Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. This is huge. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RIP VIDA BLUE

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has been snowing for the last couple hours across the upper John Day valley. Not super high elevation there (3-4K) so probably precip rates causing the snow level to surface. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not bad. 

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not bad. 

Been a pretty good stretch MTD north of the Santiam and south of the Rogue-Umpqua divide but pretty disappointing in between. Glad to see we’ll make up for it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Been a pretty good stretch MTD north of the Santiam and south of the Rogue-Umpqua divide but pretty disappointing in between. Glad to see we’ll make up for it.

So far this month has been about average on temps and precip here. 55/41 with 1.08" of precip. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54F and clear. No rain yet this month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

29 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

54F and clear. No rain yet this month.

That’s surprising considering EUG has had close to .20”

[Cascadia_Wx]

Models have really been all over the place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG hit 37 this morning. We fell to 38 with a few more KLOUDS.

[MossMan]

Water level is still quite high at Lake Goodwin. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gauge outside shows 0.40" made no sense the 0.00" on the digital one but hopefully it starts working again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models have really been all over the place.

They have. Shifting warmer again unfortunately, triggering new FB Messages from IBR Chris and BG Brian.

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Truly was much worse in the past... just a fact.  

yeah when no one lived here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gauge outside shows 0.40" made no sense the 0.00" on the digital one but hopefully it starts working again.

One on the roof must be clogged.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RIP VIDA BLUE

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

yeah when no one lived here

I grew up here in the 90s. Summers were really nice, we actually looked forward to them.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One on the roof must be clogged.

Still

a lot of ensemble spread

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models have really been all over the place.

Only one of them will be the most correct each day.

[Cold Snap]

Weather.com is showing 89 next Sunday IMBY. 5 degrees warmer than when I went to bed last night. Not going to be surprised at all if it starts showing 90+ for that day.

[Cold Snap]

Just realized SEA has a shot at the earliest 90+ day on record after having the latest 80+ day on record. Kind of hoping it doesn’t hit 90 because I would love to go this warm season without breaking some sort of heat record. I guess a daily record will probably happen at some point but I’m talking like an all time record being broken.

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Just realized SEA has a shot at the earliest 90+ day on record after having the latest 80+ day on record. Kind of hoping it doesn’t hit 90 because I would love to go this warm season without breaking some sort of heat record. I guess a daily record will probably happen at some point but I’m talking like an all time record being broken.

I know what you mean. Just going one summer without smashing some sort of long standing all time heat record would be nice. Probably a tall order.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EUG hit 37 this morning. We fell to 38 with a few more KLOUDS.

Really pretty clouds over Salem today!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know what you mean. Just going one summer without smashing some sort of long standing all time heat record would be nice. Probably a tall order.

Seriously. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro sure has turned fugly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh no, @MossMan, coming your way. 

[T-Town]

Azalea in full bloom. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Such a mess of ULL action around us starting later this week. Would be nice if the models settled on something besides high heights hanging over us for an eternity. Seems like there is still a lot of room for things to trend a little more variable in the coming days.

At face value the Euro shows Portland with 5 consecutive 80+ days (two of those hit 90) which is top tier for May.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models have really been all over the place.

All I saw was yesterday’s GFS/GEFS breaking down the pattern too soon.

The fundamentals have remained largely unchanged IMO. Significant deposition of AAM in tropics/poleward transfer of -U in NH, W-Hem MJO and transition from -NAO to +NAO all fits together perfectly.

Given the amplitude of this subseasonal event (and because it is in constructive interference with the emerging base state in the tropics and all internal components) it will evolve more slowly. Warm pattern in W-Canada/PNW likely has 3+ weeks to run. I don’t expect a change until at least sometime around Memorial Day.

Upon its completion the system state will be much more El Niño like, and such high amplitude +dAAMt events will be unlikely going forward (can’t get much higher than this, no dynamical space for it).

[Deweydog]

Pretty fun pattern. Heat, potential for SE flow, NHL playoffs, cold July upcoming…

[Phil]

Next cycle of WWBs already lined up for next week. Intervals have been perfect in both timing and amplitude w/ respect to evolution of the thermocline, to maximize room for low frequency coupling.

Still early, but damn, am very impressed with how this El Niño regime is attempting to assert itself early on. Especially since it is taking such a remarkably different route from all other 21st century events.

