Jump to content

Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


Recommended Posts

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 6:05 p.m. PDT Monday 15 May 2023.

Discussion.

The following areas will have set a daily maximum temperature record 
on Monday May 15, 2023: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of 31.6 
Old record of 30.2 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 33.2 
Old record of 32.0 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of 30.1 
Old record of 25.0 set in 2014 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
Preliminary new record of 32.0 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
Preliminary new record of 31.9 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1959 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 35.0 
Old record of 33.0 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 34.0 
Old record of 33.3 set in 1939 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 28.8 
Old record of 27.0 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 30.1 
Old record of 26.5 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Dawson Creek Area (Dawson Creek A) 
Preliminary new record of 31.1 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1959 
Records in this area have been kept since 1926 

Fort St. John Area (Fort St John Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 31.0 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1959 
Records in this area have been kept since 1910 

Kamloops Area (Kamloops Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 32.2 
Old record of 31.1 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1890 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
Preliminary new record of 32.1 
Old record of 31.3 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lillooet Area (Lillooet) 
Preliminary new record of 34.4 
Old record of 33.9 set in 1925 
Records in this area have been kept since 1917 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 36.5 
Old record of 33.9 set in 1949 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 32.4 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Merritt Area (Merritt) 
Preliminary new record of 32.9 
Old record of 32.0 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1918 

Nakusp Area (Nakusp CS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.0 
Old record of 28.8 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1966 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 35.9 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1925 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
Preliminary new record of 33.1 
Old record of 30.0 set in 1895 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 34.3 
Old record of 30.0 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Port Hardy Area (Port Hardy A) 
Preliminary new record of 27.2 
Old record of 22.4 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Powell River Area (Powell River) 
Preliminary new record of 30.2 
Old record of 26.0 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1924 

Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 30.7 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1925 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Prince Rupert Area (Prince Rupert) 
Preliminary new record of 22.9 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1921 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Sandspit Area (Sandspit Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 19.8 
Old record of 17.0 set in 2011 
Records in this area have been kept since 1945 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 30.6 
Old record of 26.1 set in 2014 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Smithers Area (Smithers Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 29.5 
Old record of 22.8 set in 1952 
Records in this area have been kept since 1938 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 34.3 
Old record of 31.5 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Terrace Area (Terrace A) 
Preliminary new record of 29.5 
Old record of 28.3 set in 1925 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Vancouver Area (Vancouver Intl A) 
Preliminary new record of 24.3 
Old record of 24.2 set in 1997 
Records in this area have been kept since 1896 

Victoria Area (Victoria Intl A) 
Preliminary new record of 29.5 
Old record of 25.9 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 30.3 
Old record of 26.1 set in 1895 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 30.3 
Old record of 26.7 set in 2007 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
Preliminary new record of 31.7 
Old record of 27.6 set in 2006 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) 
Preliminary new record of 28.8 
Old record of 26.1 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Yoho (National Park) Area (Yoho Park) 
Preliminary new record of 28.3 
Old record of 26.1 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1923 
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up with a 91/61 day yesterday. Third 90+ day in a row here. The low of 61 was at midnight so that was nice.

Hot and sunny through early afternoon then increasing clouds. Had a great light show to the north around 6pm. Some loud thunder and several impressive branching strikes of lightning visible. At least we got something out of the hot pattern.

Partly to mostly cloudy and 58 this morning. Glad to see the models converging on a decent cooldown over the weekend and early next week, but not quite ready to buy it yet.

  • Like 3

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A “cooler” low of 55 this morning after 2 +60 lows in a row. We’re up to +3.5F MTD as of yesterday. Pretty much a lock for a warmer than normal month at this point. 
 89 is a record for the month of May here, and we should break the record of +80 days for the month as well by the end of the week. Tables have really turned as we entered the second half of spring. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lots of cloud cover here this morning. Maybe an underachiever for temperatures today?

There was only slight cooling at 850 hPa relative to yesterday, so the temperature will shoot up 15 F with ease as soon as the sun comes out and we mix down the warm air again. 

I think Sea-Tac will have no problem hitting 80 again today. 

  • Like 2
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There was only slight cooling at 850 hPa relative to yesterday, so the temperature will shoot up 15 F with ease as soon as the sun comes out and we mix down the warm air again. 

I think Sea-Tac will have no problem hitting 80 again today. 

That mixing between the warm 850s and the marine layer should compromise the current airmass a small bit, so no 90s again today. But 80 is pretty much a given, assuming things mix fully and there aren't any pesky wind patterns.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 89 SEA hit was impressive, but falls short of the April 2016 heatwave (by far their earliest 89), and the May 2008 event that hit 90. 1963, 1969, and 1983 are the only other Mays that have touched 90.

