Jump to content

Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Might have to think about the hottest day with recorded precipitation. Record is 96F in August 2014. It's a long shot, but the odds are there.

I just thought of 7/30 last year. PDX and HIO both got to 102 and recorded no rain but I actually saw a brief rainshower in Tigard that day at like 95F outdoor temp. Definitely some of the more un-PNWlike weather I've seen here.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I just thought of 7/30 last year. PDX and HIO both got to 102 and recorded no rain but I actually saw a brief rainshower in Tigard that day at like 95F outdoor temp. Definitely some of the more un-PNWlike weather I've seen here.

8/16/2020 was pretty weird too. Got up to 100F, then midlevel shenanigans brought cloudy weather right as we reached peak heating. Felt so weird to be uncomfortably hot with no sun.

What really made things strange was when the thunderstorms drifted through. The rain they gave was warm to the touch, and the drops were enormous. Evaporative cooling plummeted temps to an icy 84F by sundown, but since all the work went into evaporation, the humidity at the ground skyrocketed, and we had a really odd 84/70 spread at night... It felt genuinely tropical. Looking back on the environmental profile for that evening; if we had somehow managed to break that monster cap, surface parcels would have had upwards of 2-3000j/kg of CAPE to contend with, alongside excellent shear.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All of the models now show a convective outbreak on Monday.   And the ULL shows up well even on the EPS that day.  Based on the trajectory coming from the SE... there is no marine push being shown after the convection.    We just stay in a warm air mass afterwards which is a little unusual for the west side. 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-4195200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-4195200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-4152000.png

  • Like 5
  • scream 1
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All of the models now show a convective outbreak on Monday.   And the ULL shows up well even on the EPS that day.  Based on the trajectory coming from the SE... there is no marine push being shown after the convection.    We just stay in a warm air mass afterwards which is a little unusual for the west side. 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-4195200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-4195200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-4152000.png

Yeah, no real change in airmass after Monday. Maybe a slight abation, but otherwise still well into the 80s and well above 'normal' (or what it used to be this time of year.)

Hopefully we manage to at least get some notable convection out of this stretch. We're about due.

  • Like 5

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SLE with an -0.6 departure so far this month. Today we start erasing all that beautiful progress.

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/30/2023 at 12:55 PM, TT-SEA said:

You can see the MJO in action on the EPS... big trough over the eastern half of the country to start then next round moves down along the west coast and the next round after that is back around the Bering Sea.    Watch for the next warm spell somewhere between May 10-20.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1682856000-1682856000-1684152000-10.gif

This post was from 11 days ago now... ended up right on target.  Its May 10th and the warm spell is beginning.    I can't really take the credit though it was not guessing on my part.   The MJO and EPS have been excellent guides this spring with the timing of both the cold and warm periods.

  • Excited 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Downvote 5
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This post was from 11 days ago now... ended up right on target.  Its May 10th and the warm spell is beginning.    I can't really take the credit though it was not guessing on my part.   The MJO and EPS have been excellent guides this spring with the timing of both the cold and warm periods.

Wow, you were right about something once. Obviously we were not going to stay in the icebox forever. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, you were right about something once. Obviously we were not going to stay in the icebox forever. 

I also saw the late April warm spell and the early May cold spell well ahead of time... all based on the MJO and EPS of course.   Its there for anyone to see.   And its more than just not staying in the icebox.   Its a significant warm spell and the timing was right on target as well.  

  • Downvote 1
  • Facepalm 1
  • Spam 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I also saw the late April warm spell and the early May cold spell well ahead of time... all based on the MJO and EPS of course.   Its there for anyone to see.   And its more than just not staying in the icebox.   Its a significant warm spell and the timing was right on target as well.  

I think we all know what it means when you start posting every run of the EPS.

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw the 06z GEFS only peaked at 17.9C at SLE in terms of 850mb temps, definitely a warm stretch coming up, but that doesn't seem super impressive. Maybe a couple days around 90ish if that verifies. I guess the real crazy anomalies are focused further north. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we all know what it means when you start posting every run of the EPS.

I definitely post more about things I like... which everyone does.  Not really a big revelation there.  I have noticed a significant decrease in posting from the bromance boys high-fiving and patting each other on the back about ensemble charts.   But that will be back soon enough.   We all know what it means when that is happening.   

