Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[the_convergence_zone]

The flood watch surprised me as well, but their discussions have shown that they are rather bullish on convection and the HRRR has been showing isolated 1-2" rainfall amounts under the heaviest showers. 

I don't think today is the day, but there's eventually going to be a thunderstorm in the PNW that drops like 3" of rain in an hour directly over a densely populated area and causes complete chaos. 

[MossMan]

Still severe clear at my place in all directions. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still severe clear at my place in all directions. 

Total accumulation though? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feels like a massive bust in the offing. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

First rain drops in North Bend. Can feel it in the air. 

Air feels so humid and heavy now.    Listening for thunder but keep getting fooled by the distant sound of planes.    Seems to be forming right over us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty comical to see a flood watch up. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF parks a weak ULL over us next week.   Not much of a trough but enough for some marine layer days and showers.

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Feels like a massive bust in the offing. 

I'm not expecting anything to initiate over the WA Cascades until 2-3 PM. Probably between I-90 and US-2. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Feels like a massive bust in the offing. 

All time MAX MIN for May at PDX by jut a hair this morning, another 90 degree day pretty much a lock, and a thunderstorm bust for tonight. Couldn’t get much worse really.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

So. The issue with taking time lapse photography with this camera... It has no intervalometer, and it doesn't accept any external ones. So time lapse photography has to be done manually.

The only option is to literally sit here on a towel for hours in the beating sun, without any shade, not moving at all to use the bathroom or refill water, constantly glancing back and forth between my timer and my phone and my camera, and taking the photos myself.

Because I am manually pressing the clicker, I need to be attentive at all times. I am running on a 30 second interval, so typing isn't all that easy.

My tripod is firm enough to stay in one place on its own, but flimsy enough so that minor bumps can adjust its placement, and the act of taking photos can adjust the camera too much for a clean shot. My solution is setting a 5 second timer on my camera so that the photo can take place after my jostling settles down. aone annoying thing about this though is that my camera automatically resets my photo shooting settings every time I take one, so after each shot I have to manually re-enable the pre-shoot timer.

I know I'm making it sound like a nightmare, and it kind of is, especially since I forgot sunscreen and something comfortable to sit on, but I have a routine down and it's working. And it's a beautiful day to watch the sky. Regardless, I already called out of work, so no going back now.

Getting humid and hot out there already.

Wax on wax off exercise 

Good luck and enjoy ! 

Couple shots looking towards Rainer 

[TT-SEA]

85 with a dewpoint around 60 and dark clouds overhead... a MN feel today.  Sky seems to be getting much brighter to the south and east though. 

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, JLightnin said:

Total accumulation though? 

Nearing the one foot mark! 

[Hawksfan2008]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Air feels so humid and heavy now.    Listening for thunder but keep getting fooled by the distant sound of planes.    Seems to be forming right over us.

Yeah I was originally going to drive south but that would guarantee a massive outbreak right over my house Also looks like the models trended a touch north from a couple days ago. 

[NWbyNW]

Currently 76F here in Everett.  It is supposed to cloudy on up later in the day, and I hope that comes soon to cut off the impending heat.

This heat wave is stretching well into the week as well, beyond just today.  Looking at the forecast I see projected highs in the upper 70s and 80s for much of the Seattle region.  Not liking this early heat wave.  Hope it isn't a sign of things to come this summer and in future years.  

Everett.

[MossMan]

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/air-conditioning-homes-real-estate-western-washington/281-325c85b7-ef4f-47e1-8614-ce2d87003abb 

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nearing the one foot mark! 

F*** man, that's gotta be a record 

[Deweydog]

Classic westside heat advisory/flood watch combo.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

So. The issue with taking time lapse photography with this camera... It has no intervalometer, and it doesn't accept any external ones. So time lapse photography has to be done manually.

The only option is to literally sit here on a towel for hours in the beating sun, without any shade, not moving at all to use the bathroom or refill water, constantly glancing back and forth between my timer and my phone and my camera, and taking the photos myself.

Because I am manually pressing the clicker, I need to be attentive at all times. I am running on a 30 second interval, so typing isn't all that easy.

My tripod is firm enough to stay in one place on its own, but flimsy enough so that minor bumps can adjust its placement, and the act of taking photos can adjust the camera too much for a clean shot. My solution is setting a 5 second timer on my camera so that the photo can take place after my jostling settles down. aone annoying thing about this though is that my camera automatically resets my photo shooting settings every time I take one, so after each shot I have to manually re-enable the pre-shoot timer.

I know I'm making it sound like a nightmare, and it kind of is, especially since I forgot sunscreen and something comfortable to sit on, but I have a routine down and it's working. And it's a beautiful day to watch the sky. Regardless, I already called out of work, so no going back now.

Getting humid and hot out there already.

