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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Waiting to see the end of the warm anomalies. Probably 70s and 80s, no more 90s.image.thumb.png.2a0cf4dfc779f5fef1276c495f421b7b.png

You’ll be waiting awhile.

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Interestingly, the most stable low pass signal in the extended EPS’s hovmoller of VP200 anomalies is in the IO/Africa/Atlantic sector, not the Pacific sector.

This is a +IOD/+AMO quasi-standing wave signature, which is associated w/ the deposition of AAM and of course the east-based El Niño signature (at this time of year).

Yet analogs are basically nonexistent in the satellite era. :lol:

IMG_3381.png

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20 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The hell is angular momentum?

Simple/non-physicsy explanation: Earth and its atmosphere are both rotating (obviously). But sometimes, due to how the two interact, that momentum/rotary inertia may be exchanged between them. In fact it’s constantly being exchanged. But the overall angular momentum of the system (earth + atmosphere) is constant (conserved).

+AAM (positive *atmospheric* angular momentum) describes a state where angular momentum has been transferred from the earth to the atmosphere (hence earth rotates a little bit slower, atmosphere rotates a little bit faster). Vice versa for the -AAM state.

Depending on when these exchanges occur, where they occur (mountain torque is the reason, and there are many mountain ranges that can contribute), the rate at which it occurs, and its amplitude, the global circulation/wave dynamics can/will be affected (in a state dependent manner).

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31 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Let the snowpack melt.

I remember after the June 2021 heatwave I had never seen Mount Rainier so bare. Hope I never have to see it that bare again though it’s inevitable in a warming climate.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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In the winter (and most of the time, generally) it’s (typically) the effect of Himalayan/East Asian mountain torque (EAMT) that is most important in the PNW region, and North America/NH, more broadly.

In fact, the majority of blocky, arctic-air delivering patterns in the PNW originate from dynamics in East-Asia/Eurasia, whether directly or indirectly. That’s always where I look first.

Though of course, everything is connected in the system, so the amalgamation of components (the MJO/in-situ ENSO/low frequency states/RWB modes, various effects on+from the stratosphere in both the tropics and pole(s), and MT/AAM deposition/removal and meridional transfer thru eddys/z-cells + tendency + timing, etc) all work together in a slew of of intricate, state-dependent ways, on wildly varying timescales. It’s a giant mess that even our best computer models struggle to capture on timescales beyond a week, and sometimes even beyond a few days.

And that will continue to be the case until we figure out a way to minimize the scale of parameterization of small scale physics. The problem is computing power more so than our knowledge of the atmosphere (though we are lacking there as well, in many areas).

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12Z EPS... warmth stays pretty well entrenched.  You can also see hints of that ULL moving westward early next week.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1683633600-1683633600-1684929600-10 (2).gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1683633600-1683633600-1684929600-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... warmth stays pretty well entrenched.  You can also see hints of that ULL moving westward early next week.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1683633600-1683633600-1684929600-10 (2).gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1683633600-1683633600-1684929600-10.gif

That closed low is weird. I'm not sure I buy it happening. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Phil is going to get a heat wave too.

Not this month! 😃 In fact I’m confident it won’t blowtorch here for at least the next 5 weeks. Less certain mid-June onwards, but that’s way out there.

Developing El Niño summers are usually (relatively) tolerable here, though recent years haven’t exactly followed that script. Still, I don’t think it’ll be too bad this year. If all goes perfectly, maybe the coolest summer since 2009? Not probable, but possible.

It’s those summers *following* moderate/strong El Niños that are the real killers, especially around solar maximum. I have a strong feeling 2024 is going to be the “bad one” this decade (out this way). I just know it, can feel it in my gut.

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So I'm late in posting this but on Saturday my sister got quietly married on a farm about an hour south of Dallas and they had a nice canopy bought by the mother of the groom. She was going to give it to his sister for future parties on their rural acreage. But then a strong cell went through Ellis county, TX later that night and here's what it looked like the next morning. It was totally destroyed.

The ground to cloud lightning that night was incredible and right after we made it to our hotel we had very heavy rain and wind for quite some time. Like nothing we have even in Eastern WA.

