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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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46 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

But we trust the 12z? That low wasn't in the 0z or 6z. Euro will be an interesting watch tonight

The ECMWF, EPS, and the control run all showed it.    That carries more weight than the 18Z GFS.    The 00Z run will probably bring it back.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Beautiful afternoon in Lebanon. 

3DEDCA07-7978-4A3E-831B-32D86D226CFA.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Thinking soil moisture will keep things capped around 95 for us. Could see a 97 or 98 evolving from this, I guess.

As I'm sure you know, 1939 is the benchmark for early season 95+ heatwaves in your area, hitting 96 on 5/13 at PDX. 

Next earliest temp over 95 is the 100 hit with the late May 1983 heatwave.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

"for profit' weather has always been the problem

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

And yet Andrew thinks the ECMWF/EPS are complete garbage and never looks at those runs.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But only the ones that affect the East Coast. Because no place else matters.

Lol this entire winter was nothing but California named storms. Over and over and over again. 😂 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet Andrew thinks the ECMWF/EPS are complete garbage and never looks at those runs.  😀

Andrew fetishizes the monthly CFS. 😆 ’Nuff said.

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15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s not going to get that warm. The streets are still too cool because they haven’t fully warmed up from winter yet.

The sun will definitely not be sticking to the roads according to Cliff…Except for maybe the side streets. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS and control run only go through hour 144 but both clearly show westward moving disturbance.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-1683655200-1683979200-1684173600-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-z500_anom-1683655200-1683979200-1684173600-10.gif

Good. Should moderate surface temps some and provide potential boom boom fuel. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The sun will definitely not be sticking to the roads according to Cliff…Except for maybe the side streets. 

I wonder how many inches of sun accumulation we will get!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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6 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I blame TWC when they started naming Winter Storms. 

LOL my brain autocorrected, and I read TWC as TWL and wondered, since when did @TigerWoodsLibido start naming winter storms and how would that trigger the media to start giving overly dramatic names to weather phenomena?

 

🤦‍♂️

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Might have to think about the hottest day with recorded precipitation. Record is 96F in August 2014. It's a long shot, but the odds are there.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

That was thunderstorms right?

Yeah. Some bright ones at that!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Might have to think about the hottest day with recorded precipitation. Record is 96F in August 2014. It's a long shot, but the odds are there.

I think we had some very light drizzle here last year while it was 100+ degrees during the July heatwave

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Gawddamn. Gonna be hard to function in that weather after such a temperate beginning to Spring. I'm not adjusted at all... 60F+ still feels warm to me

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Might have to think about the hottest day with recorded precipitation. Record is 96F in August 2014. It's a long shot, but the odds are there.

That was an interesting event and prompted a severe thunderstorm watch over SW WA with it. First and only one that I'm aware of on the westside in midsummer.

Portland's record is from 7/17/1941. Hit 100 and then there was a massive thunderstorm complex that night. 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

That was an interesting event and prompted a severe thunderstorm watch over SW WA with it. First and only one that I'm aware of on the westside in midsummer.

Portland's record is from 7/17/1941. Hit 100 and then there was a massive thunderstorm complex that night. 

That's the crown jewel. Hard to come by here... Very east coast like.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I wouldn’t mind if monsoon moisture reaching us becomes more common.

I haven't noticed much of a trend in recent years. There have been ups and downs... I'd argue the last three years have been unusually lacking outside of May 2020.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I haven't noticed much of a trend in recent years. There have been ups and downs... I'd argue the last three years have been unusually lacking outside of May 2020.

You would think that with global warming it might eventually become more common.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I haven't noticed much of a trend in recent years. There have been ups and downs... I'd argue the last three years have been unusually lacking outside of May 2020.

This month has probably been the best for thunderstorms here since 2020. Not really saying much but we did see some decent lightning last week and I heard a good amount of thunder yesterday

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

You would think that with global warming it might eventually become more common.

Maybe, if the average humidity of the midlatitudes increases. But actual water saturation of the air may change very little if both the water content and the temperature rise in tandem. Since convection is largely a function of latent heat, any adjustments to how quickly rising parcels reach saturation will have implications on instability... Simply adding heat would do little since the humidity would drop as a consequence.

Alternatively, AGW has seemed to have made previously anomalous ridging a more permanent fixture of our warming climate. This ridging promotes southerly flow and the injection of subtropical moisture into the midlevels. If there's an increase in thunderstorms, I'll bet it's related to pattern tendencies more than altered thermodynamics.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I haven't noticed much of a trend in recent years. There have been ups and downs... I'd argue the last three years have been unusually lacking outside of May 2020.

Right, and northern CA is much closer to the monsoonal tap and hasn't seen a noticeable difference either with the warmer summers, and it would stand to reason that they would probably see a more pronounced long term impact down there. The mechanisms for good moisture advection from the south in the midsummer require a little more 500mb volatility than we've seen recently as opposed to the sprawling/stagnant upper level ridges.

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