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I definitely post more about things I like... which everyone does.  Not really a big revelation there.  I have noticed a significant decrease in posting from the bromance boys high-fiving and patting each other on the back about ensemble charts.   But that will be back soon enough.   We all know what it means when that is happening.   

Typically forum interest wanes during the warm season. With the developing super Nino, that may carry over this year, unless the 72-73 analog comes to fruition. I'm good either way, a 57-58 redux at least gets the dud monkey off our backs, though I'm not sure we are as "overdue" as everyone thinks we are. A matter of perspective I suppose.

  • Like 4
  • lol 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Typically forum interest wanes during the warm season. With the developing super Nino, that may carry over this year, unless the 72-73 analog comes to fruition. I'm good either way, a 57-58 redux at least gets the dud monkey off our backs, though I'm not sure we are as "overdue" as everyone thinks we are. A matter of perspective I suppose.

The regulars keep posting.   If we have an extended period of cold/wet troughing in June then there will be very frequent and excited posting from the usual suspects.   

I have not really posted too much about the details of this warm spell.   My posting activity level has stayed fairly consistent.   This is just the next thing happening.   Tables will turn again soon enough. 

  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z GFS yesterday was definitely an outlier abandoning the westward moving ULL... as expected.  12Z run clearly shows it and shows convection firing on Monday.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4162800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-4195200 (1).png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw the 06z GEFS only peaked at 17.9C at SLE in terms of 850mb temps, definitely a warm stretch coming up, but that doesn't seem super impressive. Maybe a couple days around 90ish if that verifies. I guess the real crazy anomalies are focused further north. 

12z continues the trend of reduced 850s and the ridge center slightly further east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This post was from 11 days ago now... ended up right on target.  Its May 10th and the warm spell is beginning.    I can't really take the credit though it was not guessing on my part.   The MJO and EPS have been excellent guides this spring with the timing of both the cold and warm periods.

 

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I also saw the late April warm spell and the early May cold spell well ahead of time... all based on the MJO and EPS of course.   Its there for anyone to see.   And its more than just not staying in the icebox.   Its a significant warm spell and the timing was right on target as well.  

Lowkey patting yourself on the back. Lmao 🤣 

  • Like 3
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS was definitely an outlier abandoning the westward moving ULL.   12Z run clearly shows it and shows convection firing on Monday.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4162800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-4195200 (1).png

I'm still not sold, but cautiously optimistic. A warm/humid thunderstorm at my house would be cool.  

  • Like 6

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

Lowkey patting yourself on the back. Lmao 🤣 

Yep.   And I also give credit to others when credit is due.  

  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

High temps are much more impressive for the Puget Sound region on the 12z GFS than in W. Oregon. 

Looking at pivotal, these might not be the highs, but they are the highest temps I see for each day Saturday-Tuesday.

PDX: 88, 85, 88, 82

SEA: 78, 94, 92, 83

SLE: 84. 84. 85. 82

EUG: 80, 90, 85 85 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEM is way hotter, mid-90s in the WV on Monday. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm still not sold, but cautiously optimistic. A warm/humid thunderstorm at my house would be cool.  

Get a cold beer and a seat with a view. Few things on Earth that are more pleasurable than that experience.

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, iFred said:

Get a cold beer and a seat with a view. Few things on Earth that are more pleasurable than that experience.

As a guy that grew up in the Southeast, I agree. 

  • Like 5

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM shows the ULL moving in faster... by Sunday afternoon down in Oregon.

GEM throws the low out into the water and then sends it back into the western WA coast. Kinda dig that solution. 

  • Like 1

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Phil said:

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

I get that, i'm talking about the companies like TWC, AccuWeather and the like.  I'm all for the models per-se 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Forest fire situation is pretty bad in Alberta. Over 1 million acres burned already and thousands of people evacuated.  Looks like this upcoming ridge will be centered over some of the driest areas. 

Were these climate fires caused by lightning or humans?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Phil said:

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

The ECMWF is a for-profit organization?

From their "about us" web page:

Quote

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 35 states.

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are

Plus it has a .int domain, like nato.int, itu.int, eu.int, icc-cpi.int, etc. and the IANA is pretty strict about handing out .int domains to only genuine, international, treaty-based organizations.

Perhaps you meant to say "independent organization not affiliated with any one national government?"

  • Like 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another decent long range GFS. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We gonna have to wait a while, but nice weather will return in time. 

sfct-imp.us_nw.png

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...