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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

If it was evapotransportation Sunday wouldn’t have like zero CAPE.

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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

Cliff would have let me enjoy my thunderstorm delusion.

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

9FAE3A61-EE46-466D-8F8D-57E7C6CB524F.jpeg

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

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Pretty neat observations on the 00z GFS for Portland.

11 AM to 8 PM Monday. PDX goes from 83 to 88, then rapid cooling at 5 PM down to 64. This looks like a big outflow signal in Clackamas County on the surface temp map from a complex of storms. Then it warms a bit around 8 PM. 3hr QPF map verifies big storms in Clackamas County.

floop-gfs-2023051100.sfct-imp.us_nw.gif

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

Yeah it’s for real lmao. The excessive heat watch is for temps in the mid 80s to low 90s. 😂

654DBFB2-D4CB-4906-99EF-1EFE3604C1E6.jpeg

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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The high end of the heat has definitely been toned down, and thunderstorm chances are looking better for early next week. That said, the duration of sustained well above average warmth looks as impressive as ever. Good chance PDX breaks their record for consecutive days over 80 in May.

 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The high end of the heat has definitely been toned down, and thunderstorm chances are looking better for early next week. That said, the duration of sustained well above average warmth looks as impressive as ever. Good chance PDX breaks their record for consecutive days over 80 in May.

 

Yeah I don't know if PDX will hit 90 more than one day now. We may also see a notable increase in T-Storm chances by Sunday night or Monday.

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4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah I don't know if PDX will hit 90 more than one day now. We may also see a notable increase in T-Storm chances by Sunday night or Monday.

The one thing everyone is missing is not just the temperatures but the dewpoint and humidity. The air mass will be monsoonal moisture. Even though the temperatures could be lower, it's still going to feel warmer because of the humidity and dewpoint. I'm going to post a link to Michael Schneider from Northwest Weather Watch. I like watching his posts. The available CAPE looks impressive for thunderstorms early next week. If things develop just right, we could see a wide spread outbreak of thunderstorms. It looks impressive now but it still could all fall apart in the next few days. We'll see 🤗⛈️

 

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7 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

If it was evapotransportation Sunday wouldn’t have like zero CAPE.

There’s a thermal trough on Sunday so the easterlies will be cranking. On Monday the gradients weaken so moisture can build up at the surface and crank up the sfc dew point but it’s not going to saturate a 2+ km deep mixed layer This is why there are like 5 different formulas for CAPE depending on the type or convection. SBCAPE is for surface convection which applies to postfrontal showers in onshore flow. If you want to use SBCAPE, use the numbers right at the cascade crest. That is the correct CAPE. 

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10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dude. Streetlights in snowstorms are like crack. I never considered flashlights! I have something new to try... ;)

Honestly speaking, the best drug for a snowstorm is a warm cup of pour-over coffee, and an early morning walk around dawn in complete solitude. One of the more calming and gratifying experiences once can find in the grey of winter.

I’ve never lived anywhere with streetlights. Flashlights in the snow is all I’ve ever known.  I’m sure My wife thinks I’m crazy

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

To be fair, y’all have A/C. Most of us don’t.

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

To be fair, y’all have A/C. Most of us don’t.

What's wild is when I was growing up (NOT THAT LONG AGO.), you didn't even need AC. We lived in an old farm house, and it got pretty stuffy a few times every summer, but nothing too bad outside that heatwave in 1994 which I remember pretty well... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve never lived anywhere with streetlights. Flashlights in the snow is all I’ve ever known.  I’m sure My wife thinks I’m crazy

Yard lights on the house are better than streetlights or a flashlight.   We have a couple flood lights on the back of the house pointing over the backyard and when looking out the window from inside the house you are behind the light so it's very effective at illuminating falling snow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve never lived anywhere with streetlights. Flashlights in the snow is all I’ve ever known.  I’m sure My wife thinks I’m crazy

Flashlight works great, especially when the power is out! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yard lights on the house are better than streetlights or a flashlight.   We have a couple flood lights on the back of the house pointing over the backyard and when looking out the window from inside the house you are behind the light so it's very effective at illuminating falling snow.

My shop motion floodlight works great! The heavy snow actually turned it on…Before the power went out that morning. 

7827DDCA-0EEB-4395-AF45-4D6E231296F5.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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For some reason the Portland NWS has bumped UP their forecast highs Sat-Tues to 94,95,94,89. Doesn't seem to be supported by any model I can find.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My shop motion floodlight works great! The heavy snow actually turned it on…Before the power went out that morning. 

7827DDCA-0EEB-4395-AF45-4D6E231296F5.jpeg

Of course if the light is facing you then you have to put your hand up to block the light.   I had to do that as a kid since the main outside light at our house back then was on the detached garage and facing the kitchen window.   My mom still tells stories of me being up all night when it was snowing standing in the kitchen turning on the driveway light every 5 minutes and holding my hand just right to see the snow falling.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

High of 72 yesterday. Low of 49 this morning.

