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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And the sun is back out now.   It's a steam bath out there.

“Steam bath” w/ a dewpoint of 60°F? Bruh that’s a desert. :lol:

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Maybe more monsoon moisture in June

A lot more moisture in general, I think. Not just monsoonal but Pacific influence as well.

2 hours ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Big time lightning here on Snoqualmie ridge at the golf tourney. This photo from my golf cart. It screwed up my phone when taking  IMG_7397.thumb.png.dd0a3a9be21d0dd2381e55473c9a63fe.png

Awesome catch!

2 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

How many Mississippi's between the flash and the boom?  I've had once instance of it being almost simultaneous while outside.  Not a good feeling.

Those are my favorite! Both the instantaneous ones and the ones where you can hear it slice through the air like a knife.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the MJO has basically ground to halt for at least a couple weeks after cruising through almost all the phases since late April.   Not sure what that means... but phase 7 tends to be warm from May-July.  

 

GMON (1).png

Wrong, the phase diagram doesn’t filter for the low frequency state, so it’s not telling you anything about the MJO.

But if you look carefully at VP200 hovmollers you’ll see it’s more of a phase 8/1 base state, not phase 7.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Steam bath” w/ a dewpoint of 60°F? Bruh that’s a desert. :lol:

A lot more moisture in general, I think. Not just monsoonal but Pacific influence as well.

Awesome catch!

Those are my favorite! Both the instantaneous ones and the ones where you can hear it slice through the air like a knife.

Wrong, the phase diagram doesn’t filter for the low frequency state, so it’s not telling you anything about the MJO.

But if you look carefully at VP200 hovmollers you’ll see it’s more of a phase 8/1 base state, not phase 7.

The "MJO forecast" doesn't tell us anything about the MJO.   Got it.   😀

I used that same diagram to track the late April warm spell and the current warm spell.  But I am also sure I don't understand all of the factors.    I am very simple Phil.   I can barely understand Randy's PNA charts... other than up is good and down is bad!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The "MJO forecast" doesn't tell us anything about the MJO.   Got it.   😀

I used that same diagram to track the late April warm spell and the current warm spell.  But I am also sure I don't understand all of the factors.    I am very simple Phil.   I can barely understand Randy's PNA charts other than up is good and down is bad!

Again: That phase diagram doesn’t filter out the MJO from the amalgamation of factors that project onto VP/OLR fields (ERWs, ENSO/low frequency state(s), etc. It is an *unfiltered* phase diagram.

So no, it’s not always an accurate depiction of the MJO, and this is one such case. At the longer ranges in particular these problems exponentiate.

Does this make sense now? :) 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Again: That phase diagram doesn’t filter out the MJO from the amalgamation of factors that project onto VP/OLR fields (ERWs, ENSO/low frequency state(s), etc. It is an *unfiltered* phase diagram.

So no, it’s not always an accurate depiction of the MJO, and this is one such case. At the longer ranges in particular these problems exponentiate.

Does this make sense now? :) 

Not at all.   But I will take your word for it. 😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not at all.   But I will take your word for it. 😁

FWIW there was very little interference from ERWs/base state back in April, so the MJO component stood out much better. The unfiltered phase diagrams picked it up easily.

This time it’s different. There was recently an ERW and the low frequency state is strengthening (developing El Niño). I would recommend utilizing VP200 hovmoller diagrams to track the MJO in what is increasingly becoming a sea of noise.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

FWIW there was little in the way of interference from ERWs/base state back in April, so the MJO component stood out much better. This time it’s different. I would recommend utilizing VP200 hovmoller diagrams to track the MJO in what is increasingly becoming a sea of noise.

Thanks... I sort of understand that part.    Link?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

One of the best thunderstorms since I've moved here in 2010.  .76" of rain 28 mph wind gust and epic lightning!  It was amazing!

345036036_261325539734176_6880245713911762140_n.jpg

347096376_761762642398901_4802472593792951048_n.jpg

347432603_996726768159271_9107138600189993575_n.jpg

Wow... really jealous of that rainfall total.   The storms up here were basically dry.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks... I sort of understand that part.    Link?

You have access to hovmoller plots on weatherbell. For a variety of guidance (however, the ECMWF/EPS absolutely dominates both the GFS/GEFS and CMC/GEPS in this area).

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/hovmoller?d=-15_15__hovmoller_chi200_anom&pr=ecmwf-ensemble

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Caught one!

 

PXL_20230516_010440537.TS_exported_161725~2.jpg

Nice one! Looks like a CTG branch off an intracloud stroke.

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