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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

hmmm. There is a open house this weekend. I might have to go check it out. I am curious now😂

Really strange... there are like 10 homes out there in the middle of nowhere miles away from anything else at the end of a long, narrow, heavily wooded road coming east out of the Maple Valley area.

 

houe.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Really strange... there are like 10 homes out there in the middle of nowhere miles away from anything else at the end of a long, narrow, heavily wooded road.  

I was gonna say the same. Maybe started out as some cultish/homesharing type of neighborhood lol

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yo @TT-SEA check out this home in your neck of the woods. It says the elevation is @ 1600ft possibly. Probably does killer in snowstorms.

 

https://www.redfin.com/WA/North-Bend/37232-Se-191st-St-98045/home/2089569

I live close to that spot. 
 

That is just north of Ravensdale. Even though that is a North Bend address it is considered the far north end of Maple Valley. There is nothing around those properties. But you are not far from Highway 18.
 

There is no road access from there to North Bend because the Seattle watershed is on the North Side of that property and civilians are not allowed to access the watershed.
 

I can literally see North Bend and rattlesnake ledge from the ridge behind my house. 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really strange... there are like 10 homes out there in the middle of nowhere miles away from anything else at the end of a long, narrow, heavily wooded road coming east out of the Maple Valley area.

 

houe.jpg

19 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I was gonna say the same. Maybe started out as some cultish/homesharing type of neighborhood lol

If I die going to this open house, @RentonHill can have my account on here..

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9 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah it’s for real lmao. The excessive heat watch is for temps in the mid 80s to low 90s. 😂

654DBFB2-D4CB-4906-99EF-1EFE3604C1E6.jpeg

Everybody knows heatwaves are worse during periods of increasing sun angles!  🤓

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10 hours ago, Phil said:

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

It's all about where you live and what you are used to. Most folks and even a lot of businesses do not have A/C.  My office regularly got up around 80 in the summer.  My nephew came out for a visit (he lived in S. Georgia) in late April and he was in pants and a heavy jacket while I was in shorts, t-shirt and sandals. 

When my brother died it was in late September, and we had already cooled into the 40's to 50's here.  I went back to S. Georgia for 2 weeks, and it was in the mid to upper 90's the whole time.  I got wrecked the first few days, but then wearing a suit for the wake and funeral, plus the exertion of packing up his house I acclimated to those temperatures.  I absolutely froze my nuts off the rest of the winter back here in the PNW.  I think my body decided I had already used up my yearly allotment of season/climate changes.  😆

I still can't believe that as a teenager, I worked in a warehouse where the temperature was up around 120-125 during heatwaves, and the humidity was awful.  We hovered around huge industrial fans whenever we got the chance.    It was a tobacco warehouse, and many of the buyers were from Kentucky and Virginia.  They tried complaining to OSHA, and were basically told "its f*cking SOUTH GEORGIA!!!  What do you expect?!?!?"  We were usually done by 3:30 before the worst of the heat, but sometimes we had to work late to get ready for a sale, or a farmer had called ahead to tell us he was coming in late with his load.

 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Really strange... there are like 10 homes out there in the middle of nowhere miles away from anything else at the end of a long, narrow, heavily wooded road coming east out of the Maple Valley area.

 

houe.jpg

Sounds like my kind of area!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 hours ago, Phil said:

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

The heat couple years ago resulted in many deaths. You’re comparing orange and apple based on locale. You’re a sharp guy, but to “lmao” at a Watch is dense. 
 

And yes, we do have watches here once we near are near 90s. 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The heat couple years ago resulted in many deaths. You’re comparing orange and apple based on locale. You’re a sharp guy, but to “lmao” at a Watch is dense. 
 

And yes, we do have watches here once we near are near 90s. 

It is more about the overnight lows than the daytime highs. No way to cool a lot of homes. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Water off the west coast is already warming even before the extended ridgy period begins.   First map is 7-day change.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (1).png

2023 (8).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I understand your reasoning in most situations, but I don't get why there couldn't be surface based convection in this admittedly unconventional setup. The GFS is far too dry and the Euro is probably overdoing evapotranspiration, but there is real subtropical moisture that is on its way as it retrogrades in from the east around the bottom of the developing heat dome.

Falling heights associated with that cutoff will aid in mixing that midlevel moisture down to the surface, helped by that rigorous descent the heat dome is forcing. Weak offshore steering winds mean some pop up convection is pretty likely somewhere, at least in the foothills... This is true even with our more tepid convective airmasses.

You’re correct re: the GFS. Major bias to overmix/dry the BL. Basically useless for surface temps in the summer.

