Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Is it better than Lake Chelan?

Chelan always seems to be cold even though the air is hotter.    Cold water is never an issue on Lake Sammamish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Whenever someone enjoys something you often turn it into something darker about economics or race.   Even when those things have nothing to do with it and should not be part of the discussion.  It certainly doesn't apply to being able to enjoy Lake Sammamish.  You do the same thing with skiing.   Economics might actaully apply more to skiing.   But either way... its just your default and it's strange.

Those are two huge issues that are intertwined in almost everything in this country. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I love Tim, so I like to yank his tail once in a while. We aren’t really arguing! We’re usually on good terms and he knows  

It’s not as dramatic as you think! 

This is also true.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Chelan always seems to be cold even though the air is hotter.    Cold water is never an issue on Lake Sammamish.

You’d rather jump into a bathtub?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Those are two huge issues that are intertwined in almost everything in this country. 

Going to a lake is not one of those things. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You’d rather jump into a bathtub?

Chelan is usually shockingly cold.   Sammamish is usually just refreshing.   Its always cooler than the air when we are out there on warm sunny days.

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hoodoo is fantastic for working class folx or students on a budget.

Santiam Pass is an outdoor paradise for the 99%!

They allow motor boats on Suttle Lake too but it’s probably cold there so it sucks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still some snow on the mountains of Vegas. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still some snow on the mountains of Vegas. 

Everyone is going to Vegas... anyone find Kayla yet?

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still some snow on the mountains of Vegas. 

Wow, you flew up into the air on one of those giant metal birds? 
 

1 percenter! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Wow, you flew up into the air on one of those giant metal birds? 
 

1 percenter! 

I was thinking the same thing.   Such an elitist.   

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Wow, you flew up into the air on one of those giant metal birds? 
 

1 percenter! 

Andrew EXPOSED

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking the same thing.   Such an elitist.   

I’m flying Spirit, calm down.

[TT-SEA]

Some blessings on the ECMWF next Monday... at least for the northern half of western WA.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m flying Spirit, calm down.

Do you realize how many people can't afford to fly at all or even get transportation to the airport.    You should be guilt ridden right now.   Did you drive your own car to the airport this morning?    Really unfortunate.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Do you realize how many people can't afford to fly at all or even get transportation to the airport.    You should be guilt ridden right now.   Did you drive your own car to the airport this morning?    Really unfortunate.  

I planted 25 trees to help erase my carbon footprint and have made

arrangements to donate my car. In addition I have sent my Miller Lite posters in to be destroyed. 
 

 

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still some snow on the mountains of Vegas. 

Mt Charleston!

[Chewbacca Defense]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It had to be related to something else.   We were all over the lake on Saturday and our temp gauge showed upper 60s everywhere.    Its very uniform and always seems to be that way.  

To Cloud's point though, and granted I am more of a salt water dweller, but I have been out in the waters off of Bellingham/Chuckanut Bay, and can feel quick, massive changes in water temps due to up-welling from deeper water.  Smaller pockets that the sensor on your boat may not even register depending on how fast you are going.

I have also had situations where the temp difference between my chest (at the surface) and my feet is quite a bit different.  I've also experienced that in Lake Whatcom.

 

Maybe this dude found the one 10 cubic foot section of water that comes up straight from the bottom and is 20 degrees colder than the rest of the lake, and maybe that one 10 cubic foot section of water is the ONLY part of the lake that you have not driven through....you have LITERALLY covered every single square inch of that lake except that ONE SECTION.

I'm thinking you need to figure out where this dude drowned, get the boat hooked up and get on down there....for science or something.

 

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

To Cloud's point though, and granted I am more of a salt water dweller, but I have been out in the waters off of Bellingham/Chuckanut Bay, and can feel quick, massive changes in water temps due to up-welling from deeper water.  Smaller pockets that the sensor on your boat may not even register depending on how fast you are going.

I have also had situations where the temp difference between my chest (at the surface) and my feet is quite a bit different.  I've also experienced that in Lake Whatcom.

 

Maybe this dude found the one 10 cubic foot section of water that comes up straight from the bottom and is 20 degrees colder than the rest of the lake, and maybe that one 10 cubic foot section of water is the ONLY part of the lake that you have not driven through....you have LITERALLY covered every single square inch of that lake except that ONE SECTION.

