Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Cold Snap]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea thinkin about it. This piece of land was around 400-500 ft also which isn’t bad.  
 

Does Duvall get dry slotted a lot in snowstorms or naw?

That’s a pretty good elevation to live because there are a lot of times where I at 410 feet get an inch or two more than down in the main part of town. The down sloping from east winds during off shore flow snow events can eat up some of the snow but it doesn’t seem to be as bad as other places near the foothills. I remember during Feb 2021 even though a lot of high res models and Meteorologists were calling for only about 2-4 inches out this way and I remember waking up to 8 inches of powdery snow that morning. I think I had a storm total of 10 inches because it went until about 3pm that day. I’d say the east wind can definitely sometimes eat away a few inches but I don’t think it’s nearly as bad as down near Enumclaw and Covington. I remember during the snow event at the end of last November the east wind skunked places in the South sound near the foothills but it actually helped the precip stay snow and I ended up with 7 inches from that storm. It really just depends on the setup but I’d say Duvall is one of the least affected areas near the foothills when it comes to east winds.

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

That’s a pretty good elevation to live because there are a lot of times where I at 410 feet get an inch or two more than down in the main part of town. The down sloping from east winds during off shore flow snow events can eat up some of the snow but it doesn’t seem to be as bad as other places near the foothills. I remember during Feb 2021 even though a lot of high res models and Meteorologists were calling for only about 2-4 inches out this way and I remember waking up to 8 inches of powdery snow that morning. I think I had a storm total of 10 inches because it went until about 3pm that day. I’d say the east wind can definitely sometimes eat away a few inches but I don’t think it’s nearly as bad as down near Enumclaw and Covington. I remember during the snow event at the end of last November the east wind skunked places in the South sound near the foothills but it actually helped the precip stay snow and I ended up with 7 inches from that storm. It really just depends on the setup but I’d say Duvall is one of the least affected areas near the foothills when it comes to east winds.

That is good to know thanks man! Does Duvall get hit by the c-zone often or is more north? 

[Cold Snap]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That is good to know thanks man! Does Duvall get hit by the c-zone often or is more north? 

Duvall does get hit by the CZ quite often but when it’s in the form of snow it tends to be just too far to the north but then there’s times where it does form right over Duvall and then Duvall can get absolutely slammed by 1”+ per hour rates. Even had a 3” per hour snowfall rate in Jan 2020 that CZ was a beast!

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That is good to know thanks man! Does Duvall get hit by the c-zone often or is more north? 

Move here…You will not be disappointed!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Move here…You will not be disappointed!! 

I definitely would since I work remote but my fiancée  works at Harborview so that would be a commute lol

Edited May 8 by SouthHillFrosty

[RentonHill]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Move here…You will not be disappointed!! 

One of the few places I have a permanent alert/screen for….will do whatever it takes

[the_convergence_zone]

Had a nice afternoon at the Mariners game, it was mostly cloudy but caught a few sun breaks and the temperature was perfect. Then I got a bit of gardening in, everything took off while I was on the east coast last week including the weeds. Euphorbia and my lilac tree are in full bloom and a few of my rhododendrons will peak this week. Lupine is just starting and I have a couple California poppy blossoms which will become an orange carpet during the heat wave. 

Given the timing of the heatwave and the lack of a significant cooldown behind it, I’ll probably plant the summer vegetables this week although I might hold off on tomatoes until next week. Last year I planted on 5/28 and I probably could have waited even longer. 2021 was 5/15 and 2020 was 5/22. Soil temperatures will be plenty warm
 

 

[Omegaraptor]

GEM next Sunday shows Salem, Oregon making a run for hottest spot in the entirety of the Americas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

GEM next Sunday shows Salem, Oregon making a run for hottest spot in the entirety of the Americas.

Well it’s happened before…

[Phil]

9 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hopefully it’ll be like a 1968-69 type progression thru next year.

I mean, technically 1972/73 is on the table, so…. Though, so is 1957/58..and 1965/66.

One that isn’t on the table is 2015/16. Not even remotely the same type of El Niño.

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Exciting stuff, Fil! Maybe we are reverting to a more troughing-friendly warm season regime for the PNW? Maybe one where it isn't necessarily favored, but not actively resisted either? Where normal warm season weather can happen again? Just a thought, perhaps a waning hope...

One year doesn’t a trend make, but I firmly believe that F/M/A will flip significantly warmer during/following this El Niño, while a cooler shift occurs in J/A/S.

Not gonna say anything re: January. That one is a giant mystery to me.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I mean, technically 1972/73 is on the table, so…. Though, so is 1957/58..and 1965/66.

One that isn’t on the table is 2015/16. Not even remotely the same type of El Niño.

One year doesn’t a trend make, but I firmly believe that F/M/A will flip significantly warmer during/following this El Niño, while a cooler shift occurs in J/A/S.

Not gonna say anything re: January. That one is a giant mystery to me.  

