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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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May perfection... sunny and 73.    Made time to mow the lawn today so I didn't have to do it in the heat.  Plus we will be on beautiful Lake Sammamish this weekend with many other people. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

*2017. 5/4/17. That was a doozy. Really fun storm that one.

May 2020 almost qualifies but those were completely midlevel shenanigans west of the pass.

I remember some fun rumblings from that one. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Forecast for my area only shows one day barely making it to 90.   Glad to see it getting watered down a little.   I am a big fan of consistent warmth but not extreme heat.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

What the Euro is showing would be one of the few ways we can get svr warned sfc based warm core convection west of the Cascades. Super rare, it happens once anywhere in this part of the region maybe every few years?

Didn’t the same thing happen in May 2017? I know it was a different setup then but weren’t quite a few of the thunderstorms with that severe?

2023 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3

Number of 90+ days - 1

Number of 95+ days - 0

 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

*2017. 5/4/17. That was a doozy. Really fun storm that one.

May 2020 almost qualifies but those were completely midlevel shenanigans west of the pass.

Yeah that was fun watching those cells develop and move up from the south. So many severe thunderstorm warnings. 

Can't wait until the next time we have a marginal risk for severe weather. Monday perhaps? Surprised no one is talking about it more. 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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CAPE isn't everything-- but we seldom get predicted amounts like this.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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9 hours ago, iFred said:

Get a cold beer and a seat with a view. Few things on Earth that are more pleasurable than that experience.

Thunderstorm + poison of your choice = Life changing experience.

Seriously. The initiated get it.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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For me it's weed. It makes the brights of the lightning pop out more and the bass of the thunder boom more deeply. @Phil @Phishy Wx @TigerWoodsLibido I feel like you guys have your own opinions on this.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

For me it's weed. It makes the brights of the lightning pop out more and the bass of the thunder boom more deeply. @Phil @Phishy Wx @TigerWoodsLibido I feel like you guys have your own opinions on this.

Weed just makes me fall asleep…I would miss the action. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Weed just makes me fall asleep…I would miss the action. 

This is a widely shared sentiment amongst my peers. I'm glad I don't fit that bill exactly.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For me it's weed. It makes the brights of the lightning pop out more and the bass of the thunder boom more deeply. @Phil @Phishy Wx @TigerWoodsLibido I feel like you guys have your own opinions on this.

It's strange but I associate any sort of extreme weather with Albertsons fried chicken. I think because it was always our go-to to stock up before a big storm-- I just associate the place with any sort of weather fun.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Marine push triggered a storm north of Beaverton OR!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You should have!

And again... I didn't just guess this on my own.   I followed the MJO and EPS.   Pretty straightforward progression.    We certainly have veered away from the spring progression last year now.   Probably means summer will be different too which is a good thing.  

Hey I called it in March. You were late to the party. 😉 

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35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a widely shared sentiment amongst my peers. I'm glad I don't fit that bill exactly.

Me too. Was mega-stoned during one of the big snowfalls in 2008, which made it all the more trippy, since I often had dreams about a big dump of cold dry powder snow falling in Portland, and there it was in real life.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey I called it in March. You were late to the party. 😉 

Yep... very true.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Me too. Was mega-stoned during one of the big snowfalls in 2008, which made it all the more trippy, since I often had dreams about a big dump of cold dry powder snow falling in Portland, and there it was in real life.

I love that. Back in February I went for a walk in the snow while stoned... In all honesty, it wasn't much different than while sober. In fact I often wished during several points of that walk that I were sober, since being high amplified how cold I felt.

Warm thunderstorms are a different story, though... This weekend's storm was incredible to view while high with my friends. Hell, I'd say above all else, what can make watching the weather so much more enjoyable are passionate and engaged companions. That can make all the difference no matter how you are doing or feeling. Often I find myself observing the weather alone. That's fine on it's own, but when I can see the same light flare in the eyes of others that I get all the time while looking at the sky, it's such a special feeling.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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KSEA NOTCHED A 70 THIS FINE MAY EVENING. ALL IS DOOMED.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep... very true.

I called it back in 1998 after looking at the MRF. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

9FAE3A61-EE46-466D-8F8D-57E7C6CB524F.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love that. Back in February I went for a walk in the snow while stoned... In all honesty, it wasn't much different than while sober. In fact I often wished during several points of that walk that I were sober, since being high amplified how cold I felt.