Like a time capsule from the 1950s-70s. Textbook evolution from that era, but essentially went extinct following the 1976 Pacific climate shift. Not even 1997/98 fit the pre-1976 EOF.

[Anti Marine Layer]

How active would this thread be if I could magically move everyone who posts here to Southern California? 

[TT-SEA]

EPS has not been volatile at all... very consistent with the warmth coming and not really showing much of a return to troughing.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS has not been volatile at all... very consistent with the warmth coming and not really showing much of a return to troughing.   

Canada's going to roast and toast because the climate change is heating up the polar regions faster than the tropical areas.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Next cycle of WWBs already lined up for next week. Intervals have been perfect in both timing and amplitude w/ respect to evolution of the thermocline, to maximize room for low frequency coupling.

Still early, but damn, am very impressed with how this El Niño regime is attempting to assert itself early on. Especially since it is taking such a remarkably different route from all other 21st century events.

Like a time capsule from the 1950s-70s. Textbook evolution from that era, but essentially went extinct following the 1976 Pacific climate shift. Not even 1997/98 fit the pre-1976 EOF.

Hopefully it’ll be like a 1968-69 type progression thru next year.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Next cycle of WWBs already lined up for next week. Intervals have been perfect in both timing and amplitude w/ respect to evolution of the thermocline, to maximize room for low frequency coupling.

Still early, but damn, am very impressed with how this El Niño regime is attempting to assert itself early on. Especially since it is taking such a remarkably different route from all other 21st century events.

Like a time capsule from the 1950s-70s. Textbook evolution from that era, but essentially went extinct following the 1976 Pacific climate shift. Not even 1997/98 fit the pre-1976 EOF.

Exciting stuff, Fil! Maybe we are reverting to a more troughing-friendly warm season regime for the PNW? Maybe one where it isn't necessarily favored, but not actively resisted either? Where normal warm season weather can happen again? Just a thought, perhaps a waning hope...

[DareDuck]

Beautiful day at Mt. Bachelor with 3-6” new up high. Looking forward to a little warmth and sunny weather. Just don’t want nonstop warmth from now until October like most of the last 10 years. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

66F and clouding up.

[Anti Marine Layer]

49 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Beautiful day at Mt. Bachelor with 3-6” new up high. Looking forward to a little warmth and sunny weather. Just don’t want nonstop warmth from now until October like most of the last 10 years. 

Are you skiing? 

[DareDuck]

21 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Are you skiing? 

Yes. I ski year round, which explains my desire to avoid unrelenting heat domes. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Spent the day looking at property out in Duvall 

[Cold Snap]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Spent the day looking at property out in Duvall 

Trying to get out of the swamp? I’d say Duvall is one of the better areas to be for snow that’s still not too far from Seattle.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Hurricane Ridge Lodge burned to the ground today. Renovations didn’t go well I guess. I’m waiting for the clouds to clear to see if I can see the fire from my house. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

64 degrees, mostly sunny and a light breeze here currently. Beautiful and pleasant out. Give me more afternoons like this. Sort of depressing to think that we are going into the furnace so soon.

[Jakewestsalem]

36 holes of golf today. Perfect weather with some beautiful clouds over the cascades and coast orange

[Eugene-5SW]

Never let it be said that I fail to give credit for the rare OVER-PERFORMING rain event here.

Surprise showers this afternoon totaled 0.30". Forecast was for a 20% chance with the main event not arriving until early tomorrow morning. Already close to the QPF for the whole event.

Very grateful for this blessing, especially with what looks to be a hot and dry spell coming up.

[RentonHill]

This little cell has been trying really hard for the last hour to grow big and strong

 

[GHweatherChris]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

This little cell has been trying really hard for the last hour to grow big and strong

 

It should have taken the blue pill.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, DareDuck said:

Yes. I ski year round, which explains my desire to avoid unrelenting heat domes. 

Sounds like fun. How far is it from Bend?

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Trying to get out of the swamp? I’d say Duvall is one of the better areas to be for snow that’s still not too far from Seattle.

Yea thinkin about it. This piece of land was around 400-500 ft also which isn’t bad.  
 

Does Duvall get dry slotted a lot in snowstorms or naw?