Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[TT-SEA]

May perfection... sunny and 73.    Made time to mow the lawn today so I didn't have to do it in the heat.  Plus we will be on beautiful Lake Sammamish this weekend with many other people. 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

*2017. 5/4/17. That was a doozy. Really fun storm that one.

May 2020 almost qualifies but those were completely midlevel shenanigans west of the pass.

I remember some fun rumblings from that one. 

[Omegaraptor]

71 and raining in Corvallis!!!

[Tyler Mode]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You going to try again tonight/tomorrow night? I'll be chasing

Nah, I have work in the morning.  Unless it really flares, then I'll go somewhere close.

[TT-SEA]

Forecast for my area only shows one day barely making it to 90.   Glad to see it getting watered down a little.   I am a big fan of consistent warmth but not extreme heat.

[GHweatherChris]

Was only supposed to get up to 67 here today, got up to 73 which is the current temp, pretty sure it will be in the mid 90s here Sunday and Monday.

[FroYoBro]

Today really felt like a perfect weather day! Warm and sunny, but not too hot. Also lots of really pretty cloud formations over the mountains from convection firing up. Beautiful! 

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

What the Euro is showing would be one of the few ways we can get svr warned sfc based warm core convection west of the Cascades. Super rare, it happens once anywhere in this part of the region maybe every few years?

Didn’t the same thing happen in May 2017? I know it was a different setup then but weren’t quite a few of the thunderstorms with that severe?

[Eugene-5SW]

Fun convective looking sky but getting a bit late in the day for anything substantial to fire off.

[Jbolin]

58 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

*2017. 5/4/17. That was a doozy. Really fun storm that one.

May 2020 almost qualifies but those were completely midlevel shenanigans west of the pass.

Ty, thought it was 2018

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just wait until July and August.

With El Niño in full swing (and record warm sea surface temperatures), the effects of climate change will not be as muted as they have been the past few summers.

[Kolk1604]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

*2017. 5/4/17. That was a doozy. Really fun storm that one.

May 2020 almost qualifies but those were completely midlevel shenanigans west of the pass.

Yeah that was fun watching those cells develop and move up from the south. So many severe thunderstorm warnings. 

Can't wait until the next time we have a marginal risk for severe weather. Monday perhaps? Surprised no one is talking about it more. 

[Requiem]

CAPE isn't everything-- but we seldom get predicted amounts like this.

[Meatyorologist]

9 hours ago, iFred said:

Get a cold beer and a seat with a view. Few things on Earth that are more pleasurable than that experience.

Thunderstorm + poison of your choice = Life changing experience.

Seriously. The initiated get it.

[Meatyorologist]

For me it's weed. It makes the brights of the lightning pop out more and the bass of the thunder boom more deeply. @Phil @Phishy Wx @TigerWoodsLibido I feel like you guys have your own opinions on this.

[Doinko]

Raining and 72 degrees

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

For me it's weed. It makes the brights of the lightning pop out more and the bass of the thunder boom more deeply. @Phil @Phishy Wx @TigerWoodsLibido I feel like you guys have your own opinions on this.

Weed just makes me fall asleep…I would miss the action. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MossMan said:

Weed just makes me fall asleep…I would miss the action. 

This is a widely shared sentiment amongst my peers. I'm glad I don't fit that bill exactly.

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For me it's weed. It makes the brights of the lightning pop out more and the bass of the thunder boom more deeply. @Phil @Phishy Wx @TigerWoodsLibido I feel like you guys have your own opinions on this.

It's strange but I associate any sort of extreme weather with Albertsons fried chicken. I think because it was always our go-to to stock up before a big storm-- I just associate the place with any sort of weather fun.

[Doinko]

Raining pretty heavily, almost sounds like hail

[Ken in Wood Village]

If you look closely at the radar, you can see some lines coming from the North and another line coming from the SE. It looks like it coming together. 

[Meatyorologist]

Marine push triggered a storm north of Beaverton OR!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Marine push triggered a storm north of Beaverton OR!

Really nice surprise, going from almost a hot day to heavy rain 
 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I was on the phone when I noticed it and couldn't use this app but I zoomed in closer. See what I was talking about? It looks like a gust front. 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You should have!

And again... I didn't just guess this on my own.   I followed the MJO and EPS.   Pretty straightforward progression.    We certainly have veered away from the spring progression last year now.   Probably means summer will be different too which is a good thing.  

Hey I called it in March. You were late to the party.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a widely shared sentiment amongst my peers. I'm glad I don't fit that bill exactly.

Me too. Was mega-stoned during one of the big snowfalls in 2008, which made it all the more trippy, since I often had dreams about a big dump of cold dry powder snow falling in Portland, and there it was in real life.

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey I called it in March. You were late to the party.  

Yep... very true.

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Me too. Was mega-stoned during one of the big snowfalls in 2008, which made it all the more trippy, since I often had dreams about a big dump of cold dry powder snow falling in Portland, and there it was in real life.

I love that. Back in February I went for a walk in the snow while stoned... In all honesty, it wasn't much different than while sober. In fact I often wished during several points of that walk that I were sober, since being high amplified how cold I felt.

Warm thunderstorms are a different story, though... This weekend's storm was incredible to view while high with my friends. Hell, I'd say above all else, what can make watching the weather so much more enjoyable are passionate and engaged companions. That can make all the difference no matter how you are doing or feeling. Often I find myself observing the weather alone. That's fine on it's own, but when I can see the same light flare in the eyes of others that I get all the time while looking at the sky, it's such a special feeling.

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA NOTCHED A 70 THIS FINE MAY EVENING. ALL IS DOOMED.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep... very true.

