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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. Well if ridging must exist somewhere I’d rather it stay out there. 😉 Still have nightmares about 2011, which sucked donkey taint on all levels. Didn’t have a single storm meet severe criteria here, mid level lapse rates were consistently shitty under that perma-ridge. Only a couple storms delivered close CTG lightning.

Also was in an anti-precip dome in 2011, got like 3” all summer until hurricane Irene at the end of August. Lots of tree damage from that because of drought stress.

Would even take another 2022/23 winter if it meant avoiding a 2011 (et al) repeat.

How do you know all the levels of donkey taint, that's the big question here?

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image.png

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

If the dryFS is on board with convection it’s usually a safe bet.

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Even the GFS has that dawg in it.

No colors over my house. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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What's SEA's record for consecutive 75 degree days in May? I know their record for 80+ is four which they're going to shatter but it looks like they'll also probably have 10 straight at least 75 which seems just as crazy.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That 18z RGEM is actually really intriguing. It shows what looks like an outflow driven convective band from the SSW. Modest shear means fast tower buildups, if skies can remain clear.

Very unusual convective meteorology on display tomorrow for western WA and OR. More akin to a continental climate.

Absolutely fascinating event. It looks like the majority of the good activity tomorrow is going to blow up on sea breeze boundaries — along the I-5 corridor from Olympia south and also in the east sound before propagating toward the Sound. If I was chasing this I would hang out in Thurston county. 

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Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:37 p.m. PDT Sunday 14 May 2023.

Discussion.

The following areas will have set or tied a daily maximum 
temperature record on May 14, 2023: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of 33.6 
Old record of 32.8 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 34.5 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1912 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 26.0 set in 2016 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.9 
Old record of 29.6 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
Preliminary new record of 30.4 
Old record of 29.4 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 34.2 
Old record of 33.9 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 33.9 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 28.3 
Old record of 28.1 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 31.9 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1949 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Dawson Creek Area (Dawson Creek A) 
Preliminary new record of 31.1 
Old record of 29.4 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1926 

Estevan Point Area (Estevan Point CS) 
Preliminary new record of 23.7 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 34.9 
Old record of 32.8 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
Preliminary new record of 31.9 
Old record of 30.2 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lillooet Area (Lillooet) 
Preliminary new record of 34.9 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1917 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 34.8 
Old record of 33.9 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 28.3 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of 28.9 
Old record of 26.7 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Nakusp Area (Nakusp CS) 
Preliminary new record of 29.1 
Old record of 28.1 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1966 

Nelson Area (Nelson CS) 
Preliminary new record of 29.9 
Old record of 29.4 set in 1912 
Records in this area have been kept since 1904 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.0 
Old record of 34.0 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
Preliminary new record of 32.3 
Old record of 32.2 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Currently tied record of 32.8 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Port Hardy Area (Port Hardy A) 
Preliminary new record of 26.3 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Powell River Area (Powell River) 
Preliminary new record of 29.5 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1924 

Revelstoke Area (Revelstoke Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 31.7 
Old record of 31.1 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1898 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 30.5 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 35.8 
Old record of 29.2 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Vernon Area (Vernon Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 31.6 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1912 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 31.7 
Old record of 27.6 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
Preliminary new record of 31.1 
Old record of 28.9 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

White Rock Area (White Rock Campbell Scientific) 
Preliminary new record of 29.3 
Old record of 26.1 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1929 

Yoho (National Park) Area (Yoho Park) 
Preliminary new record of 28.6 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1923 
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Euro weeklies (valid 5/11) have below average highs returning to Seattle during mid-June. Kind of just melds into climo.

IMG_3478.png

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Congratulations, soldiers. We fought the good fight today and won. KSEA managed to avoid 90F today. That's worth a cold beer on the porch.

NWS is going with 88 tomorrow...ripe for underachieving that if the convection can get going by early afternoon.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro weeklies have below average highs returning to Seattle during mid-June. Kind of just melds into climo.

IMG_3478.png

And the inverse here. Next 3 weeks look perfect, then the dreaded Tim weather starts week-4.