It has shown 115°F readings here many times. :lol: 

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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies looks quite dry through almost the end of June.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-qpf_anom_46day-7737600.png

That 46-day anomaly arises almost entirely from the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks (ensemble spread is higher in longer ranges so mean is skewed by nearer term anomalies).

In fact, June is likely to be wetter than average for most if not all of the PNW region. Probably won’t see that pattern change reflected in guidance for a couple of weeks, though.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

That 46-day anomaly arises almost entirely from the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks (ensemble spread is higher in longer ranges so mean is skewed by nearer term anomalies).

In fact, June is likely to be wetter than average for most if not all of the PNW region. Probably won’t see that pattern change reflected in guidance for a couple of weeks, though.

I have a feeling June might be wetter than normal.   Seems like a logical progression after a warm/dry May.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Water off the west coast is already warming even before the extended ridgy period begins.   First map is 7-day change.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (1).png

2023 (8).png

FWIW that “cold horseshoe” SSTA signature is impressively entrenched in the subsurface waters there, reflecting down to at least 100m! 😱 Guess that’s what 3+ years of the same off-equatorial circulation will do.

So yes those SSTAs will spike up, but it will be super easy to erode when the pattern changes. Like, knock-it-over-with-a-feather type easy. So I wouldn’t read much into it.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

That 46-day anomaly arises almost entirely from the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks (ensemble spread is higher in longer ranges so mean is skewed by nearer term anomalies).

In fact, June is likely to be wetter than average for most if not all of the PNW region. Probably won’t see that pattern change reflected in guidance for a couple of weeks, though.

A wet June would be an amazing blessing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Although June of 2009 and 2018 ended up quite a bit drier than normal in Seattle... and a little warmer than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Although June of 2009 and 2018 ended up quite a bit drier than normal in Seattle... and a little warmer than normal.

I have not seen anyone predict a cool June?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have not seen anyone predict a cool June?

Dont think so.   I could envision a humid and wet pattern at times in June.   Maybe similar to the first week of June last year. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dont think so.   I could envision a humid and wet pattern at times in June.   Maybe similar to the first week of June last year. 

June-August we can only hope for a moderate positive anomaly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have not seen anyone predict a cool June?

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

Yes, I will validate your lived experience.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

That makes since. Monsoon thunderstorms are usually elevated right?

It depends! Up here terrain blocks much of the best moisture, so there's almost no mechanism for sfc moisture advection from the monsoon to our south. And what little does make it beyond the crest may never touch the ground due to cold Pacific air hugging the surface like a dense, cold blanket, preventing that moisture from mixing to the surface... So it ends up gliding overhead no matter what.

There are ways to get it to the ground, like this upcoming weekend's pattern, but they're really janky and usually involve some really screwy meteorology, such as thermal downsloping and record heat, or upper level disturbances retrograding from North Dakoda to the Gulf of Alaska.

Deeply entrenched southerly flow can do it too, since we can tap into some really tropical Pacific air. But those systems are entirely stratoform by default and lack the dry air aloft you need to get instability. Occasionally though, you can get a huge bowling ball ULL to dig right offshore and acquire negative tilt right as the best moisture is skirting through, allowing for dry air from the SW to advect in above that moist Pacific air. 5/4/17 is a textbook example. Strong upstream ridging is an almost necessary precursor to those convective outbreaks, since you need to warm up those moist sfc parcels...Otherwise it's a marine layer soup.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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53 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

Well 6 years isn’t nearly long enough to reach such conclusions. There are plenty of examples of ridgy Mays that didn’t go on to become ridgy summers.

For what little it’s worth, I highly doubt this summer will be a ridgefest (or a troughfest) up there. Tbh it looks pretty unremarkable to me after this +dAAMt/base state transition completes (sometime between Memorial Day and the first week of June).

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Just now, Phil said:

Well 6 years isn’t nearly long enough to reach such conclusions. There are plenty of examples of ridgy Mays that didn’t go on to become ridgy summers.

For what little it’s worth, I highly doubt this summer will be a ridgefest (or a troughfest) there. Tbh it looks pretty unremarkable to me after this +dAAMt/base state transition completes (sometime between Memorial Day and the first week of June).

I know, I was mostly kidding/being a pessimist. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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EPS hinting at a significant W-Hem/W-IO MJO event during the first half of June. That’ll be interesting.

IMG_3418.png

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS hinting at a significant W-Hem/W-IO MJO event during the first half of June. That’ll be interesting.

IMG_3418.png

Interesting how?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Pretty sure a lot of areas starting tomorrow through Monday will have high temps 4-6 degrees higher than currently modeled.

This. Pretty sure we will over perform the model temps almost everywhere

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

I’m worried it won’t rain again till September. Once we get in these patterns it is hard to break in our new climate. 

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