Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

That 46-day anomaly arises almost entirely from the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks (ensemble spread is higher in longer ranges so mean is skewed by nearer term anomalies).

In fact, June is likely to be wetter than average for most if not all of the PNW region. Probably won’t see that pattern change reflected in guidance for a couple of weeks, though.

A wet June would be an amazing blessing. 

[TT-SEA]

Although June of 2009 and 2018 ended up quite a bit drier than normal in Seattle... and a little warmer than normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Although June of 2009 and 2018 ended up quite a bit drier than normal in Seattle... and a little warmer than normal.

I have not seen anyone predict a cool June?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have not seen anyone predict a cool June?

Dont think so.   I could envision a humid and wet pattern at times in June.   Maybe similar to the first week of June last year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dont think so.   I could envision a humid and wet pattern at times in June.   Maybe similar to the first week of June last year. 

June-August we can only hope for a moderate positive anomaly. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have not seen anyone predict a cool June?

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

Yes, I will validate your lived experience.

[Meatyorologist]

5 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

That makes since. Monsoon thunderstorms are usually elevated right?

It depends! Up here terrain blocks much of the best moisture, so there's almost no mechanism for sfc moisture advection from the monsoon to our south. And what little does make it beyond the crest may never touch the ground due to cold Pacific air hugging the surface like a dense, cold blanket, preventing that moisture from mixing to the surface... So it ends up gliding overhead no matter what.

There are ways to get it to the ground, like this upcoming weekend's pattern, but they're really janky and usually involve some really screwy meteorology, such as thermal downsloping and record heat, or upper level disturbances retrograding from North Dakoda to the Gulf of Alaska.

Deeply entrenched southerly flow can do it too, since we can tap into some really tropical Pacific air. But those systems are entirely stratoform by default and lack the dry air aloft you need to get instability. Occasionally though, you can get a huge bowling ball ULL to dig right offshore and acquire negative tilt right as the best moisture is skirting through, allowing for dry air from the SW to advect in above that moist Pacific air. 5/4/17 is a textbook example. Strong upstream ridging is an almost necessary precursor to those convective outbreaks, since you need to warm up those moist sfc parcels...Otherwise it's a marine layer soup.

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

Well 6 years isn’t nearly long enough to reach such conclusions. There are plenty of examples of ridgy Mays that didn’t go on to become ridgy summers.

For what little it’s worth, I highly doubt this summer will be a ridgefest (or a troughfest) up there. Tbh it looks pretty unremarkable to me after this +dAAMt/base state transition completes (sometime between Memorial Day and the first week of June).

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Phil said:

Well 6 years isn’t nearly long enough to reach such conclusions. There are plenty of examples of ridgy Mays that didn’t go on to become ridgy summers.

For what little it’s worth, I highly doubt this summer will be a ridgefest (or a troughfest) there. Tbh it looks pretty unremarkable to me after this +dAAMt/base state transition completes (sometime between Memorial Day and the first week of June).

I know, I was mostly kidding/being a pessimist. 

[Omegaraptor]

Hope everyone enjoyed our 3 weeks of spring this year.

[Phil]

Impressive how strong that -NPMM signature is, especially when compared to the global anomaly.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day.

[Phil]

EPS hinting at a significant W-Hem/W-IO MJO event during the first half of June. That’ll be interesting.

[GHweatherChris]

Pretty sure a lot of areas starting tomorrow through Monday will have high temps 4-6 degrees higher than currently modeled.

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS hinting at a significant W-Hem/W-IO MJO event during the first half of June. That’ll be interesting.

Interesting how?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Pretty sure a lot of areas starting tomorrow through Monday will have high temps 4-6 degrees higher than currently modeled.

This. Pretty sure we will over perform the model temps almost everywhere

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

48 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hope everyone enjoyed our 3 weeks of spring this year.

Followed up that awesome 1 week of fall that we got!!

[Front Ranger]

56 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I know, I was mostly kidding/being a pessimist. 

Common strategy on here is using "reverse psychology" on Mother Nature.

