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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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Next cycle of WWBs already lined up for next week. Intervals have been perfect in both timing and amplitude w/ respect to evolution of the thermocline, to maximize room for low frequency coupling.

Still early, but damn, am very impressed with how this El Niño regime is attempting to assert itself early on. Especially since it is taking such a remarkably different route from all other 21st century events.

Like a time capsule from the 1950s-70s. Textbook evolution from that era, but essentially went extinct following the 1976 Pacific climate shift. Not even 1997/98 fit the pre-1976 EOF.

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EPS has not been volatile at all... very consistent with the warmth coming and not really showing much of a return to troughing.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1683460800-1683460800-1684756800-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Next cycle of WWBs already lined up for next week. Intervals have been perfect in both timing and amplitude w/ respect to evolution of the thermocline, to maximize room for low frequency coupling.

Still early, but damn, am very impressed with how this El Niño regime is attempting to assert itself early on. Especially since it is taking such a remarkably different route from all other 21st century events.

Like a time capsule from the 1950s-70s. Textbook evolution from that era, but essentially went extinct following the 1976 Pacific climate shift. Not even 1997/98 fit the pre-1976 EOF.

Hopefully it’ll be like a 1968-69 type progression thru next year.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Next cycle of WWBs already lined up for next week. Intervals have been perfect in both timing and amplitude w/ respect to evolution of the thermocline, to maximize room for low frequency coupling.

Still early, but damn, am very impressed with how this El Niño regime is attempting to assert itself early on. Especially since it is taking such a remarkably different route from all other 21st century events.

Like a time capsule from the 1950s-70s. Textbook evolution from that era, but essentially went extinct following the 1976 Pacific climate shift. Not even 1997/98 fit the pre-1976 EOF.

Exciting stuff, Fil! Maybe we are reverting to a more troughing-friendly warm season regime for the PNW? Maybe one where it isn't necessarily favored, but not actively resisted either? Where normal warm season weather can happen again? Just a thought, perhaps a waning hope...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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66F and clouding up.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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21 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Are you skiing? 

Yes. I ski year round, which explains my desire to avoid unrelenting heat domes. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Spent the day looking at property out in Duvall 

A4C93A59-8EE6-4632-B2C5-050EEF8E2164.jpeg

Trying to get out of the swamp? I’d say Duvall is one of the better areas to be for snow that’s still not too far from Seattle.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Hurricane Ridge Lodge burned to the ground today. Renovations didn’t go well I guess. I’m waiting for the clouds to clear to see if I can see the fire from my house. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Never let it be said that I fail to give credit for the rare OVER-PERFORMING rain event here.

Surprise showers this afternoon totaled 0.30". Forecast was for a 20% chance with the main event not arriving until early tomorrow morning. Already close to the QPF for the whole event.

Very grateful for this blessing, especially with what looks to be a hot and dry spell coming up.

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2 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Trying to get out of the swamp? I’d say Duvall is one of the better areas to be for snow that’s still not too far from Seattle.

Yea thinkin about it. This piece of land was around 400-500 ft also which isn’t bad.  
 

Does Duvall get dry slotted a lot in snowstorms or naw?

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14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea thinkin about it. This piece of land was around 400-500 ft also which isn’t bad.  
 

Does Duvall get dry slotted a lot in snowstorms or naw?

That’s a pretty good elevation to live because there are a lot of times where I at 410 feet get an inch or two more than down in the main part of town. The down sloping from east winds during off shore flow snow events can eat up some of the snow but it doesn’t seem to be as bad as other places near the foothills. I remember during Feb 2021 even though a lot of high res models and Meteorologists were calling for only about 2-4 inches out this way and I remember waking up to 8 inches of powdery snow that morning. I think I had a storm total of 10 inches because it went until about 3pm that day. I’d say the east wind can definitely sometimes eat away a few inches but I don’t think it’s nearly as bad as down near Enumclaw and Covington. I remember during the snow event at the end of last November the east wind skunked places in the South sound near the foothills but it actually helped the precip stay snow and I ended up with 7 inches from that storm. It really just depends on the setup but I’d say Duvall is one of the least affected areas near the foothills when it comes to east winds.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

That’s a pretty good elevation to live because there are a lot of times where I at 410 feet get an inch or two more than down in the main part of town. The down sloping from east winds during off shore flow snow events can eat up some of the snow but it doesn’t seem to be as bad as other places near the foothills. I remember during Feb 2021 even though a lot of high res models and Meteorologists were calling for only about 2-4 inches out this way and I remember waking up to 8 inches of powdery snow that morning. I think I had a storm total of 10 inches because it went until about 3pm that day. I’d say the east wind can definitely sometimes eat away a few inches but I don’t think it’s nearly as bad as down near Enumclaw and Covington. I remember during the snow event at the end of last November the east wind skunked places in the South sound near the foothills but it actually helped the precip stay snow and I ended up with 7 inches from that storm. It really just depends on the setup but I’d say Duvall is one of the least affected areas near the foothills when it comes to east winds.

That is good to know thanks man! Does Duvall get hit by the c-zone often or is more north? 

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17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That is good to know thanks man! Does Duvall get hit by the c-zone often or is more north? 

Duvall does get hit by the CZ quite often but when it’s in the form of snow it tends to be just too far to the north but then there’s times where it does form right over Duvall and then Duvall can get absolutely slammed by 1”+ per hour rates. Even had a 3” per hour snowfall rate in Jan 2020 that CZ was a beast!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That is good to know thanks man! Does Duvall get hit by the c-zone often or is more north? 

Move here…You will not be disappointed!! 

