Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[FroYoBro]

Cell seems to be dying as it approaches Portland from the north. At least should get some rain still. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm over at Oaks Park but took a couple of pictures of that thunderstorm North of Portland. 

[T-Town]

Down to 78 here. Spent the day anticipating thunderstorms and got a marine push instead. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And the sun is back out now.   It's a steam bath out there.

“Steam bath” w/ a dewpoint of 60°F? Bruh that’s a desert. 

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Maybe more monsoon moisture in June

A lot more moisture in general, I think. Not just monsoonal but Pacific influence as well.

2 hours ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Big time lightning here on Snoqualmie ridge at the golf tourney. This photo from my golf cart. It screwed up my phone when taking  

Awesome catch!

2 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

How many Mississippi's between the flash and the boom?  I've had once instance of it being almost simultaneous while outside.  Not a good feeling.

Those are my favorite! Both the instantaneous ones and the ones where you can hear it slice through the air like a knife.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the MJO has basically ground to halt for at least a couple weeks after cruising through almost all the phases since late April.   Not sure what that means... but phase 7 tends to be warm from May-July.  

 

Wrong, the phase diagram doesn’t filter for the low frequency state, so it’s not telling you anything about the MJO.

But if you look carefully at VP200 hovmollers you’ll see it’s more of a phase 8/1 base state, not phase 7.

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Cell seems to be dying as it approaches Portland from the north. At least should get some rain still. 

It's still producing lightning. You can see the outflow on radar. It's really breezy here at Oaks Park 

[Timmy]

Scappoose looking east.  Nice show!

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

It's still producing lightning. You can see the outflow on radar. It's really breezy here at Oaks Park 

Starting to drizzle here, just saw another flash of lightning

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Cell seems to be dying as it approaches Portland from the north. At least should get some rain still. 

Looks like it's strengthening again

[Deweydog]

Interesting little gust front looking feature moving N/S through the metro area. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Temperature has dropped from 89 to 81 in the last 20 minutes with a southerly breeze

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Steam bath” w/ a dewpoint of 60°F? Bruh that’s a desert. 

A lot more moisture in general, I think. Not just monsoonal but Pacific influence as well.

Awesome catch!

Those are my favorite! Both the instantaneous ones and the ones where you can hear it slice through the air like a knife.

Wrong, the phase diagram doesn’t filter for the low frequency state, so it’s not telling you anything about the MJO.

But if you look carefully at VP200 hovmollers you’ll see it’s more of a phase 8/1 base state, not phase 7.

The "MJO forecast" doesn't tell us anything about the MJO.   Got it.   

I used that same diagram to track the late April warm spell and the current warm spell.  But I am also sure I don't understand all of the factors.    I am very simple Phil.   I can barely understand Randy's PNA charts... other than up is good and down is bad!

[Ken in Wood Village]

It's amazing how fast these showers are popping up. Look how Washington County almost has showers now.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The "MJO forecast" doesn't tell us anything about the MJO.   Got it.   

I used that same diagram to track the late April warm spell and the current warm spell.  But I am also sure I don't understand all of the factors.    I am very simple Phil.   I can barely understand Randy's PNA charts other than up is good and down is bad!

Again: That phase diagram doesn’t filter out the MJO from the amalgamation of factors that project onto VP/OLR fields (ERWs, ENSO/low frequency state(s), etc. It is an *unfiltered* phase diagram.

So no, it’s not always an accurate depiction of the MJO, and this is one such case. At the longer ranges in particular these problems exponentiate.

Does this make sense now?  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Again: That phase diagram doesn’t filter out the MJO from the amalgamation of factors that project onto VP/OLR fields (ERWs, ENSO/low frequency state(s), etc. It is an *unfiltered* phase diagram.

So no, it’s not always an accurate depiction of the MJO, and this is one such case. At the longer ranges in particular these problems exponentiate.

Does this make sense now?  

Not at all.   But I will take your word for it. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Wow, some really heavy rain in coming to Portland. Check out that outflow on the radar!!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not at all.   But I will take your word for it. 

FWIW there was very little interference from ERWs/base state back in April, so the MJO component stood out much better. The unfiltered phase diagrams picked it up easily.

