Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Slushy Inch]

Heat bomb #2 Potential convection in a setup like this.

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... holiday weekend coming into view.   Geez.

Seems like we can't even touch a ridge without breaking heat records now. And this doesn't seem to just be a PNW thing either. Same thing in Europe last summer.

[TacomaWx]

Get the feeling this persistent ridging will break down once we move into late June and July into something a bit more variable. Who knows though could be a total ridge fest for 4-5 months straight seems unlikely though. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... holiday weekend coming into view.   Geez.

500mb pattern suggests convection again!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks similar to the ECMWF later next week.

 

[Cloud]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I like to throw some in the oven tossed with olive oil, thyme, onion powder, and minced garlic.

I threw mine into the air fryer with a little bit of olive oil and salt. I especially love the flowery tip when they’re slightly burnt and crispy. This particular part has a very nice smell and taste to it when grilled this way. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z control run has the trough closer to the coast by day 10... this would be a great set up for convection.  

[Cloud]

Guess I wasn’t imagining things when I thought it was a little bit hazy yesterday looking towards the N and NE. Initially thought it was showers in the distance. The smoke finally broke the border and it’s May 17!  I’m suspect we’ll get many days of offshore flows this summer to get the smoke to come over here. 

[Phishy Wx]

more like a Convection Oven.  AMIRITE???!!!

[Cloud]

Not really news at this point or a should be a shock to anyone. Question now is how strong this Niño will be. Look like ~2C is the prediction. 
 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some hot and humid weather coming down here with the Memorial Day setup. Dry lightning possible in places, thus starting firestorms in May...

[NWbyNW]

59F and overcast at almost 1pm.  I don't think we will hit the projected 76F today in Everett.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

59F and overcast at almost 1pm.  I don't think we will hit the projected 76F today in Everett.

Wow... was just going to say that the smoke is keeping temperature in check here today as its only 79 degrees at almost 1 p.m.   But 59?   That is crazy.     

Also don't think there any clouds now anywhere over western WA.    Its just an elevated layer of smoke.  

[NWbyNW]

Welcome to the new Pacific Northwest May.  Record heat and we officially now have wildfire smoke from Canada dipping into the state.  Possibly the earliest in recorded history. The Canadian smoke models predicts most of Washington and Oregon will have a smoke layer by May 18th, before being blown away by onshore flow the following day.  Smoke is currently high and should not effect air quality. 

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

59F and overcast at almost 1pm.  I don't think we will hit the projected 76F today in Everett.

Side note... its 68 at KPAE so its definitely possible that Everett officially gets to 76.    Obviously a different story close to the water though.  

SEA is at 73 on the hour.  

[NWbyNW]

Temp has gone up to 60F!

 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Temp has gone up to 60F!

 

69 here! 

[Omegaraptor]

82 in CORVEGAS. +6 on yesterday.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Gonna be bad for people who don't like the heat

There's a 98% certainty that at least 1 of the next 5 years will be a record high for our planet.

That ain't right.

[Slushy Inch]

CFS for June.

 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

CFS for June.

 

Just for the record, in September 2019 the CFS was showing a warm/wet October.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just for the record, in September 2019 the CFS was showing a warm/wet October.

Yeah CFS isn’t great

[TacomaWx]

75 here…just got off work and it was noticeably cooler here compared to the jobsite further from the water. 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I keep going back to the feeling that Tonga and the crazy amount of water vapor still in the stratosphere is impacting the patterns and playing some sort of role in making our warm seasons even more extreme.  But maybe this summer will end up being very different than last year and I am wrong and its just a coincidence with the timing.   I just don't have any confidence in that right now given what is happening.    There was just absolutely no way last summer should have ended up being the hottest and driest ever during a 3rd year of a Nina.    And the start of this warm season is just about as crazy.  

Of course a couple people here will constantly mock me for thinking Tonga might be playing a role... but I am guessing even they are considering there might be some correlation.    We may never know the answer though because there are so many variables.

It wasn't...unless you exclude June?

[MossMan]

I wonder if Snowmizer has picked a new state yet! Hopefully it’s Montana since we lost Kayla, it was great seeing her posts from there. 

[Front Ranger]

Looking way smokier than earlier in Seattle.

[SnarkyGoblin]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I wonder if Snowmizer has picked a new state yet! Hopefully it’s Montana since we lost Kayla, it was great seeing her posts from there. 

