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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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On 5/23/2023 at 8:22 PM, TT-SEA said:

The recent pattern sure has flipped the anomalies off the west coast.   And seems like the upcoming pattern will continue the same trend.   

@Phil I know you say this has a warm bias but this map was showing much colder than normal water water along the entire west coast just a couple weeks ago.  So apples to apples... it has warmed up significantly.  And the tropical tidbits site shows the same turn around.  

2023 (11).png

It is warm biased (and significantly so). CDAS/TT is better, don’t see any need to stray from it.

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That’s a *very* impressive STJ showing up across guidance now. The SW US just keeps winning this year.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s a *very* impressive STJ showing up across guidance now. The SW US just keeps winning this year.

EPS shows it too... rarely see it so far south even in the winter let alone going into summer.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-uv200_stream-5793600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

that wetness on/off the Carolina coast, wonder if it's hinting tropical development

Haven’t had any humid/tropical weather here so far in 2023. In fact, not even a single 70+ dewpoint reading to date! The last 4-5 weeks have been blissful, have spent so much time outdoors working on projects that I’d been putting off for years. Basically finished with everything now. 😆 

Though I’m not exactly a fan of how the low pass signal is establishing the ATL/IO sector. This type of regime is the epitome of perfection now, but would be brutal here in midsummer due to seasonal pattern/forcing dynamics changing. Seems like the p8 base state wants to leak into the E-Hem during MJO/CCKW transits.

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Looks like 68/48 for the day today for me. Also forgot to mention I managed two sub 60 highs on Sunday and Monday. It’s possible those could be the last sub 60 highs IMBY until fall unless a 7/3/2022 repeat happens.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Westerly momentum definitely propagating poleward on the 00z EPS. Note the +U anoms are quite substantial in the subtropics (5-20N) but less so near the equator (5N-5S).

Harbinger of an increasingly progressive pattern moving through June/July, and very likely a weak and/or suppressed 4CH. Amazing change from the last 2 years!

IMG_3687.pngIMG_3688.png 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Westerly momentum definitely propagating poleward on the 00z EPS. Note the +U anoms are quite substantial in the subtropics (5-20N) but less so near the equator (5N-5S).

Harbinger of an increasingly progressive pattern moving through June/July, and very likely a weak and/or suppressed 4CH. Amazing change from the last 2 years!

IMG_3687.pngIMG_3688.png 

Still thinking 2019ish?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also a circulatory state that will augment the +IOD and +AMO. Which is (not coincidentally) associated with east based +ENSO. Clean/filtered RMMs would depict a phase 8/1 type low pass with this setup, as opposed to the phase 6/7 as seen with modern +ENSO (like 2015 and 2018).

Doesn’t necessarily mean the CONUS is in for a cool summer, but the warm anomalies are likely to occur in the cooler/northern locations, as opposed to building in the scorching SW/southern US under a large 4CH.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still thinking 2019ish?

That’s one of the analogs, yeah. Hard to find many good ones especially post-1998, so at least in my case it’s just as much a dynamical projection as a statistical one.

I suspect a month from now (or even sooner perhaps) the conversation will have shifted to “super niño now unlikely” as people finally take note of the differences in the thermocline slope this year vs super niño years, and the fact the emergence is not thru modern conduits to a high amplitude event.

We’ll see what happens but I am of the opinion that models are wholly inadequate in the projection of ENSO.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s one of the analogs, yeah. Hard to find many good ones especially post-1998, so at least in my case it’s just as much a dynamical projection as a statistical one.

I suspect a month from now (or even sooner perhaps) the conversation will have shifted to “super niño now unlikely” as people finally take note of the differences in the thermocline slope this year vs super niño years, and the fact the emergence is not thru modern conduits to a high amplitude event.

We’ll see what happens but I am of the opinion that models are wholly inadequate in the projection of ENSO.

I just realized you remind me of the way sherlock holmes talks sometimes. Or at least how I imagine he does. I just listened to an audiobook of a sherlock holmes adaptation and I can hear him saying what you wrote above almost perfectly. Just add My Dear Watson, and say "yes" instead of "yeah". Anyways. Have a nice day!

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12z CMC is very impressive w/ the STJ. Check out the 850mb temp anomalies in the SW US.

Also shows how NW/Northern North America can be significantly warmer than average without a beastly 4CH.

This is especially true during the early and late portions of the warm season. 4CH is a more effective/important heat source in midsummer, so that period is least likely to produce widespread positive departures in the PNW/Northern US (under this type of system state).

IMG_3690.gifIMG_3691.gif

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41 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z CMC is very impressive w/ the STJ. Check out the 850mb temp anomalies in the SW US.

Also shows how NW/Northern North America can be significantly warmer than average without a beastly 4CH.

This is especially true during the early and late portions of the warm season. 4CH is a more effective/important heat source in midsummer, so that period is least likely to produce widespread positive departures in the PNW/Northern US (under this type of system state).

IMG_3690.gifIMG_3691.gif

GEM ensemble mean at day 10 agrees... really interesting pattern.  

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-5880000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sniffling is now background noise in class.

Grass seed capital of the world! The complete lack of rain to wash pollen down isn’t helping.