3C4FA725-E992-400F-95BB-25FE7DA81A81.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Move here…You will not be disappointed!! 

3C4FA725-E992-400F-95BB-25FE7DA81A81.jpeg

I definitely would since I work remote but my fiancée  works at Harborview so that would be a commute lol

Edited by SouthHillFrosty
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Had a nice afternoon at the Mariners game, it was mostly cloudy but caught a few sun breaks and the temperature was perfect. Then I got a bit of gardening in, everything took off while I was on the east coast last week including the weeds. Euphorbia and my lilac tree are in full bloom and a few of my rhododendrons will peak this week. Lupine is just starting and I have a couple California poppy blossoms which will become an orange carpet during the heat wave. 

Given the timing of the heatwave and the lack of a significant cooldown behind it, I’ll probably plant the summer vegetables this week although I might hold off on tomatoes until next week. Last year I planted on 5/28 and I probably could have waited even longer. 2021 was 5/15 and 2020 was 5/22. Soil temperatures will be plenty warm
 

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

GEM next Sunday shows Salem, Oregon making a run for hottest spot in the entirety of the Americas.

Well it’s happened before…

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hopefully it’ll be like a 1968-69 type progression thru next year.

I mean, technically 1972/73 is on the table, so…☃️. Though, so is 1957/58..and 1965/66.

One that isn’t on the table is 2015/16. Not even remotely the same type of El Niño.

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Exciting stuff, Fil! Maybe we are reverting to a more troughing-friendly warm season regime for the PNW? Maybe one where it isn't necessarily favored, but not actively resisted either? Where normal warm season weather can happen again? Just a thought, perhaps a waning hope...

One year doesn’t a trend make, but I firmly believe that F/M/A will flip significantly warmer during/following this El Niño, while a cooler shift occurs in J/A/S.

Not gonna say anything re: January. That one is a giant mystery to me. 😂 

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I mean, technically 1972/73 is on the table, so…☃️. Though, so is 1957/58..and 1965/66.

One that isn’t on the table is 2015/16. Not even remotely the same type of El Niño.

One year doesn’t a trend make, but I firmly believe that F/M/A will flip significantly warmer during/following this El Niño, while a cooler shift occurs in J/A/S.

Not gonna say anything re: January. That one is a giant mystery to me. 😂 

15-16 wasn’t stellar, but it was great compared to 14-15. Yuck 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

15-16 wasn’t stellar, but it was great compared to 14-15. Yuck 

Well safe to say both 2015/16 and 2014/15 are off the table as analogs. At least IMO.

New NMME A/S/O projection released shows the difference in the SSTA forecast over the NPAC and NATL in 2023 vs same A/S/O forecast from 2015.

Verbatim this event is more east based, concurrent with the stout -NPMM/-PDO. While it’s likely the PDO/NPMM SSTA signature will attenuate/rise in association with El Niño circulation, it will not look like 2015 and may stay negative throughout the event. And the screaming +AMO also fits with the more east based structure of the niño early on.

So east based+cold phase niños are the ones that should be filling your analog pools. Which (unfortunately for me) precludes years like 2009/10, 2015/16, and probably 2002/03. All of those are off the table as cold season analogs.

To put it frankly, raging EPAC Niños are usually not friendly to anyone in the lower-48, except for Lake Tahoe and the rest of the SW US. Expect another monster winter down there in 2023/24.

IMG_3371.pngIMG_3373.png

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Global SSTA anomaly w/ respect to 1981-2010 baseline, and SSTA relative to the global anomaly, respectively.

This thing is totally EPAC centered. So much so that the niño-modoki index is actually *negative* right now.

This just isn’t supposed to happen anymore. Haha.

IMG_3376.pngIMG_3377.png

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7 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Had a nice afternoon at the Mariners game, it was mostly cloudy but caught a few sun breaks and the temperature was perfect. Then I got a bit of gardening in, everything took off while I was on the east coast last week including the weeds. Euphorbia and my lilac tree are in full bloom and a few of my rhododendrons will peak this week. Lupine is just starting and I have a couple California poppy blossoms which will become an orange carpet during the heat wave. 

Given the timing of the heatwave and the lack of a significant cooldown behind it, I’ll probably plant the summer vegetables this week although I might hold off on tomatoes until next week. Last year I planted on 5/28 and I probably could have waited even longer. 2021 was 5/15 and 2020 was 5/22. Soil temperatures will be plenty warm
 

 

We planted the full garden on April 24th last year and April 29th this year and we are at least 500 feet higher than your area.

Last year we had a very chilly May of course and the garden still ended up doing great.   Everything slowly came up during May and was then poised to explode with the warm, humid rain in early June.   The tomatoes and cucumbers were definitely not happy in May but they hung in there.    I suspect we will be quite a bit farther ahead by the first of June this year.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We planted the full garden on April 24th last year and April 29th this year and we are at least 500 feet higher than your area.

Last year we had a very chilly May of course and the garden still ended up doing great.   Everything slowly came up during May and was then poised to explode with the warm, humid rain in early June.   The tomatoes and cucumbers were definitely not happy in May but they hung in there.    I suspect we will be quite a bit farther ahead by the first of June this year.

Wow that’s early! I move my summer veggies to gallon pots at the end of April and keep them in a cold frame until I feel they are ready to go. In 2021 I harvested a zucchini in May, I doubt this year will match that unless there is a second heat wave around Memorial Day.

Tomatoes are always a battle in this climate, if you have tricks for the big ones in particular I’d love to hear it. I feel like they hate the spring cold more than anything else. 

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