I called it back in 1998 after looking at the MRF. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

76/44 day here. Overachieved temp wise like pretty much every other day this week. Some cool looking thunderheads over the Cascades.

[GobBluth]

Portland NWS lowered their criteria for excessive heat.

[MossMan]

The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

[HuskyMaestro]

49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love that. Back in February I went for a walk in the snow while stoned... In all honesty, it wasn't much different than while sober. In fact I often wished during several points of that walk that I were sober, since being high amplified how cold I felt.

Warm thunderstorms are a different story, though... This weekend's storm was incredible to view while high with my friends. Hell, I'd say above all else, what can make watching the weather so much more enjoyable are passionate and engaged companions. That can make all the difference no matter how you are doing or feeling. Often I find myself observing the weather alone. That's fine on it's own, but when I can see the same light flare in the eyes of others that I get all the time while looking at the sky, it's such a special feeling.

This was me as a kid when I would observe out the window during a typhoon back in the Philippines, when that's the last thing you wanna do during a violent storm lol, but it's incredibly mesmerizing. Or when I would wave a flag in the air to see how the physics of the wind would blow it.

Nowadays when it snows at night, I love shining a flashlight straight up to watch billions of flakes fall from the black abyss of the sky. Like I'm at the bottom of the ocean and marine snow is falling around me. In real life I don't know anyone who has the same love and wonder for weather, nor does anyone have that same light flare in their eyes as I get when watching snow or heavy rain/thunder. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

For someone who loves sitting on the deck overlooking Lake Entiat when it's still in the 90s in the evening... 87 does seems a bit low to be excessive. 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

This was me as a kid when I would observe out the window during a typhoon back in the Philippines, when that's the last thing you wanna do during a violent storm lol, but it's incredibly mesmerizing. Or when I would wave a flag in the air to see how the physics of the wind would blow it.

Nowadays when it snows at night, I love shining a flashlight straight up to watch billions of flakes fall from the black abyss of the sky. Like I'm at the bottom of the ocean and marine snow is falling around me. In real life I don't know anyone who has the same love and wonder for weather, nor does anyone have that same light flare in their eyes as I get when watching snow or heavy rain/thunder. 

@iFred and others have proposed some meetups in the past during exceptional weather events.

[Anti Marine Layer]

59 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Portland NWS lowered their criteria for excessive heat.

They lowered their criteria for global warming. 

[Meatyorologist]

27 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

This was me as a kid when I would observe out the window during a typhoon back in the Philippines, when that's the last thing you wanna do during a violent storm lol, but it's incredibly mesmerizing. Or when I would wave a flag in the air to see how the physics of the wind would blow it.

Nowadays when it snows at night, I love shining a flashlight straight up to watch billions of flakes fall from the black abyss of the sky. Like I'm at the bottom of the ocean and marine snow is falling around me. In real life I don't know anyone who has the same love and wonder for weather, nor does anyone have that same light flare in their eyes as I get when watching snow or heavy rain/thunder. 

Dude. Streetlights in snowstorms are like crack. I never considered flashlights! I have something new to try...

Honestly speaking, the best drug for a snowstorm is a warm cup of pour-over coffee, and an early morning walk around dawn in complete solitude. One of the more calming and gratifying experiences once can find in the grey of winter.

[iFred]

Depending on the storm situation Tuesday, I propose a Seattle area meet up from 6-9pm at Tapster in South Lake Union.

1011 Valley St, Seattle, WA 98109

[the_convergence_zone]

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

If it was evapotransportation Sunday wouldn’t have like zero CAPE.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

After giving this a close look, I think Monday is a typical elevated t-storm event that commonly occurs at the end of a heatwave. I think those SBCAPE values are just the model going nuts with surface evapotranspiration on Monday. The correct CAPE calculation should be done with a parcel above the mixed layer. I bet that would get you something like our usual 300 J/kg. And it's not like there will be any shear to organize the convection either. My main concern is all of this dry lighting after a heat wave...some of these could sit around smoldering until a wind event later in summer blows them up. 

 

Cliff would have let me enjoy my thunderstorm delusion.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, GobBluth said:

Portland NWS lowered their criteria for excessive heat.

Lowered to what?

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

The excessive heat watch seems a little excessive for my location. 
Anyway…69/50 on the day, currently 52. 

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather.

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty neat observations on the 00z GFS for Portland.

11 AM to 8 PM Monday. PDX goes from 83 to 88, then rapid cooling at 5 PM down to 64. This looks like a big outflow signal in Clackamas County on the surface temp map from a complex of storms. Then it warms a bit around 8 PM. 3hr QPF map verifies big storms in Clackamas County.

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Is that for real? Lmao. You guys would have excessive heat warnings every day if you had our summer weather.

Need an heat index of 106°F or greater just to meet heat advisory criteria here. And 110°F or greater for an excessive heat warning.

Yeah it’s for real lmao. The excessive heat watch is for temps in the mid 80s to low 90s.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS mean temp suggests PDX is 80 or above for 9-10 days. A really nice stretch of weather
but ohhh I really hope this isn't somehow the beginning of our dry season. Nah. Couldn't be.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The high end of the heat has definitely been toned down, and thunderstorm chances are looking better for early next week. That said, the duration of sustained well above average warmth looks as impressive as ever. Good chance PDX breaks their record for consecutive days over 80 in May.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The high end of the heat has definitely been toned down, and thunderstorm chances are looking better for early next week. That said, the duration of sustained well above average warmth looks as impressive as ever. Good chance PDX breaks their record for consecutive days over 80 in May.

 

Yeah I don't know if PDX will hit 90 more than one day now. We may also see a notable increase in T-Storm chances by Sunday night or Monday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 49 with a beautiful sunrise this morning.