1963, 1969, 1983, 2008, 2016...not exactly a bunch of scorching summers that followed.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That mixing between the warm 850s and the marine layer should compromise the current airmass a small bit, so no 90s again today. But 80 is pretty much a given, assuming things mix fully and there aren't any pesky wind patterns.

You survived! Did the time lapse turn out?

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awesome to see you guys get some thunderstorm action. We may have our temperature preference battles, but I think we all love thunderstorms. ❤️

They’re perhaps the most dramatic display of nature’s power, and in fact they’re the only reason I haven’t moved yet. Haha.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, I have a hard time believing the warm pattern will crash as quickly as some guidance suggests. This particular structure of dAAMv/MJO-LP decoherence isn’t usually a cool signal in the West in late May.

Although it is a borderline unprecedented system state (by satellite era standards) given how east based the developing Niño is, and the fact +NAMM/+IOD are also manifesting in the LP. So we haven’t really had the chance to see this play out (at this time of year, especially).

If models are right, my guess is it’ll be a quick cooldown (i.e: a shot across the bow) followed by another 7-10 days of warm ridging, then a more substantial shift in June when more factors start aligning against a +TNH response.

But have to admit this is a very difficult evolution to project from/into, so I’m rapidly losing confidence I can predict it successfully. 😬 The patterns may be predictable, but how they develop/transition could be near impossible to see until it’s right in front of us.

  • Like 2
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also note the operational GFS is a significant cold outlier relative to its ensemble mean, and almost none of the Canadian ensembles are seeing a prolonged cooldown.

I think it’s a head fake. Gonna stick with my guns and predict the warm pattern will persist until (at least) until Memorial Day, and possibly into the first week of June.

Come June 5-10 the pattern forcings will no longer support +TNH, and we’ll move into either a flat +NPO/Beaufort ridge (zonal in PNW/W-Canada) or high wave-number progressive-ULL mode neutral to most EOFs (which is also zonal but progressive zonal instead of stationary zonal).

Either way, next month looks to trend zonal. I think. 😆 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting.

 

Would enlarging the polar vortex make it easier for arctic air to spill south?

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Would enlarging the polar vortex make it easier for arctic air to spill south?

This is the Southern Hemisphere, but behaviors down can offer clues as to how the general circulation may evolve, and even how the developing El Niño may evolve by some recent research.

More directly/conclusively, it suggest the SAM/AAO may tend to be in a very positive state over the next 12-18 months (IE: strong Antarctic polar vortex). Which may dampen the SH component of the MC. The NH consequences of that are state dependent (QBO/ENSO & any subseasonal wave driving events could alter the picture).

In the opposite case, we saw how the last Antarctic SSW forced an axisymmetric z-cell response (reflective). And may have helped set the stage for the prolonged -ENSO.

Though since (IMO) this multi year La Niña event was predictable via intradecadal resonance of the IPWP (between the E-IO and dateline) perhaps the reasons for said resonance are deeper than just solar cycle forcing on MC and Hadley/Walker mechanics? Idk.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also note the operational GFS is a significant cold outlier relative to its ensemble mean, and almost none of the Canadian ensembles are seeing a prolonged cooldown.

I think it’s a head fake. Gonna stick with my guns and predict the warm pattern will persist until (at least) until Memorial Day, and possibly into the first week of June.

Come June 5-10 the pattern forcings will no longer support +TNH, and we’ll move into either a flat +NPO/Beaufort ridge (zonal in PNW/W-Canada) or high wave-number progressive-ULL mode neutral to most EOFs (which is also zonal but progressive zonal instead of stationary zonal).

Either way, next month looks to trend zonal. I think. 😆 

Cool down looks quick. The trough that cools us down is surrounded by ridging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some fairly big fire downtown is smoking up the whole of SW right now. 

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "heat" is pretty uninspiring today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spectacular day... sunny and 74 here and the air feels much less humid today.

The 12Z EPS only shows a brief cool down and then warming up again next week.   Although we should be done with record heat either.   EPS looks similar to the GEM ensemble mean.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1684238400-1684540800-1685232000-10.gif

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

no 'heat' except for the taco bell gas.  gross

70 and Partly Cloudy.

 

Nice day out.  I fear though that Canadian smokes going to eventually find its way into a gap in the rockies and get down here.

Canadian smoke model shows it getting close in a couple days... but increased onshore flow over the weekend and next week should help out quite a bit.  

 

2023051612_V2023051820Z_gemmach_PM2.5_diffplot_column_continental_056.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

79 in Silverton 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...