deadwood pics.

Come on brother it’s an easy fix! Don’t have to cut the entire tree but that shit is gonna fall on someone’s head, I assure you.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trolling me with those deadwood pics.

Come on brother it’s an easy fix! Don’t have to cut the entire tree but that shit is gonna fall on someone’s head, I assure you.

It’s a risk I’m willing to take to keep trolling you for years to come!!

Hard to tell by the pics but they are leaning towards the woods away from my dog fence so really the only danger would be to the thousands of slugs living in that wet area of the woods. 

[ShawniganLake]

Gem goes nuts with the ridge next weekend. 
 

 

[FroYoBro]

35 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

It's interesting to see the flow. Normally this flow can produce thunderstorms. With the sun coming out, temperatures will go up, (not in the upper 70's) but it wouldn't need to be very warm to produce some heavy showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Even though the SPC shows thunderstorms further East of the Willamette Valley, I wouldn't discount a stray thunderstorm outside the watch area

Yeah, I just noticed these showers on the radar as well. At the least, they may give us some rain this afternoon. 

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Odd little backwards moving shortwave causes thunderstorms during continued warmth. Wouldn’t really feel like living in western Washington at this point.

OT but man, a month from now that would be the ultimate severe pattern out here. MCS/derecho party. Massive missed opportunity.  

Since it’s a pattern associated with poleward transfer of -AAM (+dAAMt/+AAM deposition in tropics) it’s unlikely to repeat. +AAM moat in NH subtropics is here to stay after this +dAAMt event (+ENSO base state now emerging).

Which is good news for the icepu**ies on this forum, but just another screwjob for my region, in a year defined by screwjobs.

/end rant

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s a risk I’m willing to take to keep trolling you for years to come!!

Hard to tell by the pics but they are leaning towards the woods away from my dog fence so really the only danger would be to the thousands of slugs living in that wet area of the woods. 

And it’s not dead…It’s been sick since we bought the place 5yrs ago but it still leafs out each year! Looks like a tree uprooted right next to it and probably caused the root damage. And yeah it’s angled away from danger…Plus my dog is keeping an eye on it. Oh and this slug is trying to escape the impending heat dome by trying to get into the mechanical room under the house! 

Edited May 6, 2023 by MossMan

[Phil]

Basically what we’re seeing here is the establishment of the background El Niño/low pass state, via a high amplitude intraseasonal event. Fascinating stuff.

No looking back after this, El Niño standing wave should be established with high amplitude, canonical AAMz signature. Still will be intraseasonal/MJO activity, but within a +ENSO type low frequency state, for the first time since 2019.

This is top-tier. I’m sure the -dAAMt following AAM peak is underestimated by EPS weeklies, but base state is here to stay.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a terrible GFS run at all. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Basically what we’re seeing here is the establishment of the background El Niño/low pass state, via a high amplitude intraseasonal event. Fascinating stuff.

No looking back after this, El Niño standing wave should be established with high amplitude, canonical AAMz signature. Still will be intraseasonal/MJO activity, but within a +ENSO type low frequency state, for the first time since 2019.

This is top-tier. I’m sure the -dAAMt following AAM peak is underestimated by EPS weeklies, but base state is here to stay.

But will it snow at my house?

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run at all. 

It’s made a big jump toward the reasonable camp the last few runs Andrew.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gem goes nuts with the ridge next weekend. 
 

 

Looks like I will be uncovering this thing next week and seeing how many critters lived the life of 1994 Sea Ray luxury over the last 7 months! 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

OT but man, a month from now that would be the ultimate severe pattern out here. MCS/derecho party. Massive missed opportunity.  

Since it’s a pattern associated with poleward transfer of -AAM (+dAAMt/+AAM deposition in tropics) it’s unlikely to repeat. +AAM moat in NH subtropics is here to stay after this +dAAMt event (+ENSO base state now emerging).

Which is good news for the icepu**ies on this forum, but just another screwjob for my region, in a year defined by screwjobs.

/end rant

I spent most of the evening trying to explain the intricacies of this impending +dAAMt event to my family.  It was painful. 

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And it’s not dead…It’s been sick since we bought the place 5yrs ago but it still leafs out each year! Looks like a tree uprooted right next to it and probably caused the root damage. And yeah it’s angled away from danger…Plus my dog is keeping an eye on it. Oh and this slug is trying to escape the impending heat dome by trying to get into the mechanical room under the house! 

I don’t think the deadwood portion of that tree will be around for many more years, so I’m happy to accept that deal.

FWIW looks like the tree attempted to correct the lean higher up. When it breaks, it will likely happen at the inflection point.

[iFred]

4 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Cliff Mass was predicting one of the coldest Mays in history just a few days ago. 

I don’t think Cliff Mass has ever been wrong. Truly a very sane and stable god amongst men.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

I don’t think Cliff Mass has ever been wrong. Truly a very sane and stable god amongst men.

He's been pretty accurate for the first week of May.

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run at all. 

FWIW, analog pools keep the ridgy theme going until late in the month. Don’t see any reason to doubt it, but who knows.

End of May into 1st half of June looks like a pattern loaded with #blessings, though! Should be an explosion in the slug population at Mossman’s house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw this on Facebook supposedly from May 5, 2018 at the Wooden Shoe Tulip fields near Monitor, Oregon (boyhood home of Mark Nelsen.). I don’t remember this thunderstorm, but I’m not as into thunderstorms like many of you are. I know there was almost no rain that month, so must not have been a big outbreak. 

[FroYoBro]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this on Facebook supposedly from May 5, 2018 at the Wooden Shoe Tulip fields near Monitor, Oregon (boyhood home of Mark Nelsen.). I don’t remember this thunderstorm, but I’m not as into thunderstorms like many of you are. I know there was almost no rain that month, so must not have been a big outbreak. 

Wow. The ghost of Mark Nelsen's childhood took this picture? Stunning! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this on Facebook supposedly from May 5, 2018 at the Wooden Shoe Tulip fields near Monitor, Oregon (boyhood home of Mark Nelsen.). I don’t remember this thunderstorm, but I’m not as into thunderstorms like many of you are. I know there was almost no rain that month, so must not have been a big outbreak. 

Didn’t make it up this way…It was a great day to move into the then new place! 

[T-Town]

Up to 60 here with some sun breaks. Got the soaking I was hoping for. Hope that’s not it for spring here.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Interesting pattern at the end of the 12z Euro. Not a lot of convection at face value on this run but it definitely looks like a pattern with potential.

12z Euro tops Portland out in the upper 80s on Sunday as well, so a little warmer than last night’s run.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Interesting pattern at the end of the 12z Euro. Not a lot of convection at face value on this run but it definitely looks like a pattern with potential.

12z Euro tops Portland out in the upper 80s on Sunday as well, so a little warmer than last night’s run.

Close by the end.

[MossMan]

Yep…End of May and probably all of June will be cool and moist! It’s coming!! 

[Meatyorologist]

In the grand scheme of things, getting our newly annual disturbingly large heatwave out of the way this early in the year is probably ideal. There's still enough surface moisture left over from this cool Spring so that the hot weather won't have time to flash fry the hydrosphere. And at its surface, we still have a good month and a half of a somewhat reliable Pacific storm track to contend with, so substantial recovery of the hydrosphere is actually attainable.