Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[westcoastexpat]

11 hours ago, Seattle said:

In isolation, the weather today was summer perfection. Too bad it's another record hot [fill in the statistic], after an endless decade of them.

Still had a fantastic time floating on Lake Washington with friends. The water was definitely chilly, but manageable with the strong afternoon sun to balance. Rainier & the Cascades were spectacular; it was honestly a little jarring to see the mountains so snow covered.

Couldn't agree more. The weather was glorious this weekend. I went for an alpine hike on Saturday and the frozen lake was a bit of a surprise!

I wouldn't want these anomalies in mid summer but for mid May it is much better than the usual. 

But I also have AC and beach access, I might feel differently if I lived inland away from the coast and without AC haha

[ShawniganLake]

I was over in the Vancouver area on the weekend.  Weather was nice. Caught a nice sunset on the ferry home last night.  Topped out at 91F imby yesterday. 
 

 

[SnowySeeker]

Low of 63 this morning

[Ken in Wood Village]

I think this is an incredible shot. I walked outside and saw this

[Skagit Weather]

10 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

What's SEA's record for consecutive 75 degree days in May? I know their record for 80+ is four which they're going to shatter but it looks like they'll also probably have 10 straight at least 75 which seems just as crazy.

Record looks to be 12 from 1995. No other year had more than 10, 75F days in May. And technically it was 13 days in a row because the streak continued for another day into June.

[Skagit Weather]

Yesterday I just barely touched 80F. That was only the second time in 13 years I've been at 80F or above in May. The other one was May 2, 2016 when I skyrocketed to 86F which is really impressive for here. I was shocked Seattle didn't hit 90F that day, but it looks like they were only 1 degree warmer than me.

[TacomaWx]

Interesting satellite imagery this morning. Can clearly see the upper level low rotating over the region…and also how the stratus covers almost the entire pacific ocean in the frame looks bizarre to me. 

[TT-SEA]

Water off the coast has been warming up quickly over the last 10 days...

[Phishy Wx]

weird pattern, retrograding low from SE to NW.  Heat waves on the west side before the east side.  it has been warm here, 85 yesterday, but nothing excessive, yet still 10-15 degrees above normal.  Hopefully some T-storms the next few days.  looks like we peak around 90 this coming saturday and then back into the 70s by the middle/end of next week

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Water off the coast has been warming up quickly over the last 10 days...

Lol, I keep telling you OISST runs a warm bias and still you keep posting it.

This is a more accurate picture, and on an older baseline too! The frigid subsurface will also cause re-emergence of that cold horseshoe SSTA configurstion when the pattern changes.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol, I keep telling you OISST runs a warm bias and still you keep posting it.

This is a more accurate picture, and on an older baseline too! The frigid subsurface will also cause re-emergence of that cold horseshoe SSTA configurstion when the pattern changes.

I didn't say the PDO was changing... just that water off the coast has warmed.   Here is the 7-day change using the site you referenced.    

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I didn't say the PDO was changing... just that water off the coast has warmed.   Here is the 7-day change using the site you referenced.    

Correct. My point is simply that OISST is biased warm everywhere, and substantially so. Might be best to stick w/ CDAS or HADISST for now.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct. My point is simply that OISST is biased warm everywhere, and substantially so. Might be best to stick w/ CDAS or HADISST for now.

Tells the same story.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Imagine that. A warm bias. Whodathunkit 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tells the same story.   

It doesn’t, though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

80F and mostly sunny this morning.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Watching the horizon blow up today. Time lapse underway

Fixed 

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Very glad I’m not working today. I don’t think I’m even going to have to leave Tacoma to see the action either. 

Getting ready for the final leg home! Looking forward to the cloud formations and any other eye candy that appears.  Take nothing for granted and enjoy what is given

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I think this is an incredible shot. I walked outside and saw this

Skies already putting on a show…love it! 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Interesting satellite imagery this morning. Can clearly see the upper level low rotating over the region…and also how the stratus covers almost the entire pacific ocean in the frame looks bizarre to me. 

That banded feature over WA is likely going to be the initial trigger in Washington as it moves over the Cascades later today. 

The latest HRRR and UW-WRF runs are a bit disappointing as they show the strongest storms staying over the mountains and running out of oomph before they make it to the I-5 corridor. We really need the storms to initiate directly over the metro area if we're going to get some good action in populated areas, I wonder if they models are correctly resolving what is going to happen there. The HRRR has a ton of moisture convergence ahead of the main "marine push" boundary which should, in theory, trigger some good stuff in the Chehalis area later today. 

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

It doesn’t, though.

Water off the west coast has warmed.   That is the only thing I said.   That has happened.   Tells the same story.   

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

That banded feature over WA is likely going to be the initial trigger in Washington as it moves over the Cascades later today. 

The latest HRRR and UW-WRF runs are a bit disappointing as they show the strongest storms staying over the mountains and running out of oomph before they make it to the I-5 corridor. We really need the storms to initiate directly over the metro area if we're going to get some good action in populated areas, I wonder if they models are correctly resolving what is going to happen there. The HRRR has a ton of moisture convergence ahead of the main "marine push" boundary which should, in theory, trigger some good stuff in the Chehalis area later today. 