Doesn't get much more pleasant than that. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Has anyone seen this video? I will admit, I've never seen a tornado on a very high mountain side 😳 

 

@hawkstwelve posted that yesterday.  Amazing video!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There’s a thermal trough on Sunday so the easterlies will be cranking. On Monday the gradients weaken so moisture can build up at the surface and crank up the sfc dew point but it’s not going to saturate a 2+ km deep mixed layer This is why there are like 5 different formulas for CAPE depending on the type or convection. SBCAPE is for surface convection which applies to postfrontal showers in onshore flow. If you want to use SBCAPE, use the numbers right at the cascade crest. That is the correct CAPE. 

I understand your reasoning in most situations, but I don't get why there couldn't be surface based convection in this admittedly unconventional setup. The GFS is far too dry and the Euro is probably overdoing evapotranspiration, but there is real subtropical moisture that is on its way as it retrogrades in from the east around the bottom of the developing heat dome.

Falling heights associated with that cutoff will aid in mixing that midlevel moisture down to the surface, helped by that rigorous descent the heat dome is forcing. Weak offshore steering winds mean some pop up convection is pretty likely somewhere, at least in the foothills... This is true even with our more tepid convective airmasses.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There’s a thermal trough on Sunday so the easterlies will be cranking. On Monday the gradients weaken so moisture can build up at the surface and crank up the sfc dew point but it’s not going to saturate a 2+ km deep mixed layer This is why there are like 5 different formulas for CAPE depending on the type or convection. SBCAPE is for surface convection which applies to postfrontal showers in onshore flow. If you want to use SBCAPE, use the numbers right at the cascade crest. That is the correct CAPE. 

That makes since. Monsoon thunderstorms are usually elevated right?

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I understand your reasoning in most situations, but I don't get why there couldn't be surface based convection in this admittedly unconventional setup. The GFS is far too dry and the Euro is probably overdoing evapotranspiration, but there is real subtropical moisture that is on its way as it retrogrades in from the east around the bottom of the developing heat dome.

Falling heights associated with that cutoff will aid in mixing that midlevel moisture down to the surface, helped by that rigorous descent the heat dome is forcing. Weak offshore steering winds mean some pop up convection is pretty likely somewhere, at least in the foothills... This is true even with our more tepid convective airmasses.

You made a good point about whether this is surface-based convection or not. You're right that it's not a classic elevated case where the storms are forming on top of a boundary layer inversion. Technically the convection is surface based but given the depth of the mixed layer you're looking at an LCL of like 2.5-3.0 km so it will look like elevated convection given the high cloud bases. And it's still way too dry for any parcel lifted from the surface to actually form a thunderstorm. So you're dependent on parcels lifting from a higher level (over the mountains or foothills) where they don't have to overcome that deep dry surface layer. 

There's going to be minimal directional shear, so it's dependent on storms forming over the foothills and drifting over the lowlands. I don't see this event being any more exceptional than other cases where we've seen that happen. But given the lack of decent convection in this region, we take what we can get, right? 

 

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8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yo @TT-SEA check out this home in your neck of the woods. It says the elevation is @ 1600ft possibly. Probably does killer in snowstorms.

 

https://www.redfin.com/WA/North-Bend/37232-Se-191st-St-98045/home/2089569

Looked it up on a map... that is actually east of Maple Valley on the other side of Rattlesnake Ridge.   No idea how that address is North Bend.   Per Google maps it takes 37 minutes to get from that house to NB and involves going on Hwy 18 and I-90 and coming in from the west.   There are no roads to get to that house from my house without going on the freeway.   That being said... its probably only 2 or 3 miles away from here as the crow flies.   There is just a 3,000 ft ridge between here and there.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looked it up on a map... that is actually east of Maple Valley on the other side of Rattlesnake Ridge.   No idea how that address is North Bend.   Per Google maps it takes 37 minutes to get from that house to NB and involves going on Hwy 18 and I-90 and coming in from the west.   There are no roads to get to that house from my house without going on the freeway. 

Oh interesting. I just assumed it connected to Rattlesnake ridge since it had a NB addy. I didn't realize there was houses that high on that side.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looked it up on a map... that is actually east of Maple Valley on the other side of Rattlesnake Ridge.   No idea how that address is North Bend.   Per Google maps it takes 37 minutes to get from that house to NB and involves going on Hwy 18 and I-90 and coming in from the west.   There are no roads to get to that house from my house without going on the freeway.   That being said... its probably only 2 or 3 miles away from here as the crow flies.   There is just a 3,000 ft ridge between here and there.

Can you get to Rattlesnake Lake from there via mountain bike? 

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh interesting. I just assumed it connected to Rattlesnake ridge since it had a NB addy. I didn't realize there was houses that high on that side.

I am not sure about the highest elevation with houses on the other side of the ridge.   On this side... I think we are at the highest elevation possible with homes at around 1,000 feet.

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Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Can you get to Rattlesnake Lake from there via mountain bike? 

No clue.   There are probably some forest roads in there that go around the ridge and come out at the lake.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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