Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

New blow up towards Snoqualmie Pass.   

This is an awesome shot.

[Meatyorologist]

Truth be told, it's been a nice stretch of weather right when the biosphere is in peak color. We avoided a 90F at KSEA, which is always a win. Nothing objectively unprecedented aside from the duration. Not to mention the frequent convective opportunities, which have been fun to track.

Really the only thing that sucks is that my lawn is beginning to show signs of dry stress. That's unfortunate considering it is only mid May. The good news is that the following week or so looks much more tame and seasonable, with some rain chances intermixed. There's a way we can halt or reverse that stress, beginning as soon as tonight.

[MossMan]

Wish I was at my uncles summer place right now…

[Ken in Wood Village]

A lot of lightning strikes. Hopefully these thunderstorms are producing a lot of rain or we will be hurting for forest fires just wish their moving direction was towards the West

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

A lot of lightning strikes. Hopefully these thunderstorms are producing a lot of rain or we will be hurting for forest fires just wish their moving direction was towards the West

PWATs are pretty decent today. And the vegetation isn't all that dry yet.

[LowerGarfield]

I'm too lazy to do the full car protection thing again this year, but I told my wife to be ready to use her snow shields for her windows in case we get some large hail tomorrow. Not sure my plan for our blue car yet.

[Deweydog]

In the fun fact department, PDX ended a run of 11 consecutive days with a high of 78 or better. May 10th through May 20th.

The next earliest… June 16th through 26th, 2021. If memory serves, there was a massive pattern CRASH on the 27th. I’ll look into it.

[T-Town]

May 11 and May 20. Hopefully some more rain before the big dry. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

May 11 and May 20. Hopefully some more rain before the big dry. 

Mine is green as can be still…Though it never dries out. Will look the same in September. Though the one grassy area in the front of the house that gets full sun all day does cook quickly. 

Edited May 21, 2023 by MossMan

[Ken in Wood Village]

Second day in a row that Oregon has a severe thunderstorm warning 🌩 it's funny that you don't see radar coverage in that one area because of Mt. Hood. 

[Meatyorologist]

I think our epidemic of brown summertime lawns speaks less to the stark aridity of our warm season, and more to the beneficial cooling power which forests provide. Heavily forested city arterials, such as the ones on Capitol Hill and Queen Anne, often run as much as 10-15F cooler than areas with only exposed concrete on clear Summer days. And the evapotranspiration canopies provide keeps the humidity much higher, and lowers the temperature even further.

UHI thermodynamics are actually quite microscale from an atmospheric dynamics perspective. The various surfaces and environments found in the city and how they are spatially oriented, on top of the existing topography of the area and its existing local scale climatology, both combine to create some zany temperature and wind differences on the scale of just a few meters. What rings true in these terms is loud and clear: we need more forested arterials in the city. They are a lifesaver, especially during heatwaves. And they are one more weapon in our arsenal against a heavily warming climate.

[lowlandsnow]

It is interesting looking at the daily record highs for stations in Western WA for this heatwave (when records began for each station is on the left). Overall, in Western WA in terms of high temperatures reached it was not that impressive. In general, more rural stations and stations with longer periods of records had less daily record highs. Most stations also had a warmer temperature occur earlier in the year or the same temp occur earlier in the year, 9 vs 3. So, the only really notable thing for this heatwave in Western WA was its duration.

 

1965 Upper Baker Dam 1 record high

1909 Cedar Lake 1 record high

1914 Diablo Dam 2 record highs

1905 Concrete 2 record highs

1949 Bellingham 2 record highs

1953 Hoquiam 2 record highs + May monthly record 

1899 Bremerton 2 record highs

1924 Startup 2 record highs

1966 Quillayute 3 record highs + monthly record tied (1987 hit 92 on May 7th)

 1960 Ross Dam 3 record highs

1948 Olympia 4 record highs

1945 Seatac 4 record highs

[Anti Marine Layer]

The onshore push should come in tonight and bells will be ringing. 

[Omegaraptor]

Marine layer moving in!

- DrunkRaptor

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

It is interesting looking at the daily record highs for stations in Western WA for this heatwave (when records began for each station is on the left). Overall, in Western WA in terms of high temperatures reached it was not that impressive. In general, more rural stations and stations with longer periods of records had less daily record highs. Most stations also had a warmer temperature occur earlier in the year or the same temp occur earlier in the year, 9 vs 3. So, the only really notable thing for this heatwave in Western WA was its duration.