15-16 wasn’t stellar, but it was great compared to 14-15. Yuck 

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

90 possible.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

15-16 wasn’t stellar, but it was great compared to 14-15. Yuck 

Well safe to say both 2015/16 and 2014/15 are off the table as analogs. At least IMO.

New NMME A/S/O projection released shows the difference in the SSTA forecast over the NPAC and NATL in 2023 vs same A/S/O forecast from 2015.

Verbatim this event is more east based, concurrent with the stout -NPMM/-PDO. While it’s likely the PDO/NPMM SSTA signature will attenuate/rise in association with El Niño circulation, it will not look like 2015 and may stay negative throughout the event. And the screaming +AMO also fits with the more east based structure of the niño early on.

So east based+cold phase niños are the ones that should be filling your analog pools. Which (unfortunately for me) precludes years like 2009/10, 2015/16, and probably 2002/03. All of those are off the table as cold season analogs.

To put it frankly, raging EPAC Niños are usually not friendly to anyone in the lower-48, except for Lake Tahoe and the rest of the SW US. Expect another monster winter down there in 2023/24.

[Phil]

Global SSTA anomaly w/ respect to 1981-2010 baseline, and SSTA relative to the global anomaly, respectively.

This thing is totally EPAC centered. So much so that the niño-modoki index is actually *negative* right now.

This just isn’t supposed to happen anymore. Haha.

[Ken in Wood Village]

It looks like we could be active today

[Blizzard777]

51 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

It looks like we could be active today

I’m currently in Pigeon Forge Tn.  
Ejoyed some energy dropping over me yesterday!  Loved it although it was puttering out. 30 mph winds, small hail and rain. Sky was dramatic though. 80* prior as this storm cell slipped over us.  Loved the fee!!  Just left a note in the east coast forum on best rout home.  Looks like I could get some possibilities in the mid west….just trying to figure out the bullseye.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Had a nice afternoon at the Mariners game, it was mostly cloudy but caught a few sun breaks and the temperature was perfect. Then I got a bit of gardening in, everything took off while I was on the east coast last week including the weeds. Euphorbia and my lilac tree are in full bloom and a few of my rhododendrons will peak this week. Lupine is just starting and I have a couple California poppy blossoms which will become an orange carpet during the heat wave. 

Given the timing of the heatwave and the lack of a significant cooldown behind it, I’ll probably plant the summer vegetables this week although I might hold off on tomatoes until next week. Last year I planted on 5/28 and I probably could have waited even longer. 2021 was 5/15 and 2020 was 5/22. Soil temperatures will be plenty warm
 

 

We planted the full garden on April 24th last year and April 29th this year and we are at least 500 feet higher than your area.

Last year we had a very chilly May of course and the garden still ended up doing great.   Everything slowly came up during May and was then poised to explode with the warm, humid rain in early June.   The tomatoes and cucumbers were definitely not happy in May but they hung in there.    I suspect we will be quite a bit farther ahead by the first of June this year.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We planted the full garden on April 24th last year and April 29th this year and we are at least 500 feet higher than your area.

Last year we had a very chilly May of course and the garden still ended up doing great.   Everything slowly came up during May and was then poised to explode with the warm, humid rain in early June.   The tomatoes and cucumbers were definitely not happy in May but they hung in there.    I suspect we will be quite a bit farther ahead by the first of June this year.

Wow that’s early! I move my summer veggies to gallon pots at the end of April and keep them in a cold frame until I feel they are ready to go. In 2021 I harvested a zucchini in May, I doubt this year will match that unless there is a second heat wave around Memorial Day.

Tomatoes are always a battle in this climate, if you have tricks for the big ones in particular I’d love to hear it. I feel like they hate the spring cold more than anything else. 

[T-Town]

Nice morning. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Wow that’s early! I move my summer veggies to gallon pots at the end of April and keep them in a cold frame until I feel they are ready to go. In 2021 I harvested a zucchini in May, I doubt this year will match that unless there is a second heat wave around Memorial Day.

Tomatoes are always a battle in this climate, if you have tricks for the big ones in particular I’d love to hear it. I feel like they hate the spring cold more than anything else. 

Zucchini in May is very impressive!   Our zucchini always does great but we have never had anything to pick that early.   

Our tomatoes always struggle until June but maybe that toughens them up because we always end up with hundreds of ripe ones by August and September.  But we stick to the mid-size varieties.   Its just not humid enough here to grow the big ones.

[TT-SEA]

One travel note from the weekend... the hotels in Pullman and Moscow were all booked months in advance for graduation weekend so we ended up down in Lewiston which is another 30 minutes past Pullman.   We had never been to Lewiston and did not expect that incredibly steep grade going down from the Palouse to the river.   That is like a mountain pass with runaway truck ramps and a 7% grade that seems to go on forever.   The view from the top overlooking the river and Lewiston is amazing.    The drive south of Pullman is just farmland and relatively flat with rolling hills and the last thing you expect is a mountain pass type grade all of a sudden.   

