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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

y r u a nights fan

We have some family that lives down there and we also had some ties to a kid who played here in Portland and was Vegas’ first ever draft pick back in 2017. Some of it is timing too. If Seattle had beat Vegas to the punch it might be a different story, but here we are. So, my brother and I will be one of the annoying folks in Knights sweaters for games 3 and/or 4 at the vegan palace if the starz align.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Dr. Roundy’s MJO based projection is very impressive with the duration of the warm pattern, keeping it cranking until mid-June (which is longer than I expect). Perfect high/low frequency overlap/constructive interference during this time period either way.

Also an impressive closed low over the 4-corners region in July.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s MJO based projection is very impressive with the duration of the warm pattern, keeping it cranking until mid-June (which is longer than I expect). Perfect high/low frequency overlap/constructive interference during this time period either way.

Also an impressive closed low over the 4-corners region in July.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

So we may stay warm until mid June?

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s MJO based projection is very impressive with the duration of the warm pattern, keeping it cranking until mid-June (which is longer than I expect). Perfect high/low frequency overlap/constructive interference during this time period either way.

Also an impressive closed low over the 4-corners region in July.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Certainly not seeing an end yet.image.thumb.png.97faa475bb8c5e90db59a171712ed504.png

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s MJO based projection is very impressive with the duration of the warm pattern, keeping it cranking until mid-June (which is longer than I expect). Perfect high/low frequency overlap/constructive interference during this time period either way.

Also an impressive closed low over the 4-corners region in July.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

Maybe we’ll get June 2021 redux for the finale

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13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Certainly not seeing an end yet.image.thumb.png.97faa475bb8c5e90db59a171712ed504.png

The fact that we are seeing this long of a heatwave already kind of has me worried for what this summer has in store. But Spring doesn’t define what summer is going to be like.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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5 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Easterlies broke through at Florence and the temp shot up from 61º at 10:15 p.m. to 81º at 11 p.m.

77º here after a high of 88º. Too early in the year to have to sleep with the a/c on!

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 11.03.22 PM.jpg

According to Cliff Mass these are cool easterlies.

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3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

So we may stay warm until mid June?

I think it’ll end ~ one week earlier than that, but either way this is one heck of a subseasonal event (augmented by developing El Niño low frequency state).

At least you’re getting the ridgefest out of the way early this year. Relative to average, this is almost certainly going to be the warmest, ridgiest pattern of the entire summer (*relative to average*, of course). And the most prolonged of such spells, as well.

After the zonal pattern in June, the rest of the summer looks like a pattern on sedatives. 💤 I’m already bored lol. Looks like a saggy, baggy, slow-moving pattern with muted anomalies but easy access to moisture in most regions. Only consistencies are (probably)? cooler/wetter SW US and Texas, warm in NW Canada and Northern Plains, while PNW region ends up in no-man’s land as none of the locally imprtant EOFs are matched following the flip to +NPO.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I think it’ll end ~ one week earlier than that, but either way this is one heck of a subseasonal event (augmented by developing El Niño low frequency state).

At least you’re getting the ridgefest out of the way early this year. Relative to average, this is almost certainly going to be the warmest, ridgiest pattern of the entire summer (*relative to average*, of course). And the most prolonged of such spells, as well.

After the zonal pattern in June, the rest of the summer looks like a pattern on sedatives. 💤 I’m already bored lol. Looks like a saggy, baggy, slow-moving pattern with muted anomalies but easy access to moisture in most regions. Only consistencies are (probably)? cooler/wetter SW US and Texas, warm in NW Canada and Northern Plains, while PNW region ends up in no-man’s land as none of the locally imprtant EOFs are matched following the flip to +NPO.

I sure hope you are right. Some of us see this as just a harbinger of the rest of summer. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some gusty offshore winds, a ridiculous 66 out there currently. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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One other note. I don't see how this doesn't end up the warmest May on record...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Models keep teasing us in the long range.

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The low looks a little more impressive than it did last night. The SPC is forecasting thunderstorms on the Eastside of Oregon, close to the Cascade range during the day. I'm kind of thinking there could be thunderstorms pushing into the Westside of the Cascade foothills overnight. I'll just need to see how fast this low moves during the day.

Looks like another warm day ahead. I think we may see the humidity rise today, which means it could feel a lot warmer 😕 

I hope all the mothers out there have a fabulous Mothers Day 🤗❤️⛈️

G18_sector_pnw_band09_24fr_20230514-0958.gif

Screenshot_20230514_065943_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230514_065956_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230514_070004_Chrome.jpg

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67 and very windy this morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

This is ridiculous. Troutdale Airport is showing 74° but a sensor close to where I live says 75° and another further West is showing 76° a little past 8am. Those East winds sure are making the temperatures rise really fast this morning 😳😕

Screenshot_20230514_080432_Chrome.jpg

77 degrees at pdx for the 8am reading. Gross for May. 

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Next weekend is pretty seasonal on the GFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Same here, really crazy for 9AM. Highest May temp I’ve recorded is 88 on 5/17/08. Very possible it’s surpassed today. 

ANALOG?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I sure hope you are right. Some of us see this as just a harbinger of the rest of summer. 

It really does feel like it. Especially given the prolonged nature of the upcoming heat.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

I think it’ll end ~ one week earlier than that, but either way this is one heck of a subseasonal event (augmented by developing El Niño low frequency state).

At least you’re getting the ridgefest out of the way early this year. Relative to average, this is almost certainly going to be the warmest, ridgiest pattern of the entire summer (*relative to average*, of course). And the most prolonged of such spells, as well.

After the zonal pattern in June, the rest of the summer looks like a pattern on sedatives. 💤 I’m already bored lol. Looks like a saggy, baggy, slow-moving pattern with muted anomalies but easy access to moisture in most regions. Only consistencies are (probably)? cooler/wetter SW US and Texas, warm in NW Canada and Northern Plains, while PNW region ends up in no-man’s land as none of the locally imprtant EOFs are matched following the flip to +NPO.

Even a placid zonal-fest might be enough to bring the coldest summer in over a decade. The standards are pathetically low right now given that all we need to avoid is near all time record persistent ridging.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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