 

1965 Upper Baker Dam 1 record high

1909 Cedar Lake 1 record high

1914 Diablo Dam 2 record highs

1905 Concrete 2 record highs

1949 Bellingham 2 record highs

1953 Hoquiam 2 record highs + May monthly record 

1899 Bremerton 2 record highs

1924 Startup 2 record highs

1966 Quillayute 3 record highs + monthly record tied (1987 hit 92 on May 7th)

 1960 Ross Dam 3 record highs

1948 Olympia 4 record highs

1945 Seatac 4 record highs

4 record highs at Olympia!   Oooph.  Front ranger is shedding a few tears.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like it's 55F out there. Been very pleasant.

[T-Town]

11 hours ago, MossMan said:

Mine is green as can be still…Though it never dries out. Will look the same in September. Though the one grassy area in the front of the house that gets full sun all day does cook quickly. 

The few shaded spots we have definitely stay green longer. But as you can see most of the yard is exposed to the sun. 

[MossMan]

Looks very marine like this morning! 51 degrees. 

[T-Town]

53 with some pretty heavy drizzle this morning. 

[T-Town]

Misty. I can hear the fog horn going on the Narrows Bridge. 

[MossMan]

Interesting…When I went to fill up my truck I noticed a line of clearing to the west over Camano Island but the layer was much thicker as you look east…The opposite of what you would typically see on a marine layer morning. Quite dark here at home but still a dry deck. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess last nights euro was really nice!

[Slushy Inch]

Models still figuring out next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Guess last nights euro was really nice!

You might not want to look at the 12Z GFS.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You might not want to look at the 12Z GFS.

A total flip flop. There has been a big difference between ensembles and ops indicating uncertainty. Ops have been way more bullish on a trough.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Models still figuring out next weekend.

Models have really been all over the place for next week.   It seemed like they settled on a ULL scenario yesterday but now the GFS and GEM are totally different again.    GFS went from chilly and showery on the 00Z run to showing another heat wave on the 12Z run.    Where will the wheel stop spinning?   They have to start locking on a solution in the next day or two.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

A total flip flop. There has been a big difference between ensembles and ops indicating uncertainty. Ops have been way more bullish on a trough.

I have been noticing that the ensembles have never really been on board with a big trough next weekend.   But the operational runs of all the models have been much stronger with troughing so figured it would happen.   12Z GFS muddies the water though.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM does bring in a weak system from the west by Sunday so its definitely not board with the heat wave shown on the GFS.    

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEM does bring in a weak system from the west by Sunday so its definitely not board with the heat wave shown on the GFS.    

GEFS looking warmer for Wednesday and Thursday.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like things are changing up there. Models are confused for Memorial Day weekend whether it will be cool and rainy for the PNW or hot and dry.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

Looks like things are changing up there. Models are confused for Memorial Day weekend whether it will be cool and rainy for the PNW or hot and dry.

Something in between is probably the most likely scenario.

[Anti Marine Layer]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Where will the wheel stop spinning?  .  

It will stop when the jet stream moves northward for the summer. 1 to 1/2 months from now.

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS seems to me moving towards a warm trend as well for next weekend. Jesse you seem to make up like 97 percent of downvotes in this forum. It’s kind of funny 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEFS seems to me moving towards a warm trend as well for next weekend.

GEFS shows that next trough moving down into Alaska more strongly and absorbing the ULL that other runs have shown moving down into the PNW next week.   But it might come back on the next run.   Who knows at this point?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Great trends this morning. I was starting to get a little worried we might not smash the all time hottest May on record by several degrees. Phew!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GEFS shows that next trough moving down into Alaska more strongly and absorbing the ULL that other runs have shown moving down into the PNW next week.   But it might come back on the next run.   Who knows at this point?

I have a backpacking trip on the 28th and 29th. It would be nice for it to be sunny.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly the 12Z ICON agrees almost perfectly with the GFS for next weekend... and also did a complete flip from its 00Z run.   The ICON is generally worthless but it is interesting that it had the same big change as the GFS.  That probably lends a little more credibility to the GFS.    But I also wouldn't be surprised to see the ECMWF stick to its guns and still show a deep trough.  

[Eugene-5SW]

Warmest May on record would seem to be a lock for many regional locations if any sort of ridgy solution verifies for next week. Most stations are currently running around +6.0 for the month.

[Eugene-5SW]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great trends this morning. I was starting to get a little worried we might not smash the all time hottest May on record by several degrees. Phew!

Oops, didn't see this until after I posted the above.

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly the 12Z ICON agrees almost perfectly with the GFS for next weekend... and also did a complete flip from its 00Z run.   The ICON is generally worthless but it is interesting that it had the same big change as the GFS.  That probably lends a little more credibility to the GFS.    But I also wouldn't be surprised to see the ECMWF stick to its guns and still show a deep trough.  

Betting on the GFS against the GEM and Euro is like playing 2-7 against pocket aces.