Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh... that would make much more sense than packing up and leaving Bozeman.   Maybe she is just too busy for us.

How can anyone be too busy for us? Where are people’s priorities these days…Sheesh! 

[Omegaraptor]

And PDX rolls into the hourly.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

500mb pattern suggests convection again!

Gotta get some lightning to touch off those fires, after all.

[Eugene-5SW]

Just another typical +20ºF departure day here. Ho hum.

[TT-SEA]

North Bend checking in at 83 with a dewpoint of 62.    I thought that dewpoint seemed high but the station near my house is exactly the same right now at 83/62.

[TT-SEA]

On the visible satellite you can see the smoke extends solidly from Seattle to Minnesota and down to Missouri now.

[TT-SEA]

On this image you can see the source of all the smoke.

[SunAndSnow]

91/56 so far today. I didn’t want to have to water in May but looks like I need to. The thunderstorms to the east look awesome!

[Phishy Wx]

I've wondered if/how a smoke layer can decrease convection?

I know huge fires can create their own Pyrocumulus but I'm talking away from the actual  fires like in those satellite photos tim posted

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is looking East Northeast. I doubt it will develop into any. I love how there isn't any other clouds around and the blue sky backdrop in the background. As I'm writing this, you can tell it's building really fast. 

[Phishy Wx]

good grief

 

 

[T-Town]

Rhodies have peaked. The ones in the backyard really bloomed this year. The one in the front barely had any flowers. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Worm turning is reserved for going from anomalously warm to anomalously cold or vice versa.    Not for normal weather.    I don't think we are going back to anomalously cold like we saw from February - April.   

Yeah pattern doesn’t look like Feb-Apr. Much closer to average temperature wise, and probably wetter than average too. A lot more zonal.

But exactly when it sets in is uncertain/debatable.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah pattern doesn’t look like Feb-Apr. Much closer to average temperature wise, and probably wetter than average too. A lot more zonal.

But exactly when it sets in is uncertain/debatable.

Probably would set the stage for a huge green out and would save the grass if it persisted longer than a couple weeks.

Also keep in mind, a stable jet presence is a bit more unusual this time of year. Would mean cooler than normal by default.

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Taking a quick trip to Colorado Springs 5/27 - 5/31. Really looking forward to it, have never been.

Love that area. Garden of the Gods is nice and you should check out (but not actually pay for) the Broadmoor.

[BLI snowman]

Arctic smoke front is hung up at Toledo!

[Cascadia_Wx]

5th 90 of the month at PDX with possibly more on the way later next week. Previous record was three. Just dumb.

Would be nice if we could get some decent weather between May and September without absolutely roasting/smashing multiple all time heat records any time an even slightly robust ridgy pattern develops.

Edited May 18 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile put up an 89/57 day here after an 83/57 yesterday. Some neat looking thunderheads over the Cascades this afternoon at least.

[Phishy Wx]

Welcome to Magust

[Deweydog]

Turbulence over the Target parking lot!

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Turbulence over the Target parking lot!

Good thing it's not pyrocumulus

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Turbulence over the Target parking lot!

 

Hazel Dell?

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

On the visible satellite you can see the smoke extends solidly from Seattle to Minnesota and down to Missouri now.

Looks like nice thunderstorms over Nebraska too.

[jcmcgaffey]

This weather will come back around. My guess is later June/July we will get back to cooler and wetter than normal. I have a feeling it will be a cold and rainy 4th compared to normal.

[jcmcgaffey]

These things ebb and flow it just takes longer these days in between ebbs and flows. It was just a month ago people were taking about the cold and rain possibly continuing through summer and comparing to 2011. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

These things ebb and flow it just takes longer these days in between ebbs and flows. It was just a month ago people were taking about the cold and rain possibly continuing through summer and comparing to 2011. 

We might have lost the 2011 comparison at this point. 

[Deweydog]

44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Hazel Dell?

Bringo!

[jcmcgaffey]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We might have lost the 2011 comparison at this point. 

Ya for sure. My point was more towards the reactions to the weather back then when it was cold and rainy for quite a while. Obviously the warmth has been winning the battle overall but I think there is hope in the fact that things will flip back from this current stretch of warm and dry weather just like it did from the cold and rainy weather. At least in the Puget sound region we have managed to keep up with average rainfall and the soil is still saturated. 

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Arctic smoke front is hung up at Toledo!

The one time I wish it would have stalled at the Canadian border. 

[GHweatherChris]

This is the earliest smoke intrusion I can remember out this way, significant orange filter of the sun this afternoon and a couple moments of campfire smell and there are definitely no fires anywhere near our locale today.