I'm thinking you need to figure out where this dude drowned, get the boat hooked up and get on down there....for science or something.

 

People drown all summer... even when the water is 80 degrees.    Could have been other factors involved including alcohol or exhaustion from being out all day in the heat.  Its easy for officials to blanket warn about cold water at this time of year because it could definitely be a problem in other places.

All I am saying is that we were all over that lake on Saturday from south to north and I never saw the water temp vary from the upper 60s.    It sounds like he was close shore and the boat launch and the water was even warmer in that area.   I guess he could have hit a cold pocket but it seems highly unlikely that cold water was the actual reason for the drowning.   The public beach had hundreds of people in the water when we went by that area.  

[NWbyNW]

 

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone is going to Vegas... anyone find Kayla yet?

Greetings from Las Vegas!! Current temp is 89F in the city of Sin!

[FroYoBro]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone is going to Vegas... anyone find Kayla yet?

I hope she gets a restraining order on you. Online stalkers are a big problem nowadays.

[NWbyNW]

At 8:32 am on May 18, 1980, Mt. St. Helens erupted.

 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone is going to Vegas... anyone find Kayla yet?

Vegas has lots to offer for the top 1%!
 

 

The people who stay here might even be rich enough to be able to afford skiing at Mt Bachelor!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cloud said:

 

Lake Sammamish is the warmest body of water on the planet. Get with the program.

[Chewbacca Defense]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

People drown all summer... even when the water is 80 degrees.    Could have been other factors involved including alcohol or exhaustion from being out all day in the heat.  Its easy for officials to blanket warn about cold water at this time of year because it could definitely be a problem in other places.

All I am saying is that we were all over that lake on Saturday from south to north and I never saw the water temp vary from the upper 60s.    It sounds like he was close shore and the boat launch and the water was even warmer in that area.   I guess he could have hit a cold pocket but it seems highly unlikely that cold water was the actual reason for the drowning.   The public beach had hundreds of people in the water when we went by that area.  

He probably didn't wait at least 30 minutes after eating to jump back in the water.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cloud said:

So you’re telling me the entire lake is 70F? Now that’s can’t be true. It may be warm where you are or at the bouy but I can see a wide rage from 49-60F average for May.  They didn’t specify where he drowned exactly but this is what his friend said. 
 

“An 18-year-old man drowned in Lake Sammamish on Sunday night. The man's friends say he was a strong swimmer, but was likely overcome by the cold water.”

Tim has always exaggerated warm-weather stats like this. Last year he was reporting water temperatures on Lake Sammamish that were thermodynamically impossible given the preceding weather conditions.

It was something like an 86°F water temp (which would have been warmer than every afternoon high over the prior week). And this was coming off a stretch of unusually cool weather, as well.

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lake Sammamish is the warmest body of water on the planet. Get with the program.

Even warmer than the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay?

[Phil]

NYC is a hellhole. Can’t believe @Meatyorologist likes it here.  

[Phil]

Resumption of +IOD/+AMO type circulation with tropical forcing reflecting a phase 8-1 mode going into June.

Will also promote an eastward shift in WWB activity. El Niño SSTA signature should be rock solid by D15.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim has always exaggerated warm-weather stats like this. Last year he was reporting water temperatures on Lake Sammamish that were thermodynamically impossible given the preceding weather conditions.

It was something like an 86°F water temp (which would have been warmer than every afternoon high over the prior week). And this was coming off a stretch of unusually cool weather, as well.

Literally not exaggerating anything.   There is an official buoy with an actual temperature data.  It's available for everyone to view.   I have never seen the water temp at 86 degrees at Sammamish. That would be insane.   You are truly exaggerating your claims about me.    

I don't remember the details of last year's debate but I know you were proven wrong.    It is very possible for the top layer to be warmer than the average temp with lots of sun.   The water temp on Sammamish right now is 70.   That is a fact no matter how much you argue or mock me.  

[Phil]

Interestingly the NH off-equator sector (5-20N) still has the easterlies lingering over the EPAC, reflecting the -NPMM tendency of the system state.

Cold-phase NPAC SSTA signature really wants to stay. And should see both +IOD and +AMO strengthen substantially with this type of circulation, as well.

[TT-SEA]

80 degrees here now... dewpoint of 63.  

Pretty toasty out there.   Not a good day for yardwork.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Resumption of +IOD/+AMO type circulation with tropical forcing reflecting a phase 8-1 mode going into June.