It works about 50% of the time.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Almost zero chance we have a cool anything after the nearly 6 months of troughs through fall/winter/spring. Especially after only our first few weeks of ridging. In my limited experience living here (6 years), once we start this ridge sh*t it doesn't end until mid September. I know @Phil has all of these science explanations way over my head, but I don't see any way we have any kind of moisture rich solution here until September. 

I’m worried it won’t rain again till September. Once we get in these patterns it is hard to break in our new climate. 

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Common strategy on here is using "reverse psychology" on Mother Nature.

It works about 50% of the time.

So it doesn't work at all!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sorry I’ve been missing a bunch. About 72F here in town. Best weather conditions on the planet IMO.

[MossMan]

Was going to try and get the boat started up and prepped for putting in the water tomorrow morning, but I spent this afternoon evicting mice and cleaning up their winter party instead. Was like a college dorm in there…The funk was terrible, That was fun. Even stared down one of them when I lifted up the seat to check the storage area…I think it wanted to fight me for a second but decided to leave peacefully. What a mess…I need a big shop. 

[TT-SEA]

My son came home from UW this evening to get the boat ready.    Going to be a busy weekend.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

So it doesn't work at all!

Slightly less effective than Sex Panther. 

[JLightnin]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Slightly less effective than Sex Panther. 

59% effective 

[T-Town]

We’ll see how green a week from now. 

[T-Town]

Sunset. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

We’ll see how green a week from now. 

My guess is it will still be green. It's May. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

There is still a pretty deep marine layer along the Southern Oregon coast. This requires an explanation. Where is the big ridge?

[NWbyNW]

I hope we make it through this first bit of hot weather without people being dumb and already starting fires.  I really am not looking forward to smoke season.   

[Hawksfan2008]

Looking more and more likely we get a widespread thunderstorm outbreak Monday. GEM and GFS both took a step toward the EURO. 

[SnowySeeker50]

High of 76 today.

[Phil]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting how?

Will begin the poleward transfer of +AAM deposited in the subtropics. Some kind of extended-jet/wet pattern (by June standards) seems increasingly likely. Not sure it’ll be all that chilly, though.

[Phil]

1957 still dominating both d6-10 & d8-14 CPC analog pools. And on dates almost 1 month apart!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 50 so far here after a 78/49 spread yesterday. The heat looks pretty toned down for the next several days compared to what was shown earlier this week. Still a lot of sustained warmth though. Hope we can get some thunderstorms out of this pattern at very least.

[Hawksfan2008]

Fun for all! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 50 so far here after a 78/49 spread yesterday. The heat looks pretty toned down for the next several days compared to what was shown earlier this week. Still a lot of sustained warmth though. Hope we can get some thunderstorms out of this pattern at very least.

My DM's from IBR Chris have cooled down dramatically.

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 50 this morning

[Hawksfan2008]

NAM range 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM range 

Cape Canaveral 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

Already up to 65 here this morning.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already up to 65 here this morning.  

You may live in the warmest location in W. Wa by your telling. Even when you have snow on the ground for days it never goes below freezing!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You may live in the warmest location in W. Wa by your telling. Even when you have snow on the ground for days it never goes below freezing!

It's 66 now at the station closest to my house.   Light east wind this morning.   It is what it is Andrew.   And we were below freezing all the time last December which is why our snow cover lasted for weeks.

[TT-SEA]

When there is offshore flow... my area can often be one of the warmest spots in western WA.   Happens quite frequently out here.    Also happens when there is weak onshore flow in the summer months when the marine air can't make it out this far.  Conversely... with a pattern like last Friday with stratiform rain and thick low clouds we were one of the coolest spots in western WA.

[the_convergence_zone]

Euro soundings looking good for Monday afternoon/evening. Likely to be poorly-organized popcorn, but could be fairly widespread convective activity. 

[TT-SEA]

@SilverFallsAndrew here is a good visual for you... the ECMWF temp map at 9 a.m. shows the warmest temps in the foothills.   Not sure how you have lived here this long and not know how it works with offshore flow. 

SEA is up to 63 now as well.

[MossMan]

53 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM range 

Guess I need to read up on CAPE numbers…Is 1000 good for rumbles? 

[fubario]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Guess I need to read up on CAPE numbers…Is 1000 good for rumbles? 

 definitely