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've wondered if/how a smoke layer can decrease convection?

I know huge fires can create their own Pyrocumulus but I'm talking away from the actual  fires like in those satellite photos tim posted

 

One might think that the answer is due to reduced sunlight reaching the ground. I think that answer is part of the picture, but the real answer is a little less intuitive.

In terms of how smoke affects temperatures and mixing beneath the boundary layer, from what I have observed, there really isn't much of an effect. This is particularly true if the smoke is surface based. A good majority of sunlight still reaches the ground; and if you're in May-July, you can afford to lose a little energy while still mixing through. Hell, back in August of 2021, Redding managed to push 120F amidst dense surface smoke. Fuckking yikes, no thank you.

What I think prevents convection isn't a lack of surface heating, but rather the absorption of energy by the smoke in the air aloft. This warms the boundary layer and strengthens capping; inhibiting convection.

You could imagine how this would play out... A forest fire blows up somewhere in the OR Cascades in late July. Smoke drifts NE under retreating high pressure, eventually settling and pooling in the Columbia Basin. The following morning, a convective environment exists, accompanied by rapid height falls and rapid cooling in the upper levels. Come sunlight, thermal towers beneath the boundary layer mix the smoke which settled near the surface overnight. The settling of smoke actually ensures that air temperatures at the surface would remain the same, assuming there are no high altitude smoke layers. Remember, beneath the boundary layer it's a fairly closed system, meaning that even the energy that is stolen from the ground by particles of smoke is still deposited into the air mixing to the ground.

Thermal towers over time deposit more and more of the smoke contained with them into the cap as their overshooting tops lose their buoyancy. This cumulating smoke content within the cap absorbs sunlight even more, which warms the cap over time. From there it's a game of cat and mouse, as the mixed layer warms over time, and the cap reciprocates. Thus convection is prevented. But this effect is probably subtle most of the time.

[TacomaWx]

Just narrowly avoided 80 today…79/55. Still has been a pretty warm last week or so. 

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah pattern doesn’t look like Feb-Apr. Much closer to average temperature wise, and probably wetter than average too. A lot more zonal.

But exactly when it sets in is uncertain/debatable.

Pretty good chance we will finish May well below average for our 7th straight month of well below average temps. Pretty incredible streak down this way. 

[ShawniganLake]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Clock is ticking before it turns back, though.

Maybe so.  I doubt it’ll be a scorching summer but probably still a warm one. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Ya for sure. My point was more towards the reactions to the weather back then when it was cold and rainy for quite a while. Obviously the warmth has been winning the battle overall but I think there is hope in the fact that things will flip back from this current stretch of warm and dry weather just like it did from the cold and rainy weather. At least in the Puget sound region we have managed to keep up with average rainfall and the soil is still saturated. 

Heat miser pattern definitely blowing its load early this year.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Pretty good chance we will finish May well below average for our 7th straight month of well below average temps. Pretty incredible streak down this way. 

I bet that theme continues into June/July at least.

[ShawniganLake]

53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The one time I wish it would have stalled at the Canadian border. 

Smoke was pretty much non existent up here today.  Just enough to make a pretty sunset but it wasn’t really very noticeable during much of the day

[Meatyorologist]

Oh wow. Friday night looks very Sept 2019ish. Several hundred j/kg CAPE amidst moist diffluent SSW flow. Some models show initiation.

[Anti Marine Layer]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

I bet that theme continues into June/July at least.

Monsoons in May. Will that be the peak of the monsoon season this year?

[Ken in Wood Village]

It looks like we will see a marine push tomorrow morning. You can see it pushing in towards Eugene. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

It looks like we will see a marine push tomorrow morning. You can see it pushing in towards Eugene. 

It's already reached Corvallis! Only 57 here.

[ShawniganLake]

The warmest place in all of Canada right now is on Haida Gwaii.  I feel like that is probably fairly unusual 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The warmest place in all of Canada right now is on Haida Gwaii.  I feel like that is probably fairly unusual 

PHIL!!!!

[NWbyNW]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Heat miser pattern definitely blowing its load early this year.

I hope so.  Do it early when temps won't be as hot.  Then when summer actually starts, we enter a cool pattern.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

And PDX rolls into the hourly.

Omg it’s Manti Teo! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

64 on the car thermometer at PDX. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For y’all 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

It's already reached Corvallis! Only 57 here.

Only 57 is probably about ten degrees above average for the low.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Only 57 is probably about ten degrees above average for the low.

53 now. PDX hanging tough at 63.