[MossMan]

Had a low of 40. Also had a few raindrops. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Blizzard777 said:

I’m currently in Pigeon Forge Tn.  
Ejoyed some energy dropping over me yesterday!  Loved it although it was puttering out. 30 mph winds, small hail and rain. Sky was dramatic though. 80* prior as this storm cell slipped over us.  Loved the fee!!  Just left a note in the east coast forum on best rout home.  Looks like I could get some possibilities in the mid west….just trying to figure out the bullseye.

lol pigeon forge.  we use to call that 'myrtle beach in the mountains' as a kid growing up in the carolinas

[MossMan]

My dog had frozen precip on her back one year ago today. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Nice morning. 

I look at pictures like these and often think of myself "There is no way in hell that is actually Tacoma"

[DareDuck]

13 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Sounds like fun. How far is it from Bend?

About 30 minutes. One of the big reasons Bend has grown so fast. 30 minutes away from skiing; kayaking, great hikes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

About 30 minutes. One of the big reasons Bend has grown so fast. 30 minutes away from skiing; kayaking, great hikes. 

I ve never been to bend in the winter. Hate it in the summer, what a tourist trap. It’s lovely in autumn though. 
 

My co worker lives in Sunriver and absolutely loves it. 

[Phishy Wx]

they're saying 90 here next Monday

[ChrisAmunRA]

54° here in Belltown Seattle that's 2° warmer than this time yesterday. Also noticing UV is way up it was at 9 yesterday afternoon not good for many. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

54° here in Belltown Seattle that's 2° warmer than this time yesterday. Also noticing UV is way up it was at 9 yesterday afternoon not good for many. 

If the sun is shining... the UV index will be high from May - August.   Its only based on the sun angle.   My sons always tell me about the UV index like its related to the temperature but that is meaningless. 

[ChrisAmunRA]

I feel this summer is gonna be more moderate than the last few but still end up slightly above average overall, the waters off our Coast being cooler than normal has me thinking this but I also feel when higher pressure starts to dominate waters off our Coast will begin to warm up on top of the El Nino which should enter peak strength around October I think we'll be 0.1-0.2c away from Strong El Nino. But back to summer kinda feeling a 2012 vibe hopefully we get many thunderstorms like that summer.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Low of 42.9°F IMBY this morning.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I feel this summer is gonna be more moderate than the last few but still end up slightly above average overall, the waters off our Coast being cooler than normal has me thinking this but I also feel when higher pressure starts to dominate waters off our Coast will begin to warm up on top of the El Nino which should enter peak strength around October I think we'll be 0.1-0.2c away from Strong El Nino. But back to summer kinda feeling a 2012 vibe hopefully we get many thunderstorms like that summer.

I agree... guessing this summer will be somewhat similar to 2019.    I also think the water off west coast will warm up significantly by the end of the month given the pattern coming up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 this morning, things have clouded up nicely now, with some rain bumping around the south valley. Shouldn't be much rain before summer pattern sets in. At least Methford got about 1/2" this morning. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a very pleasant and seasonable 64/49 day here yesterday. Partly to mostly clear most of the afternoon and evening.

Got on the chilly side overnight with clear skies. Low of 42. Coolest low in a few weeks.

[T-Town]

54 minutes ago, iFred said:

I look at pictures like these and often think of myself "There is no way in hell that is actually Tacoma"

Every home in Tacoma has a similar view. We just keep it quiet to keep housing costs down. Every photo I post is in violation of my T Town NDA. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

It’s been awhile since VUO reported any temps. Wonder what’s going on with that station. It’s a shame since it’s like a not-as-UHI polluted version of PDX. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our friend BGB Schmidt is pretty excited about the NBM calling for a low of 67 at PDX one week from today. Pretty much a lock now that PDX will SMASH their record max min for May. @Cascadia_Wx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Convective blessings. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this Nino gonna really blow it out. Probably going to be a one year wonder as such.

[AlTahoe]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our friend BGB Schmidt is pretty excited about the NBM calling for a low of 67 at PDX one week from today. Pretty much a lock now that PDX will SMASH their record max min for May. @Cascadia_Wx

That is wild if it verifies. Heatwave looks to mostly miss my area. We are currently running a -14F on high temps. 

[Slushy Inch]

Not much of a decrease in 850s after heatwave. An increase over previous runs.

[Phishy Wx]

it gunna be HOT

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not much of a decrease in 850s after heatwave. In increase over previous runs.

Oof

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That is wild if it verifies. Heatwave looks to mostly miss my area. We are currently running a -14F on high temps. 

Too much snow left to melt

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, this Nino gonna really blow it out. Probably going to be a one year wonder as such.

I guess rip the band-aid off with a dud then back to a stretch of nice winters maybe? Didn't even the 1950s have some crappy years?

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof

 

At least should stay out of the 90s at this point. But I don’t see a big marine push.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not much of a decrease in 850s after heatwave. An increase over previous runs.

Going to be a great year for my garden/orchard. My mason bees won't die this year like they did in last year's dreadful spring. 

[MossMan]

It’s coming.