IMG_20230509_135545.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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On 5/8/2023 at 7:16 AM, TT-SEA said:

One travel note from the weekend... the hotels in Pullman and Moscow were all booked months in advance for graduation weekend so we ended up down in Lewiston which is another 30 minutes past Pullman.   We had never been to Lewiston and did not expect that incredibly steep grade going down from the Palouse to the river.   That is like a mountain pass with runaway truck ramps and a 7% grade that seems to go on forever.   The view from the top overlooking the river and Lewiston is amazing.    The drive south of Pullman is just farmland and relatively flat with rolling hills and the last thing you expect is a mountain pass type grade all of a sudden.   

Lewiston Hill is a bit scary at first but on the second or third drive it's not too bad. Now, White Bird Hill south of Grangeville is a bit more intense.

Lewiston Hill is usually pretty well plowed in the winter. Which hotel did you stay this past weekend? I have stayed at the comfort inn in Lewiston when I moved to the region from W. WA and again before moving to my current location.

My wife and I had a date night kid free evening at the brand new Best Western in Clarkston a few months ago. That hotel is great but too close for us to really enjoy often.

Our favorite hotel in Moscow is the BW plus across from UI. Warm pool, fantastic breakfast, and perfect location. But of course it was full last weekend.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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5 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

I remember when we used to just call them "high pressure systems."

"Heat Dome" is one of those sciency-sounding terms that seem to have developed a kind of weird emotive resonance with the non-sciency pop culture crowd. Seems like it shows up in almost every weather and climate change story. "Polar Vortex" and "Atmospheric River" are a couple of others.

I've seen nature shows on TV that give the term "Atmospheric River" a sort of mystical woo-woo quasi-religious significance. I remember when we just called them "Pacific storms," but that was before we knew much about them, and much of the modern technical understanding hadn't been developed yet.

I blame TWC when they started naming Winter Storms. 

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7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Lewiston Hill is a bit scary at first but on the second or third drive it's not too bad. Now, White Bird Hill south of Grangeville is a bit more intense.

Lewiston Hill is usually pretty well plowed in the winter. Which hotel did you stay this past weekend? I have stayed at the comfort inn in Lewiston when I moved to the region from W. WA and yo my current location.

My wife and I had a date night kid free evening at the brand new Best Western in Clarkston a few months ago. That hotel is great but too close for us to really enjoy often.

Our favorite hotel in Moscow is the BW plus across from UI. Warm pool, fantastic breakfast, and perfect location. But of course it was full last weekend.

We actually stayed at Clearwater River Resort.  It was fine and relatively cheap.   But when we got there on Friday night they had Larry the Cable Guy performing and there was literally no parking anywhere.  

One other note... they have a paper mill on the river there that reminded me of the old Tacoma smell.   It was bad!  😀

Edited by TT-SEA
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We actually stayed at Clearwater River Resort.  It was fine and relatively cheap.   But when we got there on Friday night they had Larry the Cable Guy performing and there was literally no parking anywhere.  

One other note... they have a processing plant on the river there that reminded me of the old Tacoma smell.   😀

It's the paper mill.

How was the buffet? I've never actually been in. The gas at that location on the reservation is the cheapest in the area but I usually don't go out that far.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It's the paper mill.

How was the buffet? I've never actually been in. The gas at that location on the reservation is the cheapest in the area but I usually don't go out that far.

I looked up what it was and updated my post.

We ate at the restaurant on Sunday morning but that wasn't a buffet.  We were in Pullman most of the weekend and basically just slept at the hotel.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We actually stayed at Clearwater River Resort.  It was fine and relatively cheap.   But when we got there on Friday night they had Larry the Cable Guy performing and there was literally no parking anywhere.  

One other note... they have a paper mill on the river there that reminded me of the old Tacoma smell.   It was bad!  😀

See?  Reminded you of the OLD Tacoma smell. Modern Tacoma smells like a fresh mountain breeze wafting gently from a forest of tall pines. 

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10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

18z GFS is delaying the low. 

Not just delayed it, but has abandoned it. I'm not shocked at all, it was a weird setup. It is going to be TOASTY.

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Can’t trust this run for anything.

But we trust the 12z? That low wasn't in the 0z or 6z. Euro will be an interesting watch tonight

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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