What happened to Kayla?? She had great pics.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It wasn't...unless you exclude June?

True... I think it was the hottest July - September ever.   Also maybe the hottest astronomical summer ever.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

What happened to Kayla?? She had great pics.

I was wondering the same thing.   I did a search and found on LinkedIn where she is now a Grand Canyon helicopter tour pilot and it says she is based in Henderson NV.    So its possible she no longer lives in Bozeman and doesn't care to post about the weather now.   But that is pure speculation.    I was just glad to see she was OK.   

[TT-SEA]

81 in North Bend and here.

[Omegaraptor]

Is the 98F at Friday Harbor two days ago legit? I couldn't believe it when I saw it on Mesowest but Nowdata is displaying 98 as the high.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Saw this sweet thang on my way home. Wish it would come my way.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

69 here! 

Conflicting reports.

[LowerGarfield]

Can we get one of those Oregon and WA rainfall percentage of normal maps (for a month or two) from the recent weeks? Where can I find them?

[Phil]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I keep going back to the feeling that Tonga and the crazy amount of water vapor still in the stratosphere is impacting the patterns and playing some sort of role in making our warm seasons even more extreme.  But maybe this summer will end up being very different than last year and I am wrong and its just a coincidence with the timing.   I just don't have any confidence in that right now given what is happening.    There was just absolutely no way last summer should have ended up being the hottest and driest ever during a 3rd year of a Nina.    And the start of this warm season is just about as crazy.  

Of course a couple people here will constantly mock me for thinking Tonga might be playing a role... but I am guessing even they are considering there might be some correlation.    We may never know the answer though because there are so many variables.

Actually in hindsight (as always) it makes perfect sense why last summer turned out the way it did.

I do believe Tonga prolonged the Niña, but the reason the 4CH was such a beast was due to other factors related to said niña/out of phase strengthening of the background state. So indirectly it was responsible, I guess.

[Phil]

Taking a quick trip to Colorado Springs 5/27 - 5/31. Really looking forward to it, have never been.

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS looks similar to the ECMWF later next week.

 

The worm has definitely turned. 
 

sunny and 80 here. 

[Phil]

Basically everyone is dry except the SW US on the EPS. They’re gonna dominate for the rest of this year into next year.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

The worm has definitely turned. 
 

sunny and 80 here. 

Clock is ticking before it turns back, though.

[Tyler Mode]

12 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Can we get one of those Oregon and WA rainfall percentage of normal maps (for a month or two) from the recent weeks? Where can I find them?

https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/

[Phil]

Like half of the EPS members have literally zero precip here for the rest of the month.

Bad, bad sign for the summer if that is anywhere close to accurate.

[Blizzard777]

Commencement Bay today! Glacial flour making it down into the Sound.  Kinda cool on this smoky day 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Taking a quick trip to Colorado Springs 5/27 - 5/31. Really looking forward to it, have never been.

Hit up TAPAteria for lunch. And Garden of the Gods of course. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/

Bookmarked!! Thanks

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Clock is ticking before it turns back, though.

Worm turning is reserved for going from anomalously warm to anomalously cold or vice versa.    Not for normal weather.    I don't think we are going back to anomalously cold like we saw from February - April.   

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I was wondering the same thing.   I did a search and found on LinkedIn where she is now a Grand Canyon helicopter tour pilot and it says she is based in Henderson NV.    So its possible she no longer lives in Bozeman and doesn't care to post about the weather now.   But that is pure speculation.    I was just glad to see she was OK.   

Could be wrong but thought she mentioned something about it being a temporary thing.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is very different for next weekend.   Might be meaningful if it had EPS support.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Could be wrong but thought she mentioned something about it being a temporary thing.

Ahhh... that would make much more sense than packing up and leaving Bozeman.   Maybe she is just too busy for us.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Taking a quick trip to Colorado Springs 5/27 - 5/31. Really looking forward to it, have never been.

Great time of year to visit. Everything has greened up and bloomed, not too hot yet (usually), and frequent thunderstorms.

Check out the Cheyenne Mountain Zoo if you get a chance, it's pretty cool.

[the_convergence_zone]

77/58 out there right now. Because I've been in the PNW for almost a decade, I consider a dew point of 58 to be oppressively humid and would like it to go away.