Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Phil]

In the winter (and most of the time, generally) it’s (typically) the effect of Himalayan/East Asian mountain torque (EAMT) that is most important in the PNW region, and North America/NH, more broadly.

In fact, the majority of blocky, arctic-air delivering patterns in the PNW originate from dynamics in East-Asia/Eurasia, whether directly or indirectly. That’s always where I look first.

Though of course, everything is connected in the system, so the amalgamation of components (the MJO/in-situ ENSO/low frequency states/RWB modes, various effects on+from the stratosphere in both the tropics and pole(s), and MT/AAM deposition/removal and meridional transfer thru eddys/z-cells + tendency + timing, etc) all work together in a slew of of intricate, state-dependent ways, on wildly varying timescales. It’s a giant mess that even our best computer models struggle to capture on timescales beyond a week, and sometimes even beyond a few days.

And that will continue to be the case until we figure out a way to minimize the scale of parameterization of small scale physics. The problem is computing power more so than our knowledge of the atmosphere (though we are lacking there as well, in many areas).

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phil is going to get a heat wave too.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... warmth stays pretty well entrenched.  You can also see hints of that ULL moving westward early next week.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... warmth stays pretty well entrenched.  You can also see hints of that ULL moving westward early next week.

 

That closed low is weird. I'm not sure I buy it happening. 

[Omegaraptor]

61 at Corvallis, 63 at the ALBANY station Mesowest just added per most recent reading.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Phil is going to get a heat wave too.

Not this month! In fact I’m confident it won’t blowtorch here for at least the next 5 weeks. Less certain mid-June onwards, but that’s way out there.

Developing El Niño summers are usually (relatively) tolerable here, though recent years haven’t exactly followed that script. Still, I don’t think it’ll be too bad this year. If all goes perfectly, maybe the coolest summer since 2009? Not probable, but possible.

It’s those summers *following* moderate/strong El Niños that are the real killers, especially around solar maximum. I have a strong feeling 2024 is going to be the “bad one” this decade (out this way). I just know it, can feel it in my gut.

[LowerGarfield]

So I'm late in posting this but on Saturday my sister got quietly married on a farm about an hour south of Dallas and they had a nice canopy bought by the mother of the groom. She was going to give it to his sister for future parties on their rural acreage. But then a strong cell went through Ellis county, TX later that night and here's what it looked like the next morning. It was totally destroyed.

The ground to cloud lightning that night was incredible and right after we made it to our hotel we had very heavy rain and wind for quite some time. Like nothing we have even in Eastern WA.

[Eugene-5SW]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

I remember when we used to just call them "high pressure systems."

"Heat Dome" is one of those sciency-sounding terms that seem to have developed a kind of weird emotive resonance with the non-sciency pop culture crowd. Seems like it shows up in almost every weather and climate change story. "Polar Vortex" and "Atmospheric River" are a couple of others.

I've seen nature shows on TV that give the term "Atmospheric River" a sort of mystical woo-woo quasi-religious significance. I remember when we just called them "Pacific storms," but that was before we knew much about them, and much of the modern technical understanding hadn't been developed yet.

[LowerGarfield]

On 5/8/2023 at 7:16 AM, TT-SEA said:

One travel note from the weekend... the hotels in Pullman and Moscow were all booked months in advance for graduation weekend so we ended up down in Lewiston which is another 30 minutes past Pullman.   We had never been to Lewiston and did not expect that incredibly steep grade going down from the Palouse to the river.   That is like a mountain pass with runaway truck ramps and a 7% grade that seems to go on forever.   The view from the top overlooking the river and Lewiston is amazing.    The drive south of Pullman is just farmland and relatively flat with rolling hills and the last thing you expect is a mountain pass type grade all of a sudden.   

Lewiston Hill is a bit scary at first but on the second or third drive it's not too bad. Now, White Bird Hill south of Grangeville is a bit more intense.

Lewiston Hill is usually pretty well plowed in the winter. Which hotel did you stay this past weekend? I have stayed at the comfort inn in Lewiston when I moved to the region from W. WA and again before moving to my current location.

My wife and I had a date night kid free evening at the brand new Best Western in Clarkston a few months ago. That hotel is great but too close for us to really enjoy often.

Our favorite hotel in Moscow is the BW plus across from UI. Warm pool, fantastic breakfast, and perfect location. But of course it was full last weekend.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

I remember when we used to just call them "high pressure systems."

"Heat Dome" is one of those sciency-sounding terms that seem to have developed a kind of weird emotive resonance with the non-sciency pop culture crowd. Seems like it shows up in almost every weather and climate change story. "Polar Vortex" and "Atmospheric River" are a couple of others.

I've seen nature shows on TV that give the term "Atmospheric River" a sort of mystical woo-woo quasi-religious significance. I remember when we just called them "Pacific storms," but that was before we knew much about them, and much of the modern technical understanding hadn't been developed yet.

I blame TWC when they started naming Winter Storms. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Lewiston Hill is a bit scary at first but on the second or third drive it's not too bad. Now, White Bird Hill south of Grangeville is a bit more intense.

Lewiston Hill is usually pretty well plowed in the winter. Which hotel did you stay this past weekend? I have stayed at the comfort inn in Lewiston when I moved to the region from W. WA and yo my current location.

My wife and I had a date night kid free evening at the brand new Best Western in Clarkston a few months ago. That hotel is great but too close for us to really enjoy often.

Our favorite hotel in Moscow is the BW plus across from UI. Warm pool, fantastic breakfast, and perfect location. But of course it was full last weekend.