Warm thunderstorms are a different story, though... This weekend's storm was incredible to view while high with my friends. Hell, I'd say above all else, what can make watching the weather so much more enjoyable are passionate and engaged companions. That can make all the difference no matter how you are doing or feeling. Often I find myself observing the weather alone. That's fine on it's own, but when I can see the same light flare in the eyes of others that I get all the time while looking at the sky, it's such a special feeling.

This was me as a kid when I would observe out the window during a typhoon back in the Philippines, when that's the last thing you wanna do during a violent storm lol, but it's incredibly mesmerizing. Or when I would wave a flag in the air to see how the physics of the wind would blow it.

Nowadays when it snows at night, I love shining a flashlight straight up to watch billions of flakes fall from the black abyss of the sky. Like I'm at the bottom of the ocean and marine snow is falling around me. In real life I don't know anyone who has the same love and wonder for weather, nor does anyone have that same light flare in their eyes as I get when watching snow or heavy rain/thunder. 

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

9FAE3A61-EE46-466D-8F8D-57E7C6CB524F.jpeg

For someone who loves sitting on the deck overlooking Lake Entiat when it's still in the 90s in the evening... 87 does seems a bit low to be excessive. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

This was me as a kid when I would observe out the window during a typhoon back in the Philippines, when that's the last thing you wanna do during a violent storm lol, but it's incredibly mesmerizing. Or when I would wave a flag in the air to see how the physics of the wind would blow it.

Nowadays when it snows at night, I love shining a flashlight straight up to watch billions of flakes fall from the black abyss of the sky. Like I'm at the bottom of the ocean and marine snow is falling around me. In real life I don't know anyone who has the same love and wonder for weather, nor does anyone have that same light flare in their eyes as I get when watching snow or heavy rain/thunder. 

@iFred and others have proposed some meetups in the past during exceptional weather events.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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27 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

This was me as a kid when I would observe out the window during a typhoon back in the Philippines, when that's the last thing you wanna do during a violent storm lol, but it's incredibly mesmerizing. Or when I would wave a flag in the air to see how the physics of the wind would blow it.

Nowadays when it snows at night, I love shining a flashlight straight up to watch billions of flakes fall from the black abyss of the sky. Like I'm at the bottom of the ocean and marine snow is falling around me. In real life I don't know anyone who has the same love and wonder for weather, nor does anyone have that same light flare in their eyes as I get when watching snow or heavy rain/thunder. 

Dude. Streetlights in snowstorms are like crack. I never considered flashlights! I have something new to try... ;)

Honestly speaking, the best drug for a snowstorm is a warm cup of pour-over coffee, and an early morning walk around dawn in complete solitude. One of the more calming and gratifying experiences once can find in the grey of winter.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

If it was evapotransportation Sunday wouldn’t have like zero CAPE.

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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

Cliff would have let me enjoy my thunderstorm delusion.

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

9FAE3A61-EE46-466D-8F8D-57E7C6CB524F.jpeg

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

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Pretty neat observations on the 00z GFS for Portland.

11 AM to 8 PM Monday. PDX goes from 83 to 88, then rapid cooling at 5 PM down to 64. This looks like a big outflow signal in Clackamas County on the surface temp map from a complex of storms. Then it warms a bit around 8 PM. 3hr QPF map verifies big storms in Clackamas County.

floop-gfs-2023051100.sfct-imp.us_nw.gif

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather. :lol:

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

Yeah it’s for real lmao. The excessive heat watch is for temps in the mid 80s to low 90s. 😂

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2023 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3

Number of 90+ days - 1

Number of 95+ days - 0

 

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The high end of the heat has definitely been toned down, and thunderstorm chances are looking better for early next week. That said, the duration of sustained well above average warmth looks as impressive as ever. Good chance PDX breaks their record for consecutive days over 80 in May.

 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The high end of the heat has definitely been toned down, and thunderstorm chances are looking better for early next week. That said, the duration of sustained well above average warmth looks as impressive as ever. Good chance PDX breaks their record for consecutive days over 80 in May.

 

Yeah I don't know if PDX will hit 90 more than one day now. We may also see a notable increase in T-Storm chances by Sunday night or Monday.

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