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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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76/46 today and 78/45 yesterday. Fortunately so far this pattern as been much more temperate out this way. Hoping for a nice soaking tomorrow. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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That 18z RGEM is actually really intriguing. It shows what looks like an outflow driven convective band from the SSW. Modest shear means fast tower buildups, if skies can remain clear.

Very unusual convective meteorology on display tomorrow for western WA and OR. More akin to a continental climate.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That 18z RGEM is actually really intriguing. It shows what looks like an outflow driven convective band from the SSW. Modest shear means fast tower buildups, if skies can remain clear.

Very unusual convective meteorology on display tomorrow for western WA and OR. More akin to a continental climate.

How does tomorrow's setup compare to the one on May 3rd/4th?

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Just now, Doinko said:

How does tomorrow's setup compare to the one on May 3rd/4th?

Less shear but better thermodynamics. I'd say the severe potential is a little higher for where thunderstorms do form than it was back on 5/4/17, but the storms will also be less numerous, barring some spectacular organization.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Less shear but better thermodynamics. I'd say the severe potential is a little higher for where thunderstorms do form than it was back on 5/4/17, but the storms will also be less numerous, barring some spectacular organization.

Oh I meant the ones this year, didn't realize they fell on the same date! It wasn't really that crazy or widespread but it was the first decent light show I'd seen in a couple of years.

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84.7 max today, 83.5 yesterday. This is the earliest heat in my 6 years here. We went from way behind with bloom/leaf out to right on time. Kinda amazing really. This will be my best garden year. Sure hope Mother Nature helps out with watering. 

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Oh I meant the ones this year, didn't realize they fell on the same date! It wasn't really that crazy or widespread but it was the first decent light show I'd seen in a couple of years.

Oh lol, I know what you mean now. The potential is better, but storm behavior will probably be similar, if not more erratic. General slow E-W movement with good amounts of lightning.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I wonder if people will be caught off guard by the thunderstorms tomorrow. It doesn’t appear like it’s being talked about as much as it should.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Not a bad day in Central and Eastern Oregon. Highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ran to the lake house to mow late this afternoon, the temp was perfect with a north wind blowing. Neighbors dogs were loving it, you can see the ball splashing into the water and their Lab getting ready for liftoff! 

8C1ED232-87DD-4A4D-9513-92D97213A817.jpeg

6B3E483C-5F4F-4925-B7D0-41CC96261EAE.jpeg

E4259E62-F6EB-48B3-A368-9E33E690B3E1.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8F367977-02F8-4916-A3DC-E22842910022.png

haha, wow

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Never said anything about relating to average. Just the coldest since.

We've really departed in the last decade, climatologically speaking. A genuinely cold summer would soak the hearts of many here, especially the transplants.

I mean even a bonafide cool summer will happen at some point. The normal distribution of climatological average temperature has shifted to the right, but not nearly enough to preclude a “cool” summer.

The problem has been the interdecadal mode of circulation/seasonality over the last decade (since 2013), which has focused some of the warmest boreal summer anomalies in the PNW/W-Canada region.

These intra/inter-decadal system states don’t persist for too long, peak amplitude at that (not stationary) frequency is usually 8-15 years, with state dependence more prominent in early/late stages.

At some point it will end, probably sooner rather than later. In fact, a super niño is probably the easiest way to do it. 😆 

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

8F367977-02F8-4916-A3DC-E22842910022.png

haha, wow

NAM is often biased high with low level moisture. That’s almost certainly overdone.

GFS has the opposite problem. Overdoes mixing/BL drying.

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In isolation, the weather today was summer perfection. Too bad it's another record hot [fill in the statistic], after an endless decade of them.

Still had a fantastic time floating on Lake Washington with friends. The water was definitely chilly, but manageable with the strong afternoon sun to balance. Rainier & the Cascades were spectacular; it was honestly a little jarring to see the mountains so snow covered.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

NAM is often biased high with low level moisture. That’s almost certainly overdone.

GFS has the opposite problem. Overdoes mixing/BL drying.

I know, but I love looking at the pretty graphs and imagining sweet nothings of what could be, if only...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’ve noticed it over does CAPE as well.

It has projected a 90+ degree dewpoint here a couple of times over the years. I mean sure this climate can give the Florida Everglades a run for its money sometimes, but it ain’t Dubai. :lol: 

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3 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

How hot is too hot for @Cascadia_Wx?

Probably 65-70°F for Jesse, and 212°F for Tim.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA beat daily record from 2018 by 1 degree... 89 there today.

Thats gotta be low hanging fruit?

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05BA5101-D32A-4D98-8454-F7D2AC211991.jpeg

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know, but I love looking at the pretty graphs and imagining sweet nothings of what could be, if only...

I feel that.

FWIW, we’re as due for a dud severe season as you guys are for a dud winter. Maybe even more-so. Since the new NPAC regime started in 2013 we’ve had the perfect midsummer pattern for big-daddy convection almost each year. Only “dud” year was 2016 (which was a trash summer and trash autumn followed by a trash winter..just a trashy period in general 😆 ).

El Niño summers are almost always awesome in the severe department here, so my hunch is 2024 is when karma will finally catch up in a big way. Fully expect a 2016-repeat on steroids…massive ridging and scant convection throughout.

Or maybe I’m wishcasting and it will be this summer. Lol. Who in the hell knows at this point.

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Just now, Phil said:

I feel that.

FWIW, we’re as due for a dud severe season as you guys are for a dud winter. Maybe even more-so. Since the new NPAC regime started in 2013 we’ve had the perfect midsummer pattern for big-daddy convection almost each year. Only “dud” year was 2016 (which was a trash summer and trash autumn followed by a trash winter..just a trashy period in general 😆 ).

El Niño summers are almost always awesome in the severe department here, so my hunch is 2024 is when karma will finally catch up in a big way. Fully expect a 2016-repeat on steroids…massive ridging and scant convection throughout.

Or maybe I’m wishcasting and it will be this summer. Lol. Who in the hell knows at this point.

We're getting your summertime environment tomorrow, maybe you'll get our perma-capped ridgefest!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We're getting your summertime environment tomorrow, maybe you'll get our perma-capped ridgefest!

Haha. Well if ridging must exist somewhere I’d rather it stay out there. 😉 Still have nightmares about 2011, which sucked donkey taint on all levels. Didn’t have a single storm meet severe criteria here, mid level lapse rates were consistently shitty under that perma-ridge. Only a couple storms delivered close CTG lightning.

Also was in an anti-precip dome in 2011, got like 3” all summer until hurricane Irene at the end of August. Lots of tree damage from that because of drought stress.

Would even take another 2022/23 winter if it meant avoiding a 2011 (et al) repeat.

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

KHQM broke their all time May high temp record yesterday, and then decided eff it, let's break that one today.  Mid 90's here both days.  Top tier event for sure out this way, maybe not as anomalous as June 2021, but D**n impressive. 

Totally different at Seatac high of 89 today had been reached as early as April 16th back in 2016. 

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Congratulations, soldiers. We fought the good fight today and won. KSEA managed to avoid 90F today. That's worth a cold beer on the porch.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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