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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Common strategy on here is using "reverse psychology" on Mother Nature.

It works about 50% of the time.

So it doesn't work at all!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sorry I’ve been missing a bunch. About 72F here in town. Best weather conditions on the planet IMO.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Was going to try and get the boat started up and prepped for putting in the water tomorrow morning, but I spent this afternoon evicting mice and cleaning up their winter party instead. Was like a college dorm in there…The funk was terrible, That was fun. Even stared down one of them when I lifted up the seat to check the storage area…I think it wanted to fight me for a second but decided to leave peacefully. What a mess…I need a big shop. 

37745A19-33DD-4C6A-AB8B-12571E862DE5.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

We’ll see how green a week from now. 

8B069DAB-4E20-4D97-8C72-86E7EE187907.jpeg

My guess is it will still be green. It's May. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting how?

Will begin the poleward transfer of +AAM deposited in the subtropics. Some kind of extended-jet/wet pattern (by June standards) seems increasingly likely. Not sure it’ll be all that chilly, though.

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Low of 50 so far here after a 78/49 spread yesterday. The heat looks pretty toned down for the next several days compared to what was shown earlier this week. Still a lot of sustained warmth though. Hope we can get some thunderstorms out of this pattern at very least.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 50 so far here after a 78/49 spread yesterday. The heat looks pretty toned down for the next several days compared to what was shown earlier this week. Still a lot of sustained warmth though. Hope we can get some thunderstorms out of this pattern at very least.

My DM's from IBR Chris have cooled down dramatically.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM range image.thumb.png.fd9697d3ba847e2540eb115cd7ec1251.png

Cape Canaveral 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already up to 65 here this morning.  

You may live in the warmest location in W. Wa by your telling. Even when you have snow on the ground for days it never goes below freezing!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You may live in the warmest location in W. Wa by your telling. Even when you have snow on the ground for days it never goes below freezing!

It's 66 now at the station closest to my house.   Light east wind this morning.   It is what it is Andrew.   And we were below freezing all the time last December which is why our snow cover lasted for weeks.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When there is offshore flow... my area can often be one of the warmest spots in western WA.   Happens quite frequently out here.    Also happens when there is weak onshore flow in the summer months when the marine air can't make it out this far.  Conversely... with a pattern like last Friday with stratiform rain and thick low clouds we were one of the coolest spots in western WA.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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@SilverFallsAndrew here is a good visual for you... the ECMWF temp map at 9 a.m. shows the warmest temps in the foothills.   Not sure how you have lived here this long and not know how it works with offshore flow.  😀

SEA is up to 63 now as well.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-3907200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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53 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM range image.thumb.png.fd9697d3ba847e2540eb115cd7ec1251.png

Guess I need to read up on CAPE numbers…Is 1000 good for rumbles? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z GFS and 12Z GEM now show the ULL getting up to about Portland before falling apart and slowly migrating to the east by Monday.  Previous runs had it going up into Vancouver Island.    Still close enough for convective action across western WA but farther south might be best.

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-4216800.png

gfs-deterministic-nw-z500_anom-1683892800-1684022400-1684238400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up to 70 now here and in North Bend.  Warmest day so far in North Bend has been 88 on 4/28 (86 here that day)... not sure if it will get that warm today but it is on pace at this point to do that.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 70 now here and in North Bend.  Warmest day so far in North Bend has been 88 on 4/28 (86 here that day)... not sure if it will get that warm today but it is on pace now to do that.

I imagine you will hit 90+ 3-4 days this heatwave. The model numbers always seems to undercut the foothill heat. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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20 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I imagine you will hit 90+ 3-4 days this heatwave. The model numbers always seems to undercut the foothill heat. 

That would be impressive for May. Doesn't look like Palmer has ever done more than two 90+ in a row in May.

A forum for the end of the world.

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14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That would be impressive for May. Doesn't look like Palmer has ever done more than two 90+ in a row in May.

And I could see it staying below 90 this time around.   Sometimes when offshore flow is stronger the coast can be warmer than out here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

And I could see it staying below 90 this time around.   Sometimes when offshore flow is stronger the coast can be warmer than out here.  

We get to find out soon!

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

I remember the “super niño” hype in 2014, thought it was ridiculous at the time and indeed it turned out to be. But it was for different reasons than this year..the manner in which this El Niño is developing is so wildly different than 2014 I wouldn’t even reference it outside the context of how wholly inadequate seasonal/climate models are at projecting ENSO.

Again this year, such “super niño” rhetoric is largely hype, yes. Healthy El Niño is likely, but these model solutions with +1.5°C by July/August are just cuckoo IMO.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You may live in the warmest location in W. Wa by your telling. Even when you have snow on the ground for days it never goes below freezing!

It only snows at Tim’s house when it’s above freezing. And it only rains when it’s sunny.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM now show the ULL getting up to about Portland before falling apart and slowly migrating to the east by Monday.  Previous runs had it going up into Vancouver Island.    Still close enough for convective action across western WA but farther south might be best.

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-4216800.png

gfs-deterministic-nw-z500_anom-1683892800-1684022400-1684238400-10.gif

They’ve both been pretty all over with the ULL. Looking forward to the EURO!

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Guess I need to read up on CAPE numbers…Is 1000 good for rumbles? 

Yeah if there’s sufficient forcing. Reason for those CAPE values is the ULL retrograding through the moat of high heights, and should augment terrain circulations enough for convective initiation, assuming be they’re above any marine air inversion (initiation will obviously happen well inland).

But CAPE can easily remain capped, always frustrating lol. We’ve had days with 4000+ CAPE but not a cloud in the sky thanks to sitting under a phat ass ridge/EML. Another reason why I like troughy summers.

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