Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, iFred said:

Get a cold beer and a seat with a view. Few things on Earth that are more pleasurable than that experience.

As a guy that grew up in the Southeast, I agree. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM shows the ULL moving in faster... by Sunday afternoon down in Oregon.

GEM throws the low out into the water and then sends it back into the western WA coast. Kinda dig that solution. 

[Phishy Wx]

14 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Nothing from Cliff on the heat wave coming up.

he'll deny its even happening

[Phishy Wx]

15 hours ago, Phil said:

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

I get that, i'm talking about the companies like TWC, AccuWeather and the like.  I'm all for the models per-se 

[ShawniganLake]

Forest fire situation is pretty bad in Alberta. Over 1 million acres burned already and thousands of people evacuated.  Looks like this upcoming ridge will be centered over some of the driest areas. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Forest fire situation is pretty bad in Alberta. Over 1 million acres burned already and thousands of people evacuated.  Looks like this upcoming ridge will be centered over some of the driest areas. 

Were these climate fires caused by lightning or humans?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 hours ago, Phil said:

That sounds righteous on the surface but in reality it’s bullshit.

The reason ECMWF is far superior to NCEP is precisely because it is a for-profit organization. They have 3-4X the resources compared to the (publicly-funded) NCEP as a result.

And I believe their model(s) have added more value/saved more lives around the world than all other sources combined.

The ECMWF is a for-profit organization?

From their "about us" web page:

Quote

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 35 states.

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are

Plus it has a .int domain, like nato.int, itu.int, eu.int, icc-cpi.int, etc. and the IANA is pretty strict about handing out .int domains to only genuine, international, treaty-based organizations.

Perhaps you meant to say "independent organization not affiliated with any one national government?"

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Were these climate fires caused by lightning or humans?

About 50/50 but only about 1/4 of them have a determined cause at this point.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another decent long range GFS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We gonna have to wait a while, but nice weather will return in time. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

49 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm still not sold, but cautiously optimistic. A warm/humid thunderstorm at my house would be cool.  

Having grown up in Georgia, that's the one weather phenomena that I really miss having up here.  I DON'T miss the climate that causes those to be possible, so I guess I have to just suck it up. I would much rather not have to deal with my clothes get drenched with sweat from the simple act of....breathing. 

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Forest fire situation is pretty bad in Alberta. Over 1 million acres burned already and thousands of people evacuated.  Looks like this upcoming ridge will be centered over some of the driest areas. 

its just a matter of time for that smoke to get down here (at least in E WA) with a pattern change.  those fires will burn until October

[Omegaraptor]

Most westside stations from Eugene north running slightly above average MTD.

Down south, however…

MFR -3.7

RDD -8.2

SAC -6.7

PDX is actually warmer than RDD and SAC outright MTD!

[Phil]

13 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Might have to think about the hottest day with recorded precipitation. Record is 96F in August 2014. It's a long shot, but the odds are there.

Hate those days unless it’s a heavy thunderstorm. If it’s a sun-shower or drizzle from anvil blowoff you’re fucked.

In July 2011 we had a 105/79 afternoon and then a storm missed us but dropped some light rain for 45mins. Dewpoint spiked up to 87°F while temp dropped to 89°F and it felt a gazillion times worse than the 105°F. Will never forget that awfulness.  

[hawkstwelve]

I don't know if this has already been shared here or not but I thought it was pretty freaking cool...

Tornado on top of a mountain in Montana.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Typically forum interest wanes during the warm season. With the developing super Nino, that may carry over this year, unless the 72-73 analog comes to fruition. I'm good either way, a 57-58 redux at least gets the dud monkey off our backs, though I'm not sure we are as "overdue" as everyone thinks we are. A matter of perspective I suppose.

57-58 was wild down here.  1957-58 had 293" of snow at lake level. This year we had 315" 

April 58 was one of the biggest snow storms in Tahoe history. 75" at lake level. 

[Front Ranger]

12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gawddamn. Gonna be hard to function in that weather after such a temperate beginning to Spring. I'm not adjusted at all... 60F+ still feels warm to me

Not just temperate, it's been cool.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

41 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Having grown up in Georgia, that's the one weather phenomena that I really miss having up here.  I DON'T miss the climate that causes those to be possible, so I guess I have to just suck it up. I would much rather not have to deal with my clothes get drenched with sweat from the simple act of....breathing. 

I miss the summer storms. I do not miss baseball hail and tornados. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

High temps are much more impressive for the Puget Sound region on the 12z GFS than in W. Oregon. 

Looking at pivotal, these might not be the highs, but they are the highest temps I see for each day Saturday-Tuesday.

PDX: 88, 85, 88, 82

SEA: 78, 94, 92, 83

SLE: 84. 84. 85. 82

EUG: 80, 90, 85 85 

Weak sauce for SLE. Almost 100 years ago they reached 93 on 4/26.