I never even really focus on the details of the models for convection. It’s very rare that any one model handles it correctly. We had a really nice storm here on May 3rd and overall western WA wasn’t really ever the focus of activity with that event on the models. 

[iFred]

Tomorrow's Seattle meet up looks to be not happening as I've got to watch the kid and will be working from home.

I've got the first round of drinks if we meet up next Thursday in Seattle (if anyone is open to that).

[TT-SEA]

83 degrees at 9:25 am and first clouds appearing. 

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I never even really focus on the details of the models for convection. It’s very rare that any one model handles it correctly. We had a really nice storm here on May 3rd and overall western WA wasn’t really ever the focus of activity with that event on the models. 

I watched that in the very spot I am sitting right now!

[TT-SEA]

53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Imagine that. A warm bias. Whodathunkit 

Pretty warm out there.   Warmer than I expected. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty warm out there.   Warmer than I expected. 

74 here Timothy, -1 compared to yesterday…but less of a sea breeze here this morning. Wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up a degree or two warmer today while other areas ended up being a bit cooler. 

[Phishy Wx]

71

 

they're saying about a 30% chance of T-storms later.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 74.5 already.

[Seattle]

+4 at SEA right now. My east-facing home office is pretty miserable at the moment. How did I work in here last summer?? I guess I should go get the fan out...

[Meatyorologist]

So. The issue with taking time lapse photography with this camera... It has no intervalometer, and it doesn't accept any external ones. So time lapse photography has to be done manually.

The only option is to literally sit here on a towel for hours in the beating sun, without any shade, not moving at all to use the bathroom or refill water, constantly glancing back and forth between my timer and my phone and my camera, and taking the photos myself.

Because I am manually pressing the clicker, I need to be attentive at all times. I am running on a 30 second interval, so typing isn't all that easy.

My tripod is firm enough to stay in one place on its own, but flimsy enough so that minor bumps can adjust its placement, and the act of taking photos can adjust the camera too much for a clean shot. My solution is setting a 5 second timer on my camera so that the photo can take place after my jostling settles down. aone annoying thing about this though is that my camera automatically resets my photo shooting settings every time I take one, so after each shot I have to manually re-enable the pre-shoot timer.

I know I'm making it sound like a nightmare, and it kind of is, especially since I forgot sunscreen and something comfortable to sit on, but I have a routine down and it's working. And it's a beautiful day to watch the sky. Regardless, I already called out of work, so no going back now.

Getting humid and hot out there already.

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, iFred said:

Tomorrow's Seattle meet up looks to be not happening as I've got to watch the kid and will be working from home.

I've got the first round of drinks if we meet up next Thursday in Seattle (if anyone is open to that).

If I lived out there I’d be first one over.  

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Water off the west coast has warmed.   That is the only thing I said.   That has happened.   Tells the same story.   

The SSTA 7-day change tells that story, yes.

But the OISST maps don’t convey the true picture as well as CDAS/HADISST.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

So. The issue with taking time lapse photography with this camera... It has no intervalometer, and it doesn't accept any external ones. So time lapse photography has to be done manually.

The only option is to literally sit here on a towel for hours in the beating sun, without any shade, not moving at all to use the bathroom or refill water, constantly glancing back and forth between my timer and my phone and my camera, and taking the photos myself.

Because I am manually pressing the clicker, I need to be attentive at all times. I am running on a 30 second interval, so typing isn't all that easy.

My tripod is firm enough to stay in one place on its own, but flimsy enough so that minor bumps can adjust its placement, and the act of taking photos can adjust the camera too much for a clean shot. My solution is setting a 5 second timer on my camera so that the photo can take place after my jostling settles down. aone annoying thing about this though is that my camera automatically resets my photo shooting settings every time I take one, so after each shot I have to manually re-enable the pre-shoot timer.

I know I'm making it sound like a nightmare, and it kind of is, especially since I forgot sunscreen and something comfortable to sit on, but I have a routine down and it's working. And it's a beautiful day to watch the sky. Regardless, I already called out of work, so no going back now.

Getting humid and hot out there already.

That is some dedication right there! I really don’t think I could sit all day having to click a button every 30 seconds especially with ADHD. I would get distracted by something at some point lol.

[Slushy Inch]

Already some showers popping up in southwest Washington.

[Phil]

Holy pollen apocalypse. Literally clouds of yellow dust blowing off the white pines today. Mini pollen-nadoes forming at the corners of buildings too.  

So grateful I don’t have pollen allergies or I’d be in hell.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSTA 7-day change tells that story, yes.

But the OISST maps don’t convey the true picture as well as CDAS/HADISST.

Even ERSSTv5 offers a more accurate picture than OISST.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSTA 7-day change tells that story, yes.

But the OISST maps don’t convey the true picture as well as CDAS/HADISST.

My point was entirely on the recent change of course.   And was accurate.   Also... the WB SSTA map shows the exact same anomaly centers and tells the same story.   It's a relative.  You are in your micro debate mood today.   The only thing I said is that the water off the coast has warmed and that is not really debatable.  But here we are. 

[TT-SEA]

Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM show a cool down beginning in earnest on Sunday and some sort of troughing next week.   More typical May weather is in sight.  

[Jbolin]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Already some showers popping up in southwest Washington.

Those are remnants of a band of single cell storms that developed ENE of KPDT around 12-2 a.m. and have been waning as they moved west.