Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Phil]

3 hours ago, The Cats Meow said:

It's coming.  Be patient.

And more troughing is coming next month! Enjoy your death ridge while it lasts.

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim says this is normal and was worse in the past. 

Truly was much worse in the past... just a fact.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro kind of sucked. Hopefully just a hiccup.

[Slushy Inch]

Day 10. Still toasty.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Day 10. Still toasty.

Cold in Mexico.

[MossMan]

.09” so far on the day, 1.56” for the month, 21.73” for the year. 
Currently cloudy and 47 degrees. 

[TacomaWx]

Awesome morning here in Yellowstone! Had a few fresh inches of snow once we went into the park a bit. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 hours ago, RentonHill said:

What’s best place to live in New Mexico weather wis

Eagle Nest, Red River, Chama, or Cloudcroft. IMO, of course.

[Ken in Wood Village]

You can see where Mt. Hood is...lol

[T-Town]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. This is huge. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RIP VIDA BLUE

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has been snowing for the last couple hours across the upper John Day valley. Not super high elevation there (3-4K) so probably precip rates causing the snow level to surface. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not bad. 

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not bad. 

Been a pretty good stretch MTD north of the Santiam and south of the Rogue-Umpqua divide but pretty disappointing in between. Glad to see we’ll make up for it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Been a pretty good stretch MTD north of the Santiam and south of the Rogue-Umpqua divide but pretty disappointing in between. Glad to see we’ll make up for it.

So far this month has been about average on temps and precip here. 55/41 with 1.08" of precip. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54F and clear. No rain yet this month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

29 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

54F and clear. No rain yet this month.

That’s surprising considering EUG has had close to .20”

[Cascadia_Wx]

Models have really been all over the place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG hit 37 this morning. We fell to 38 with a few more KLOUDS.

[MossMan]

Water level is still quite high at Lake Goodwin. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gauge outside shows 0.40" made no sense the 0.00" on the digital one but hopefully it starts working again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models have really been all over the place.

They have. Shifting warmer again unfortunately, triggering new FB Messages from IBR Chris and BG Brian.

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Truly was much worse in the past... just a fact.  

yeah when no one lived here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gauge outside shows 0.40" made no sense the 0.00" on the digital one but hopefully it starts working again.

One on the roof must be clogged.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RIP VIDA BLUE

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

yeah when no one lived here

I grew up here in the 90s. Summers were really nice, we actually looked forward to them.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One on the roof must be clogged.

Still

a lot of ensemble spread

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models have really been all over the place.

Only one of them will be the most correct each day.

[Cold Snap]

Weather.com is showing 89 next Sunday IMBY. 5 degrees warmer than when I went to bed last night. Not going to be surprised at all if it starts showing 90+ for that day.

[Cold Snap]

Just realized SEA has a shot at the earliest 90+ day on record after having the latest 80+ day on record. Kind of hoping it doesn’t hit 90 because I would love to go this warm season without breaking some sort of heat record. I guess a daily record will probably happen at some point but I’m talking like an all time record being broken.

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Just realized SEA has a shot at the earliest 90+ day on record after having the latest 80+ day on record. Kind of hoping it doesn’t hit 90 because I would love to go this warm season without breaking some sort of heat record. I guess a daily record will probably happen at some point but I’m talking like an all time record being broken.

I know what you mean. Just going one summer without smashing some sort of long standing all time heat record would be nice. Probably a tall order.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EUG hit 37 this morning. We fell to 38 with a few more KLOUDS.

Really pretty clouds over Salem today!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know what you mean. Just going one summer without smashing some sort of long standing all time heat record would be nice. Probably a tall order.

Seriously. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro sure has turned fugly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh no, @MossMan, coming your way. 

[T-Town]

Azalea in full bloom. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Such a mess of ULL action around us starting later this week. Would be nice if the models settled on something besides high heights hanging over us for an eternity. Seems like there is still a lot of room for things to trend a little more variable in the coming days.

At face value the Euro shows Portland with 5 consecutive 80+ days (two of those hit 90) which is top tier for May.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models have really been all over the place.

All I saw was yesterday’s GFS/GEFS breaking down the pattern too soon.

The fundamentals have remained largely unchanged IMO. Significant deposition of AAM in tropics/poleward transfer of -U in NH, W-Hem MJO and transition from -NAO to +NAO all fits together perfectly.

Given the amplitude of this subseasonal event (and because it is in constructive interference with the emerging base state in the tropics and all internal components) it will evolve more slowly. Warm pattern in W-Canada/PNW likely has 3+ weeks to run. I don’t expect a change until at least sometime around Memorial Day.

Upon its completion the system state will be much more El Niño like, and such high amplitude +dAAMt events will be unlikely going forward (can’t get much higher than this, no dynamical space for it).

[Deweydog]

Pretty fun pattern. Heat, potential for SE flow, NHL playoffs, cold July upcoming…