Problem is he takes phase-2 in all +ENSO years, which includes WPAC-evolving events (2023 is very different from that).
The structure of both the ENSO and off-equatorial SSTA signatures should determine the analog pool, not just the tiny niño 3.4 box (otherwise you would treat years like 2014 and 2012 the same, when in reality the off-eq base states were diametrically opposed).
Would be nice if we could project seasonal weather/climate based on something as simple as niño 3.4 SSTAs. But in reality the variance in both low pass evolution and ET response(s) amongst niño years is almost as great as between niño and niña years.
Posted by hawkstwelve,
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