This time it’s different. There was recently an ERW and the low frequency state is strengthening (developing El Niño). I would recommend utilizing VP200 hovmoller diagrams to track the MJO in what is increasingly becoming a sea of noise.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

FWIW there was little in the way of interference from ERWs/base state back in April, so the MJO component stood out much better. This time it’s different. I would recommend utilizing VP200 hovmoller diagrams to track the MJO in what is increasingly becoming a sea of noise.

Thanks... I sort of understand that part.    Link?

[Doinko]

Hearing some thunder now

[MWG]

Stormy out there

[BLI snowman]

Caught one!

 

[Tyler Mode]

One of the best thunderstorms since I've moved here in 2010.  .76" of rain 28 mph wind gust and epic lightning!  It was amazing!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

One of the best thunderstorms since I've moved here in 2010.  .76" of rain 28 mph wind gust and epic lightning!  It was amazing!

Wow... really jealous of that rainfall total.   The storms up here were basically dry.

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... really jealous of that rainfall total.   The storms up here were basically dry.

Yes!  Nice to get things soaked again.  Monthly total was just 1.05" before today.

[JLightnin]

Well, that fukkin' sucked. 

All that potential and the low dove even further south. 

Stupid punk azz bish 

[Phil]

Looks like we only have a few weeks of spring left.  Then comes 4+ months of swampass.

[SnowySeeker50]

Kind of getting impatient. Need something to sprout here that lasts long enough to make it past the terrain. 

[MV_snow]

Congrats, Portland! I did hear a rumble and it rained for about a half hour this afternoon. Not giving up hope yet but not looking great for up here.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks... I sort of understand that part.    Link?

You have access to hovmoller plots on weatherbell. For a variety of guidance (however, the ECMWF/EPS absolutely dominates both the GFS/GEFS and CMC/GEPS in this area).

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/hovmoller?d=-15_15__hovmoller_chi200_anom&pr=ecmwf-ensemble

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Caught one!

 

Nice one! Looks like a CTG branch off an intracloud stroke.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

Nice one! Looks like a CTG branch off an intracloud stroke.

Looks more like lightning to me.

[The Cats Meow]

So many blessings this week.

 

Next week we go back into the deep freezer.

 

Had hoped for a light show today.  Doesn't look like it's gonna quite materialize here.

 

Many more blessings and chances this summer me thinks.

[Slushy Inch]

21 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Kind of getting impatient. Need something to sprout here that lasts long enough to make it past the terrain. 

That line is cool looking keeps spreading north.

[SnowySeeker50]

Yup, also heard some rumbling couple miles east of me from it.

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

That line is cool looking keeps spreading north.

IMG_8190.MOV

 

[Slushy Inch]

Lightning in the north Cascades. Wrap a around moisture is late or over forecasted.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like a front is coming through from Kent, WA to about the Portland area. Looks like another line is forming behind the first one. 

[TT-SEA]

Kraken.  

[Omegaraptor]

Only 63 in Corvallis!!!

 

#islandofbliss

[MV_snow]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Kraken.  

Still not bad for a team that was supposed to win only 20 games! Hope they can get a top line goal scorer in the offseason.

[MossMan]

Not looking good for my area, my dog is happy about that. 

[MossMan]

Cool breeze blowing now. Down to 72 degrees. 

[Slushy Inch]

Some cool gust front just came up from the south and is triggering storms. My guess is marine push.

[SnowySeeker50]

Some more rumbling as it passes southeast and a rainbow to end it off.

[Slushy Inch]

Very breezy showers popping up everywhere 

[Cold Snap]

Looks like some storms are firing up near me! Looks like there is a decent one over carnation.

[Cold Snap]

Just heard a rumble of thunder!

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 67 degrees

[AlTahoe]

This post regarding the wild fire smoke in Canada is pretty extraordinary! Hopefully  the entire west coast can avoid a similar situation this summer/fall. 

Also the first mt bike trail in town melted out. Beautiful day for a ride. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

60/90 for the day IMBY.

[SnowySeeker50]

Hopefully the storms currently moving SW won't fall apart.

[Slushy Inch]

I like what I’m seeing. Saw a flash.