Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[SouthHillFrosty]

My lawn mower was struggling for a bit before I fixed it

 

edit: discard the end where I zoom in on my face 

Edited May 5, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really fun weather day. Numerous thunderstorms around early this morning, then heavy rain followed by dark skies and drizzle this afternoon. Always contrasts so well with the new greens to me. 

Also an interesting temperature profile. Midnight high of 56 followed by an afternoon low of 49 around 2pm. Have picked up over .60” rain so far today.

[Phishy Wx]

we've had 2 or 3 raindrops, that's about it

[MossMan]

Up to .03” on the day! 

[SunAndSnow]

Midnight high of 55°, .40” rain, 16 lightening strikes today. 

[TacomaWx]

Up to 0.06” so far today and 0.07” MTD. Not much rain in the last 10 days and the rainfall projected the next couple days isn’t exactly eye popping. 

[RentonHill]

Bull of the action just missing our place to the north as this cell sort of re-exploded over winthrop. Fun to watch on the cams though.

[ShawniganLake]

Partly sunny and 70 today.  Just had a storm roll past to my SW.  First nocturnal lightning I’ve seen here in at least a decade.  Haven’t seen any rain yet. 

[Skagit Weather]

Getting a decent thunderstorm rolling overhead where I am in Marblemount. Seeing a flash every couple minutes or so although I haven't seen any bolts yet.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Getting a decent thunderstorm rolling overhead where I am in Marblemount. Seeing a flash every couple minutes or so although I haven't seen any bolts yet.

That’s about like what we saw.  There were a lot of low clouds moving in late this afternoon.  Seemed like the activity was up above that. 

[AlTahoe]

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Found her LinkedIn page and it says she moved to Henderson NV in February and she is now a Grand Canyon helicopter tour pilot.    So maybe she is just not interested in tracking weather now.

I wonder if this is the winter that broke her? I have also been looking at properties in Summerlin after this winter. lol

[TacomaWx]

We’ve picked up 0.07” this morning…up to 0.16” MTD. Drizzle fest out there and 48 degrees. 

[Meatyorologist]

The extended range continues to look outright miserable.

[Cloud]

Yo..ewwwwww! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Drizzle and 49 this morning. Everything looks lush and green out there. Will try to soak this in as long as possible.

[Meatyorologist]

I imagine that heat next weekend will be watered down.

[Phil]

Really having a difficult time finding analog years (outside high uncertainty stuff in the 19th century) with in-situ +AMO/+IOD/-NPMM with developing Niño rooted to +SPMM.

Compilation of the closest matches rolled forward from April/May is “meh” but best I can do as far as predictive pools are concerned.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Really having a difficult time finding analog years (outside high uncertainty stuff in the 19th century) with in-situ +AMO/+IOD/-NPMM with developing Niño rooted to +SPMM.

Compilation of the closest matches rolled forward from April/May is “meh” but best I can do as far as predictive pools are concerned.

But running it from April does yield a positive correlations to observed 500mb patterns in 2023.

Here are means for April & May. Not perfect, but not bad either. I think May 2023 could match this decently.

[Phil]

Just now, Phil said:

But running it from April does yield a positive correlations to observed 500mb patterns in 2023.

Here are means for April & May. Not perfect, but not bad either. I think May 2023 could match this decently.

And June-August fits the summer idea I had in mind for the West, with warmth/higher heights focused in W-Canada (for what little it’s worth).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49.3˚F. Rained most of the night. No thunder or lightning here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

And June-August fits the summer idea I had in mind for the West, with warmth/higher heights focused in W-Canada (for what little it’s worth).

Why isn't 0 white?

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

And June-August fits the summer idea I had in mind for the West, with warmth/higher heights focused in W-Canada (for what little it’s worth).

But breaking it down by month, there are some distinct seasonal progressions.

- 500mb height anomalies steadily increase each month in AK/W-Canada, which could either reflect increasing confidence or actual pattern tendencies.

- June seems to be the warmest month with respect to climo in the PNW, which is also the case on most other seasonal-subseasonal analog pools I’ve attempted come up with.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

0.44" so far for this event.

[Anti Marine Layer]

48 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yo..ewwwwww! 

What happened to today and this weekend? 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Why isn't 0 white?

Can’t change the base period from 1991-2020 so would be skewed low if I didn’t tweak it. Definitely a shortcut with limited validity but better than the alternative.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting stuff Phil. Gives me some hope for summer.

[MossMan]

.33” so far on the day, .44” for the month. 
45 degrees. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting stuff Phil. Gives me some hope for summer.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m calling for a warmer than average summer in the PNW (more-so north than south), but doubtful it will be anything like the 500mb pattern of the last 2 years which was rooted in the 4CH/intermountain west.

W/NW Canada has an especially strong warm signal this summer, migrating poleward and intensifying each month. Meanwhile, the PNW warm signal weakens with time, as said warm anomaly migrates poleward.

So May is strongly favored to be warm in the PNW, June as well but less so overall. By July and August there’s not much to write home about south of the border. Would not shock me if one of those months runs a negative departure, especially in Oregon. 

Some questions about September/tail end of summer, when seasonal teleconnections begin to change, but that’s way too far out to worry about now.

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Don’t get me wrong, I’m calling for a warmer than average summer in the PNW (more-so north than south), but doubtful it will be anything like the 500mb pattern of the last 2 years which was rooted in the 4CH/intermountain west.

W/NW Canada has an especially strong warm signal this summer, migrating poleward and intensifying each month. Meanwhile, the PNW warm signal weakens with time, as said warm anomaly migrates poleward.

So May is strongly favored to be warm in the PNW, June as well but less so overall. By July and August there’s not much to write home about south of the border. Would not shock me if one of those months runs a negative departure, especially in Oregon. 

Some questions about September/tail end of summer, when seasonal teleconnections begin to change, but that’s way too far out to worry about now.

The GFS keeps showing what looks like a mid summer Monsoon setup over the Sierra from hour 260 onward. But it appears its a low pressure area coming up from Baja instead? Very odd. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

0.40" IMBY from this event. Biggest rain event, by far, since the Christmas rain. We REALLY need this, especially with the models showing a upcoming ridge. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Next weekend's heat dome looks mighty impressive on all models....

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Next weekend's heat dome looks mighty impressive on all models....

Triple digits should be easily achievable in May in our new warming climate (at least in inland areas).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Triple digits should be easily achievable in May in our new warming climate (at least in inland areas).

We’ve hit 100 down this way in May. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

0.40" IMBY from this event. Biggest rain event, by far, since the Christmas rain. We REALLY need this, especially with the models showing a upcoming ridge. 

One ridge does not cause a drought.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

One ridge does not cause a drought.

We are at a 15" (we only average 30" annually) deficit IMBY over the last year

[TacomaWx]

23 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We are at a 15" (we only average 30" annually) deficit IMBY over the last year

If I were you I’d totally ignore Mr.Marinelayer. I find the forum much more enjoyable just acting like he doesn’t exist. 

[TacomaWx]

Feels chilly out there…49 in Tacoma and 0.11” so far today. Working up in Kent and it’s raining a bit harder now. Definitely in vacation mode now leaving for Yellowstone at 4am tomorrow morning weather looks interesting at times over there. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

31 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We are at a 15" (we only average 30" annually) deficit IMBY over the last year

Downtown LA is 203% of normal with 28.25"

[MossMan]

Had a show 3 years ago today! That was a lovely event! 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Had a show 3 years ago today! That was a lovely event! 

Had a pretty good one down here that night too. In my lifetime it seems like may and September have always been the top months for thunderstorms…July and august as well occasionally.