We actually stayed at Clearwater River Resort.  It was fine and relatively cheap.   But when we got there on Friday night they had Larry the Cable Guy performing and there was literally no parking anywhere.  

One other note... they have a paper mill on the river there that reminded me of the old Tacoma smell.   It was bad!  

Edited May 9 by TT-SEA

[Eugene-5SW]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I blame TWC when they started naming Winter Storms. 

Oh yeah, I bet you're right. The whole concept of sensationalizing the weather probably started with TWC.

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We actually stayed at Clearwater River Resort.  It was fine and relatively cheap.   But when we got there on Friday night they had Larry the Cable Guy performing and there was literally no parking anywhere.  

One other note... they have a processing plant on the river there that reminded me of the old Tacoma smell.   

It's the paper mill.

How was the buffet? I've never actually been in. The gas at that location on the reservation is the cheapest in the area but I usually don't go out that far.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Oh yeah, I bet you're right. The whole concept of sensationalizing the weather probably started with TWC.

"for profit' weather has always been the problem

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It's the paper mill.

How was the buffet? I've never actually been in. The gas at that location on the reservation is the cheapest in the area but I usually don't go out that far.

I looked up what it was and updated my post.

We ate at the restaurant on Sunday morning but that wasn't a buffet.  We were in Pullman most of the weekend and basically just slept at the hotel.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I blame TWC when they started naming Winter Storms. 

But only the ones that affect the East Coast. Because no place else matters.

[T-Town]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We actually stayed at Clearwater River Resort.  It was fine and relatively cheap.   But when we got there on Friday night they had Larry the Cable Guy performing and there was literally no parking anywhere.  

One other note... they have a paper mill on the river there that reminded me of the old Tacoma smell.   It was bad!  

See?  Reminded you of the OLD Tacoma smell. Modern Tacoma smells like a fresh mountain breeze wafting gently from a forest of tall pines. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

See?  Reminded you of the OLD Tacoma smell. Modern Tacoma smells like a fresh mountain breeze wafting gently from a forest of tall pines. 

Make Tacoma Great Again! Bring back the old Tacoma Aroma!

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Make Tacoma Great Again! Bring back the old Tacoma Aroma!

Yes!  Things were always better in the old days!!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z GFS is delaying the low. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

18z GFS is delaying the low. 

Not just delayed it, but has abandoned it. I'm not shocked at all, it was a weird setup. It is going to be TOASTY.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Without the low, 18z is flirting with 100s in Western WA for Mon, Tue, Wed. Too early for this , my cold crops are going to bolt. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

13 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Not just delayed it, but has abandoned it. I'm not shocked at all, it was a weird setup. It is going to be TOASTY.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

This low is gone on the 18z

[Slushy Inch]

29 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

18z GFS is delaying the low. 

Can’t trust this run for anything. One 18z it’s not gone.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Can’t trust this run for anything.

But we trust the 12z? That low wasn't in the 0z or 6z. Euro will be an interesting watch tonight

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

But we trust the 12z? That low wasn't in the 0z or 6z. Euro will be an interesting watch tonight

It’s GFS not Euro and it’s an 18z and it’s far out. Expect many changes.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Get ready for more of the snowing this week, record breaking heat next week events with climate change. 

[Phishy Wx]

pretty decent hail shower in progress

[TT-SEA]

46 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

But we trust the 12z? That low wasn't in the 0z or 6z. Euro will be an interesting watch tonight

The ECMWF, EPS, and the control run all showed it.    That carries more weight than the 18Z GFS.    The 00Z run will probably bring it back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful afternoon in Lebanon. 

[BLI snowman]

Thinking soil moisture will keep things capped around 95 for us. Could see a 97 or 98 evolving from this, I guess.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Thinking soil moisture will keep things capped around 95 for us. Could see a 97 or 98 evolving from this, I guess.

As I'm sure you know, 1939 is the benchmark for early season 95+ heatwaves in your area, hitting 96 on 5/13 at PDX. 

Next earliest temp over 95 is the 100 hit with the late May 1983 heatwave.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

"for profit' weather has always been the problem

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

[T-Town]

PNW green on blue. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

And yet Andrew thinks the ECMWF/EPS are complete garbage and never looks at those runs. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But only the ones that affect the East Coast. Because no place else matters.

Lol this entire winter was nothing but California named storms. Over and over and over again.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet Andrew thinks the ECMWF/EPS are complete garbage and never looks at those runs. 

Andrew fetishizes the monthly CFS. ’Nuff said.

[TT-SEA]

18Z EPS and control run only go through hour 144 but both clearly show westward moving disturbance.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nothing from Cliff on the heat wave coming up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Nothing from Cliff on the heat wave coming up.

It’s not going to get that warm. The streets are still too cool because they haven’t fully warmed up from winter yet.

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s not going to get that warm. The streets are still too cool because they haven’t fully warmed up from winter yet.

The sun will definitely not be sticking to the roads according to Cliff…Except for maybe the side streets. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS and control run only go through hour 144 but both clearly show westward moving disturbance.

Good. Should moderate surface temps some and provide potential boom boom fuel. 

[Cold Snap]

37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The sun will definitely not be sticking to the roads according to Cliff…Except for maybe the side streets. 

I wonder how many inches of sun accumulation we will get!

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I blame TWC when they started naming Winter Storms. 

LOL my brain autocorrected, and I read TWC as TWL and wondered, since when did @TigerWoodsLibido start naming winter storms and how would that trigger the media to start giving overly dramatic names to weather phenomena?

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

I wonder how many inches of sun accumulation we will get!

A slushy inch.

[Slushy Inch]

Thunderstorms start to bubble up in Oregon.