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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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10 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Phil? Will this be the first year ever without a 4 Corners High?

First year since 2019 to have a weak/retracted 4CH, at least (IMO).

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Check out the SW US on the latest CMC ensembles. 7-day running average of 850mb temp anomalies, over the next 2+ weeks.

Weak 4CH influence (gradually) expands northward during the summer months. Inverse of 2022, which had truckloads of cold in W-Canada/PNW but building heat dome/4CH down south.

IMG_3575.gif

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

First year since 2019 to have a weak/retracted 4CH, at least (IMO).

Would be nice if this was a long term shift. I would even take more north centric heatwaves at times. It would still work out better for us overall in the warm season.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Might end up with the highest amplitude +IOD/+AMO ever recorded next month if this is the circulation pattern.

In fact that is what sticks out to me more than any El Niño signature. The most persistent anomalies are actually over the Indian Ocean, not the Pacific.

IMG_3573.pngIMG_3576.png

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18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be nice if this was a long term shift. I would even take more north centric heatwaves at times. It would still work out better for us overall in the warm season.

It’s possible. Does kind of feel like a shift, and it is at the right time in the solar-lagged IPWP cycle for some kind of change.

Can’t necessarily say what the change will be, though. My hunch is the IO/NATL sector might be where the shift happens in the nearer term, while longer term maybe it’ll be the eastern IPWP (after the niño)?

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5 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

Much longer than I thought. I was just looking at records from Centralia and realized it has records since 1893 but stopped in 2022.

There is signal service data that goes back into the 1850s at a few locations. Those were from observations taken 4 times a day, so the highs/lows aren’t exact. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So much light pollution in NYC the clouds were illuminated as if the sun never set. Doesn’t get dark *at all* here on nights with low clouds.

And apparently storm drains serve as makeshift outhouses in this neighborhood? 😆 Usually see at least one person doing their business while taking the dog out. Lmao.

But hey, at least there’s a more distinct marine influence here than back home! Low clouds and mist started misting as soon as winds turned onshore last night.

Oh yeah, and the boundary layer never decouples at night, thanks to the huge amount of UHI. No diurnal cycle in wind speeds like back home. Radiational cooling simply doesn’t exist here.

24/7 Uber eats and nightlife are fun perks but that’s not really my lifestyle. Would take an unbelievable job offer for me to live here, and even then I’d probably still be looking elsewhere.

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

So much light pollution in NYC the clouds were illuminated as if the sun never set. Doesn’t get dark *at all* here on nights with low clouds.

And apparently storm drains serve as makeshift outhouses in this neighborhood? 😆 Usually see at least one person doing their business while taking the dog out. Lmao.

But hey, at least there’s a more distinct marine influence here than back home! Low clouds and mist started misting as soon as winds turned onshore last night.

Oh yeah, and the boundary layer never decouples at night, thanks to the huge amount of UHI. No diurnal cycle in wind speeds like back home. Radiational cooling simply doesn’t exist here.

24/7 Uber eats and nightlife are fun perks but that’s not really my lifestyle. Would take an unbelievable job offer for me to live here, and even then I’d probably still be looking elsewhere.

If your not a city person I still recommend that young professionals get started in a city at first as it is a lot easier to network and move up. Have a long term goal of where you want to end up and work towards that. 

Remote work now makes living in your dream destination much more attainable as well. 

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11 hours ago, Phil said:

Check out the SW US on the latest CMC ensembles. 7-day running average of 850mb temp anomalies, over the next 2+ weeks.

Weak 4CH influence (gradually) expands northward during the summer months. Inverse of 2022, which had truckloads of cold in W-Canada/PNW but building heat dome/4CH down south.

IMG_3575.gif

Nino.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Had a decent marine intrusion this morning with a low of 54. Burning off a bit now with filtered sunshine and 64. Today could be our first sub-80 day since May 11th, a stretch which is off the walls unprecedented for this time of year. Although it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see PDX bump to 80 for a totally insane 9 in a row.

Looking forward to some pleasant, closer to average weather this coming week.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Well I woke up around 2 am to the sound up dumping rain but didn’t see any lightning or hear any thunder. Looks like that cell that hit the south sound was pretty intense.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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89 and Smoke. gross

was suppose to go to a beer fest today, but I'm not standing out on an asphalt lot with no shade in that to drink craft beer.

good thing is the heat looks done after today for at least a week.  hopefully the smoke too

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13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

89 and Smoke. gross

was suppose to go to a beer fest today, but I'm not standing out on an asphalt lot with no shade in that to drink craft beer.

good thing is the heat looks done after today for at least a week.  hopefully the smoke too

Hopefully at least a month.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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A little convective development to the east.   Absolutely perfect on the lake... air temp in the upper 70s and water temp of 71 and light wind. 

20230520_140232.jpg

20230520_140351.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

So much light pollution in NYC the clouds were illuminated as if the sun never set. Doesn’t get dark *at all* here on nights with low clouds.

And apparently storm drains serve as makeshift outhouses in this neighborhood? 😆 Usually see at least one person doing their business while taking the dog out. Lmao.

But hey, at least there’s a more distinct marine influence here than back home! Low clouds and mist started misting as soon as winds turned onshore last night.

Oh yeah, and the boundary layer never decouples at night, thanks to the huge amount of UHI. No diurnal cycle in wind speeds like back home. Radiational cooling simply doesn’t exist here.

24/7 Uber eats and nightlife are fun perks but that’s not really my lifestyle. Would take an unbelievable job offer for me to live here, and even then I’d probably still be looking elsewhere.

Well, sure. All options have their upsides and downsides. In the end, it’s a very personal decision. I still miss the dark night skies of my teen years in a fairly small town in New Mexico mountains.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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25 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

12z Euro blesses PDX north.

0236B7AC-D94F-4EDB-B8BC-D7E3C094CAA8.png

We just sit under this big, wacky bowling ball of stratoform rain. You love to see it.

Maybe these errant ULL's are how we make it to Phil's prophesized zonal period as we flip to June while avoiding a heatwave?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

89 and Smoke. gross

was suppose to go to a beer fest today, but I'm not standing out on an asphalt lot with no shade in that to drink craft beer.

good thing is the heat looks done after today for at least a week.  hopefully the smoke too

Pretty socked in here. 

smokymay.jpg

 

Side note: you can see exactly where I live in this image...

 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Got a good shot of the thunderstorms over the cascades.

3C87FC73-594D-497C-8422-41A2E5C895E2.jpeg

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, Eugene-5SW said:

I figured we'd have no trouble blowing well past the forecast high of 75º to achieve our 10th straight 80º+ high this May, and I was correct. Still 81º at nearly 6 p.m.

Yeah, the weak marine push this morning made things seem promising, but the upper level airmass is still really warm today. Lots of actual cooling by tomorrow at least.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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