Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Betting on the GFS against the GEM and Euro is like playing 2-7 against pocket aces.

Against the ECMWF... definitely.   But the GEM has been swinging around to an insane level lately so it is basically worthless right now until it settles down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, even a cold trough won’t prevent a record smashingly hot May. Better luck next year I suppose. 

[Slushy Inch]

Euro looks even warmer as well with the newly introduced ridge building on Friday. Friday is massively warmer this run. One positive thing to keep in mind is that the mountains and east sides have got quite a bit of rain from all the thunderstorms.

[Slushy Inch]

I feel like I’ve seen this pattern recently… T storm pattern again. Time to wait and see.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also does a complete flip.   About as big of a change possible within 7 days.

[Slushy Inch]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF also does a complete flip.   About as big of a change possible within 7 days.

No thermal trough on this run so doesn’t get too hot.

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I feel like I’ve seen this pattern recently… T storm pattern again. Time to wait and see.

Been a complete flop up here other than some distant flashes and a little rain. 

Edited May 21, 2023 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

No thermal trough on this run so doesn’t get too hot.

12Z control run goes crazy with the ridging and heat next weekend.   12Z EPS is also significantly warmer than its 00Z run... but more muted obviously at that range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have a feeling it’s gonna be a short burn season. 

[TT-SEA]

Not normally happy about cloudy and cool on a weekend day... but today is perfect for yard work.   Cloudy and dry and around 60.   We had our water fun yesterday so today is very welcome.  Particularly if the models hold with the warm solution for next weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not normally happy about cloudy and cool on a weekend day... but today is perfect for yard work.   Cloudy and dry and around 60.   We had our water fun yesterday so today is very welcome.  Particularly if the models hold with the warm solution for next weekend.

Days like today are what I used to love about living here. 

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Days like today are what I used to love about living here. 

My wife said basically the same thing this morning.   She thinks the last few summers have been way too extreme and it's threatening what she loves most about this area.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear blue skies and 71F here.  Nice May weather looks to continue for awhile. 

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife said basically the same thing this morning.   She thinks the last few summers have been way too extreme and it's threatening what she loves most about this area.

Same wife who was threatening to leave after summer 2010?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Same wife who was threatening to leave after summer 2010?

Not after summer 2010... she was feeling homesick in June 2010 when it was raining every day and we had a little baby daughter.   She is not a fan of rain every day in the warm season and also not a fan of heat and drought.   I think she prefers less extremes and something in the middle... like most people.     

[LowerGarfield]

Severe T-storm watch has been issued for counties to my East and South. Not under anything at my current location. Not super concerned as the forecast today improved vs yesterday.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's finally warmer here in Southern California than Portland today, but that won't last long.

[TT-SEA]

Garden is doing great... 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is even warmer than the 12Z run for next weekend.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is even warmer than the 12Z run for next weekend.

Isn’t there a fire emoji? I can’t find it 

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not normally happy about cloudy and cool on a weekend day... but today is perfect for yard work.   Cloudy and dry and around 60.   We had our water fun yesterday so today is very welcome.  Particularly if the models hold with the warm solution for next weekend.

As long as we get a couple more weeks of record heat in exchange for these three satanic days all is well.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

As long as we get a couple more weeks of record heat in exchange for these three satanic days all is well.

Low to mid 70s would be ideal.    I remember in 2009 we started a long dry spell right about now that went until June 19th.  While there was a few hot days in there... most of the days were in the upper 60s to mid 70s.   It was amazingly pleasant.  Then we got about 1.5 inches of rain in 3 days from June 19-21 and then it did not rain again until August 10th.

[TacomaWx]

Picked up 0.08” of light rain/drizzle this morning. Has been cloudy all day and it’s 61 after a low of 52. Should be our coolest day in over 2 weeks. 

[MV_snow]

Mid 50s here under a solid stratus deck… was supposed to get to low 60s so this feels like the first underachiever in a while. Would be nice to get some substantial rain out of this period before we go back to ridging mid week but it doesn’t look too promising. Will have to hope that Phil’s zonal / whet June comes through.

[TacomaWx]

We’re running +5F MTD…and well below normal rainfall with just 0.68” this month. Looks like it’ll be a bit cooler coming up compared to recent times then warming up again. Much different than last year. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is even warmer than the 12Z run for next weekend.

Deep freeze for the whole southern half of the country. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is even warmer than the 12Z run for next weekend.

Forecast shows 71 on Saturday and 68 on Sunday for PDX. Will there be a big offshore push on Memorial Day?

[Cold Snap]

It’s coming.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

It’s coming.

Snow at 49 F?

[MossMan]

Had a high of 55! Currently 53! Good day to continue my backyard refresh. 

[Cold Snap]

25 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Snow at 49 F?

Must be an error or something. It’s not going to snow at 49 here lol.

[Omegaraptor]

38 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It’s coming.

those lapse rates must be insane

[TT-SEA]

18Z EPS and control run went back to the trough for Saturday (end of the run).

Decent chance the 00Z runs all flip back.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Forecast shows 71 on Saturday and 68 on Sunday for PDX. Will there be a big offshore push on Memorial Day?

No... that forecast indicates the uncertainty.   

[smerfylicious]

Drove down the coast of Oregon all the way to Santa Rosa a few days ago for a wedding. 

 

Currently in Klamath falls, going Us-97 the way home. This is one hell of a beautiful drive, never been on this side of Oregon

[Meatyorologist]

Ah! What glorious blessings!

Dense drizzle, water dripping off trees and roofs. 52F. What a marvelous turnaround from 24 hours ago.

Looks like KSEA, a bit too far to the south, has just now mixed up to 60F. Almost had a psub-psixty there.

[Omegaraptor]

Apparently the Caribbean island of Dominica has its own version of Lake Sandwich!

[Meatyorologist]

Lake Salmonella doesn't deserve to be made fun of. All lakes are beautiful, even if they are fouled by rancid swarms of writhing milfoil.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lake Salmonella doesn't deserve to be made fun of. All lakes are beautiful, even if they are fouled by rancid swarms of writhing milfoil.

It really is truly ugly... but we have to make the best of it.   We are very unlucky to have lakes in King County. 

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ah! What glorious blessings!

Dense drizzle, water dripping off trees and roofs. 52F. What a marvelous turnaround from 24 hours ago.

Looks like KSEA, a bit too far to the south, has just now mixed up to 60F. Almost had a psub-psixty there.

Been bone dry here all day.