Will also promote an eastward shift in WWB activity. El Niño SSTA signature should be rock solid by D15.

Phase 8-1 is generally pretty warm for the PNW from May-July.

Even more so during JJA.

[Phishy Wx]

82, nice day out.

so far no smoke at the surface, but hazy

[Cold Snap]

Still some smoke around today though not as smoky as yesterday. Currently 76.3. The smoke prevented me from hitting 80 yesterday and will probably do the same today.

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the average temperature around here in July and August is about 65-67 degrees.   Average highs in the upper 70s and average low in the 50s.    The water temp on Lake Sammamish is pretty much guaranteed to be in the 70s to around 80 from mid June through mid September.   In other words... its ALWAYS warmer than average air temp in the summer.   Its not physically impossible... its actually a given that it happens.    And I am sure it is related to the sun warming the top layer.   Its comical that Phil is saying something that happens every single summer is physically impossible.   I know the same thing happens with the lakes in Minnesota which get into the 80s in the summer even though the average air temp is 10 degrees cooler.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

At 8:32 am on May 18, 1980, Mt. St. Helens erupted.

 

The boom shook me out of bed and I ran to my parents room! One of my earliest childhood memories, I was 3.5yrs old. 

[TT-SEA]

This thin band of clouds moving NE this afternoon marks the clearing line of the smoke which is also being pushed off to the NE.  

[TT-SEA]

Only 68 at SEA right now... definitely feeling the effects of the weak marine intrusion there.    

You can see on the observation map that its in the mid 70s just east of SEA in Kent and Renton.     And then upper 70s to low 80s towards the foothills.  

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phase 8-1 is generally pretty warm for the PNW from May-July.

Even more so during JJA.

Yeah that the true re: the trimonthly mean. Though in actuality, the correlations vary quite a bit during that time frame as that is when the ASM activates.

Here’s a more detailed look, from Dr. Roundy’s site. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... the average temperature around here in July and August is about 65-67 degrees.   Average highs in the upper 70s and average low in the 50s.    The water temp on Lake Sammamish is pretty much guaranteed to be in the 70s to around 80 from mid June through mid September.   In other words... it’s ALWAYS warmer than average air temp in the summer.   It’s not physically impossible... it’s actually a given that it happens.    And I am sure it is related to the sun warming the top layer.   It’s comical that Phil is saying something that happens every single summer is physically impossible.   I know the same thing happens with the lakes in Minnesota which get into the 80s in the summer even though the average air temp is 10 degrees cooler.

It’s physically impossible for lake temps to be warmer than the observed **high** temperature every afternoon the prior week (during the springtime warmup).

That’s what I said. And that’s what you were reporting.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that the true re: the trimonthly mean. Though in actuality, the correlations vary quite a bit during that time frame as that is when the ASM activates.

Here’s a more detailed look, from Dr. Roundy’s site. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Thanks... that is very helpful.   Need to bookmark that link.   

Phase 8/1 looks pretty warm in the PNW in late May and June on there.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s physically impossible for lake temps to be warmer than the observed **high** temperature every afternoon the prior week (during the springtime warmup).

That’s what I said. And that’s what you were reporting.

Our debate was actually in July last year.    I looked it up.     

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 pages about the temp of a lake....

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

3 pages about the temp of a lake....

Welcome to the forum offseason. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm

https://weather.com/safety/heat/news/2023-05-16-summer-temperature-outlook?cm_ven=dnt_social_facebook&sf178047970=1&fbclid=IwAR0guH2n8Hy25pCErzXYULPq4wAPnmONaz8JI-oGiWKxc60Z1scou1MxReA&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Never forget the legend. 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

3 pages about the temp of a lake....

Every year!  

So stupid.   And Lake Sammamish is still at 70 degrees right now despite all the debate.   That is just a physical reality.  

[TT-SEA]

SEA jumped 5 degrees to 73 in the last hour with the passage of thin band of high clouds.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It was not related to water temp on Lake Sammamish.   Its currently up to 70 degrees and was in the upper 60s on Sunday when this happened.   I am guessing this incident was related to something else.    We were all in the water on Saturday and it was not bad at all.   It felt nice.  

I mean he could have just dived too deep. Shocked by tye sudden drop in water temp, too deep to swim back up in time. It happens more often than you may think. Pretty unfortunate.