IMG_3442.png

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

And the inverse here. Next 3 weeks look perfect, then the dreaded Tim weather starts week-4.

IMG_3442.png

I know you've mentioned the 1957 analog a number of times...was looking into it this evening, and that was the wettest May on record for DEN with 7.31". And after the deluge last week, May 2023 is running much wetter than normal - top 10 is basically a lock with half the month remaining, and top 5 looks very doable.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I know you've mentioned the 1957 analog a number of times...was looking into it this evening, and that was the wettest May on record for DEN with 7.31". And after the deluge last week, May 2023 is running much wetter than normal - top 10 is basically a lock with half the month remaining, and top 5 looks very doable.

Ha, that’s interesting indeed. Yeah 1957 sticks out to me in enough ways that I have to consider in an analog pool. Even seems the MJO/dAAMt cycle(s) are aligned, which is fascinating.

Not a fan of old years generally speaking but it’s impossible not to consider it this time around. Probably the best all-around match.

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5 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Is there any chance you can include Oregon instead of focusing on just the Seattle area? 

I figure you can go on weather.us yourself it’s a free site. Doesn’t look as significant in Oregon. But I guess I could post closeups of PDX too in each post. 

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I figure you can on weather.us yourself it’s a free site.

When I post stuff, I try to include the PNW not just for myself unless it's just one area that is having action. I thought this site is to help everyone, not just myself. 

Now, the low is crossing Oregon now. You can see the center almost in the center of Oregon. 

G18_sector_pnw_band09_24fr_20230515-0215.gif

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4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

When I post stuff, I try to include the PNW not just for myself unless it's just one area that is having action. I thought this site is to help everyone, not just myself. 

Now, the low is crossing Oregon now. You can see the center almost in the center of Oregon. 

G18_sector_pnw_band09_24fr_20230515-0215.gif

If someone wants to post about  Oregon weather I would be interested in that. But I don’t expect Oregon people to post about Washington too often.

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On the Pendleton radar, you can see some small showers. The one thing that interests me is they are individual showers. Just like what the mid-west and Central Plains would see with supercell thunderstorms. Not saying that is what is happening. But what could be interesting is these showers building into individual thunderstorms instead of a big cluster of thunderstorms. That's if they build into thunderstorms. It also looks like there is a lot of shear at the higher levels because you can see the top of the shower stretching out. 

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-PDT-N0B-20230515-0632-24-100.gif

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26 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

On the Pendleton radar, you can see some small showers. The one thing that interests me is they are individual showers. Just like what the mid-west and Central Plains would see with supercell thunderstorms. Not saying that is what is happening. But what could be interesting is these showers building into individual thunderstorms instead of a big cluster of thunderstorms. That's if they build into thunderstorms. It also looks like there is a lot of shear at the higher levels because you can see the top of the shower stretching out. 

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-PDT-N0B-20230515-0632-24-100.gif

I think it’s the multi-cell lines that we almost never get around here.

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Congratulations, soldiers. We fought the good fight today and won. KSEA managed to avoid 90F today. That's worth a cold beer on the porch.

Another shot on Monday I think but Mother’s Day felt like it was the best chance. That May 17th number may just live on. 

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The new place we moved into back in March seems to be holding on the cool air inside quite well compared to the old house. We’re not in direct sunlight  and there is more shading in the afternoon. Despite the mid-80s last week and near 90 Sunday, I didn’t have to set up the AC this weekend, even though it was planned. The fan seems to work wonder. 
 

If this is what we’ll deal with the rest of the summer, I’ll be happy! Trying to not run the AC as much. At the old place, this is an AC type of day, a lot more exposure to sunlight throughout the day. 

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06z GFS was delightful. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The green is exploding. 

EC219027-DCAC-431F-B21B-1492B1A59033.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Enjoy tomorrow everyone! These opportunities are rare around here. Taking the day off work to enjoy it. Huge potential. 

Called in today too. Gonna be a special cloud watching day.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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