[Eugene-5SW]

According to the GEFS, we're developing our usual summer perma-ridge with endless +5ºC to +10ºC anomalies a bit ahead of schedule:

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

This post was from 11 days ago now... ended up right on target.  Its May 10th and the warm spell is beginning.    I can't really take the credit though it was not guessing on my part.   The MJO and EPS have been excellent guides this spring with the timing of both the cold and warm periods.

Wow, I didn't even gloat this hard when I NAILED 2/22/23 and 9/7/19

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

This post was from 11 days ago now... ended up right on target.  Its May 10th and the warm spell is beginning.    I can't really take the credit though it was not guessing on my part.   The MJO and EPS have been excellent guides this spring with the timing of both the cold and warm periods.

NWS Seattle should hire you

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12z Euro following the GEM, actually looks further south with the closed low. Not ideal

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

According to the GEFS, we're developing our usual summer perma-ridge with endless +5ºC to +10ºC anomalies a bit ahead of schedule:

May 2018

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

12z Euro following the GEM, actually looks further south with the closed low. Not ideal

Thunderstorms still move into Oregon Sunday afternoon. Trough should keep spreading moisture north.

[MossMan]

Just epically perfect right now in Skykomish! 

[Slushy Inch]

Another run with a convective outbreak! Monday is looking fun. Precipitable water over an inch.

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow, I didn't even gloat this hard when I NAILED 2/22/23 and 9/7/19

You should have!

And again... I didn't just guess this on my own.   I followed the MJO and EPS.   Pretty straightforward progression.    We certainly have veered away from the spring progression last year now.   Probably means summer will be different too which is a good thing.  

[Deweydog]

On our way to #findkayla

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

On our way to #findkayla

PDX carpet!  

[TT-SEA]

Ridge is still holding strong at the end of the 12Z ECMWF run.

[Tyler Mode]

Had a nice night up at Mt. St. Helens despite the lack of aurora.  A lot of snow left at Johnston Ridge and the trees are just budding out there.  A frosty morning at Coldwater Lake which was just stunning with the fog.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Not just temperate, it's been cool.

lol, note the yellow dot in Northern Spokane County.  can't win for trying

[Phishy Wx]

52 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Another run with a convective outbreak! Monday is looking fun. Precipitable water over an inch.

let's hope none of those are dry strikes.  should be early enough in the season this doesn't matter (I hope)

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Not just temperate, it's been cool.

I’m in the yellow! So slightly above average for me!

[TT-SEA]

Warmer than normal for next 15 days per 12Z EPS.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

56 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Had a nice night up at Mt. St. Helens despite the lack of aurora.  A lot of snow left at Johnston Ridge and the trees are just budding out there.  A frosty morning at Coldwater Lake which was just stunning with the fog.

You going to try again tonight/tomorrow night? I'll be chasing

[the_convergence_zone]

Dew point of 70 with 2500 J/kg of CAPE. Are we Nebraska now? 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Dew point of 70 with 2500 J/kg of CAPE. Are we Nebraska now? 

My dog is going to think it’s the end of the world…Or the 4th of July…

[Hawksfan2008]

14 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Dew point of 70 with 2500 J/kg of CAPE. Are we Nebraska now? 

I cannot believe it’s the EURO showing this  

[Ken in Wood Village]

Nice thunderstorms building up. I'm facing East, I zoomed in a little.

[iFred]

52 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Dew point of 70 with 2500 J/kg of CAPE. Are we Nebraska now? 

I like this better than snow maps. Thank you climate change!

[TacomaWx]

Has been wonderful out here. 

[TacomaWx]

On 5/9/2023 at 11:20 AM, T-Town said:

Need a Yellowstone update from @TacomaWx. Hopefully he didn’t take my advice on petting the bison.

Haha nope everything is all good. Was in a car when i took that photo close up to the bison. Would never be out of the vehicle anywhere near one. 
 Leaving here on Saturday. Has been awesome so far…decent amount of snow that melted quickly the first 2 days and the last 2 days have been warmer and sunnier. 

[Meatyorologist]

What the Euro is showing would be one of the few ways we can get svr warned sfc based warm core convection west of the Cascades. Super rare, it happens once anywhere in this part of the region maybe every few years?

[JLightnin]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What the Euro is showing would be one of the few ways we can get svr warned sfc based warm core convection west of the Cascades. Super rare, it happens once anywhere in this part of the region maybe every few years?

May 2018 would like to have a word with you. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Has been wonderful out here. 

Love that first pic! We were there just about a week apart.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

GFS hinting at a second heatwave the following weekend. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Love that first pic! We were there just about a week apart.

Yeah I remember seeing that you were there. Was pretty awesome at both parks! 

[Meatyorologist]

27 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

May 2018 would like to have a word with you. 

*2017. 5/4/17. That was a doozy. Really fun storm that one.

May 2020 almost qualifies but those were completely midlevel shenanigans west of the pass.