F81652F5-292F-4E5E-AA55-E3F3EF9E6134.jpeg.1a28254d4706781bfd4ec6e608183fb9.jpeg

I have long had dreams of editing these signs to read “Grass Pollen Capital of the World.”

grassseed2.thumb.JPG.0ad19f1282b260d74823b7604629068e.JPG

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Also a circulatory state that will augment the +IOD and +AMO. Which is (not coincidentally) associated with east based +ENSO. Clean/filtered RMMs would depict a phase 8/1 type low pass with this setup, as opposed to the phase 6/7 as seen with modern +ENSO (like 2015 and 2018).

Doesn’t necessarily mean the CONUS is in for a cool summer, but the warm anomalies are likely to occur in the cooler/northern locations, as opposed to building in the scorching SW/southern US under a large 4CH.

I'm definitely expecting a cooler summer here. Not necessarily wetter, just because so much of our precip during July/August comes from the monsoon season, which should be weaker with a smaller 4CH.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks like there could be some thunderstorms out towards the foothills and in the EPSL today.

77C33FC6-9FF6-4C01-B602-83E5CBA7F9EF.jpeg

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Clear and sunny in the seventies is perfect for me.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Tuesday and Wednesday look beautiful as well... but a little cooler.    The pattern shown on the ECMWF those days with the trough offshore is not conducive for marine layer so its basically sunny with highs around 70 in Seattle.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Looks bad for the fires

Definitely for Canada.   But not for California. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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55 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have long had dreams of editing these signs to read “Grass Pollen Capital of the World.”

grassseed2.thumb.JPG.0ad19f1282b260d74823b7604629068e.JPG

Love Linn county, right behind Douglas for the counties I feel most truly represent the authentic ethos of this state. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Love Linn county, right behind Douglas for the counties I feel most truly represent the authentic ethos of this state. 

Still need to really go to Douglas County. Haven’t really been there at all, just passed through.

Of course I can literally walk to Linn County. I can’t easily walk to Douglas County from here but I’m sure Tim’s wife could do it in about half an hour.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM ensemble mean at day 10 agrees... really interesting pattern.  

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-5880000.png

Amazingly good agreement on the 12Z ECMWF... for being 10 days out.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5880000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I recall models being posted here about a week ago predicted it to be in the 70s and 80s through much of Western Washington.  Luckily temps will  be cooler.  Everett is showing mid 60s starting Saturday through the whole rest of the week and next week.

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5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I recall models being posted here about a week ago predicted it to be in the 70s and 80s through much of Western Washington.  Luckily temps will  be cooler.  Everett is showing mid 60s starting Saturday through the whole rest of the week and next week.

Even when it's in the 80s across most of western WA... Everett can be in the 60s.  ;)

That being said... it does not look like any heat is on the horizon.     My forecast shows lots of 70s ahead.

Screenshot_20230525-123900_Google.jpg

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46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Love Linn county, right behind Douglas for the counties I feel most truly represent the authentic ethos of this state. 

There is actually a lot I liked about living in Oregon, but having a pretty severe grass pollen allergy plus the economic opportunity in my field in that state being heavily concentrated in the Willamette Valley ended up taking most of the lustre off Oregon for me.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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The 12Z EPS shows 850mb temps close to normal from Tuesday - Friday of next week and then starts expanding a warmer air mass to the west over the PNW.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1685016000-1685037600-1686312000-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There is actually a lot I liked about living in Oregon, but having a pretty severe grass pollen allergy plus the economic opportunity in my field in that state being heavily concentrated in the Willamette Valley ended up taking most of the lustre off Oregon for me.

I enjoyed living in Lynn County, though I think I would have rather lived in Benton County if I could have afforded it.  My wife and I both worked in Corvallis, and most of our friends were there, so we spent a lot of time on Hwy 20 or Hwy 34. 

The last couple of years we lived there, I had a fanny pack that I had to carry around in the spring (not really a fanny pack kinda guy) with all sorts of allergy meds, eye drops, tissues, etc.  and I was maxed out on steroids.   

 

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Our tomatoes are doing exceptionally well.   Usually they are just in survival mode in May and then start rapidly growing in June.  But they have at least tripled in size since we planted them 3.5 weeks ago as tiny plants.    And they are now starting to flower.  

20230525_130729.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There’s more pollen in the air here than water in the air at Phil’s place in August.

Fun fact: it is considered unusual for pollen counts to go over 400.

Except at the Eugene pollen counting station, where grass pollen averages around 400 during pollen season and peaks at 1,000 or so.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There’s more pollen in the air here than water in the air at Phil’s place in August.

I will say though, Georgia (really the southeast in general) can get pretty next level with the pollen.  I remember as a kid a gust of wind was blowing down the street, and it was knocking pollen out of the pines as it progressed.  Pretty soon it was a big wall of green dust.

It forms layers of green slime on the top of standing water, its impossible to keep your car clean...pretty crazy stuff.

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6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I will say though, Georgia (really the southeast in general) can get pretty next level with the pollen.  I remember as a kid a gust of wind was blowing down the street, and it was knocking pollen out of the pines as it progressed.  Pretty soon it was a big wall of green dust.

It forms layers of green slime on the top of standing water, its impossible to keep your car clean...pretty crazy stuff.

I have seen the same sorts of things happen with (Douglas) fir and hemlock pollen here. Sometimes when camping it has turned to camping with yellow dust everywhere. Thankfully tree pollen doesn’t bother me. It would suck if it did. Given how miserable grass pollen makes me, I have sympathy for those affected by tree pollen.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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