This is insane. Please buy a new camera. It is worth it

[Hawksfan2008]

Finally decided to purchase a nice weather station and set it up today. If you’ve been considering making the investment, do it! So cool to see all the data especially given the micro climates around here. 

[TT-SEA]

And the sun is back out now.   It's a steam bath out there.

[Chewbacca Defense]

79 at KBLI, 84 IMBY.  Its looking like all the action will be to the south today which is a real bummer, I w as kinda hoping we could get a game called due to lightning...not looking forward to playing soccer this afternoon in this heat.  I play GK and usually wear pants so I don't shred my knees/legs, though I might have to risk it tonight.

If we get lucky and something shows up, I'll be in a prime spot to watch the action, the fields are several miles from any hills, so I'll be able to see anything happening for miles around.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Third straight 80 burger IMBY. 83.5, 87.5, and now 80.1

Impressive. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Really hoping someone gets a mesoscale discussion today. Love the detail they go into. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/air-conditioning-homes-real-estate-western-washington/281-325c85b7-ef4f-47e1-8614-ce2d87003abb 

That was one $13k check I did NOT mind writing.  Very happy we got AC installed back in 2021.

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty comical to see a flood watch up. 

To be fair, it's for flash flooding - not your normal PNW flood watch.

[Ken in Wood Village]

There is a little conviction to my east. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here is the current lightning. Most of those storms are moving NE. I think the thunderstorms we will see will pop up really quick and we won't know about them until they are right on top of us.

[SunAndSnow]

20 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Finally decided to purchase a nice weather station and set it up today. If you’ve been considering making the investment, do it! So cool to see all the data especially given the micro climates around here. 

Which one did you get?

[Cold Snap]

12 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Here is the current lightning. Most of those storms are moving NE. I think the thunderstorms we will see will pop up really quick and we won't know about them until they are right on top of us.

Yeah that’s how I’m feeling as well. If you look at the radar loop those storms fired up out of nowhere within minutes.

[NWbyNW]

WILDFIRE SPARK-

I was hoping we'd make it out of this without some wildfires starting, but some have started. A handful of minor fires have started in the Olympic Mountains and far out in NE Washington.  A small one is contained along I-90, west of Cle Elum. 

No real new fires in Oregon, but several in British Columbia including some very big ones that are burning... If you remember last year, BC was the hot spot for wildfires last year, and Washington and Oregon got the brunt of their smoke.  The biggest blazes are all very far north, up in the district around Prince George.  Some new fires have sprouted up in areas closer to the Washington border, including one up the Miracle Valley, north of Mission.  It is currently listed as "out of control."  Will monitor. 

[LowerGarfield]

Just under 80....the cloud cover is keeping the high lower than it has been. Clouds are looking stormy to the south over towards the Blues.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I took these photos from a friend on Facebook. You can see the conviction East of Portland. He is in Vancouver at work. You can see showers forming now closer to the Portland Metro Area. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Yeah with surface-based convection you have to get up to the convective temperature (Tc) to see initiation. It's also ideal for initiation to hold off until the CAPE builds up sufficiently. The HRRR has peak CAPE over the Seattle area at 7 PM thanks to the moisture convergence from the marine push. On satellite now you can see cumulus bubbling over the Cascades, ideally these form some convection around 3 PM and then either that activity or the outflow boundaries drift over the metro area around 5 PM when CAPE is nearing the peak. Or the convection just fires directly on the sea breeze boundaries, which is possible but seems to be unlikely except maybe in Thurston County. 

[Hawksfan2008]

16 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

Which one did you get?

Tempest

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

That's a wild circulation. Flash flood watch makes sense when something fires up directly under the low and barely moves.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here is the current (probably about 5 to 10 minutes old) satellite and lightning together. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yeah with surface-based convection you have to get up to the convective temperature (Tc) to see initiation. It's also ideal for initiation to hold off until the CAPE builds up sufficiently. The HRRR has peak CAPE over the Seattle area at 7 PM thanks to the moisture convergence from the marine push. On satellite now you can see cumulus bubbling over the Cascades, ideally these form some convection around 3 PM and then either that activity or the outflow boundaries drift over the metro area around 5 PM when CAPE is nearing the peak. Or the convection just fires directly on the sea breeze boundaries, which is possible but seems to be unlikely except maybe in Thurston County. 

Most of that is low value SBCAPE (less than 1000j/Kg), the better forcing and MUCAPE, along with (LI's) -3-5C⁰ are above roughly 750-800mb.

Very dynamic threat for this part of the country this aft/eve. 

[Cold Snap]

86.1 now. Some clouds are starting to move in as well.

[RentonHill]

No idea what Supercell Composite is but all I know is that it 1) sounds sick 2) shows something that is greater than zero and 3) over my house. Boinggg

 

[MossMan]

When heading back to work a bit ago I noticed some clouds bubbling up to the east behind my area, and also west out around the Olympics.