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Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023


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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Agreed... not fan of those.   

Cooked asparagus in butter is quite good.

I like to throw some in the oven tossed with olive oil, thyme, onion powder, and minced garlic.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Tyler Mode said:

That smoke is getting awfully close...

Screenshot 2023-05-17 at 06-00-00 COD NEXLAB Satellite and Radar.png

Yeah if I look to my north the sky definitely has that smoke look to it.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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The sun has that August-October smoky look about it now that the fog burned off. 
And of course I have to post Phil’s PNA since he is so obsessed with it. 

IMG_5427.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Guidance is universal in keeping the 4-corners region wetter than average. I expect this anomaly will expand NW-ward with time, with a similar poleward migration of the warm temperature anomaly in the western US.

It seems that, for the first time in 3 years, the interior west won’t be roasting and burning under a massive 4CH death ridge all summer.

Playing the long game with this regime.

IMG_3514.pngIMG_3515.pngIMG_3516.png

A stellar winter followed by a cool summer and then another projected beneficial winter. The desert SW is experiencing some true blessings over the long term.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Sun is red and I'm sweating. In May, at 8:30am. This is the BALANCED weather some have peen pining for all Spring!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sun is red and I'm sweating. In May, at 8:30am. This is the BALANCED weather some have peen pining for all Spring!

Nope... not balanced.    One extreme or the other.   Picking up right where we left off last warm season.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sun is red and I'm sweating. In May, at 8:30am. This is the BALANCED weather some have peen pining for all Spring!

I can't believe you guys are dealing with smoke in Mid May! If this is our new normal the entire west coast into Canada might have to start doing control burns all winter long to thin out the forest. 

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There was so much gunk in the sky this AM I thought it was just an overcast day. Took until approximately 10AM for the sun to cut through it.

Seems it’s finally moved out of here, though. Now it’s a Tim-tactic blue sky day.

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GFS sure has been cutting back on precip amounts with the Sunday/Monday trough.   The 12Z run basically shows nothing for the west side from Bellingham southward which is much less than previous showed.   At least it still shows rain up in southern Canada though.  

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-4800000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Nice thing about onshore flow. No fires over the ocean. 

Although in September of 2020 we had a massive area of smoke that moved westward over the ocean from Oregon and then swamped western WA in smoke when onshore flow returned.    It actually got much worse when the flow came in from the ocean.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just horrible.    Its May 17th.  

it's not like we couldn't see this coming a mile away.  signs have been pointing towards a smoky summer since March with the dry late winter.  I just didn't think mid May for it to start.  wasn't planning on turning on the AC yet, not because I need it but because I can't have the windows open.  hopefully it stays elevated in the upper atmosphere for now.

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18 hours ago, MossMan said:

DANGERUSS! El Niño is going to take us all out! 
Got to love these pop up articles. 

IMG_5420.jpeg

I thought my family had allergies, but maybe we all have COVID. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well Timothy, I hope you are happy now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well Timothy, I hope you are happy now. 

I was definitely not happy last summer and fall and now right back where we left off.   I would much prefer weekly rain events during the warm season.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I keep going back to the feeling that Tonga and the crazy amount of water vapor still in the stratosphere is impacting the patterns and playing some sort of role in making our warm seasons even more extreme.  But maybe this summer will end up being very different than last year and I am wrong and its just a coincidence with the timing.   I just don't have any confidence in that right now given what is happening.    There was just absolutely no way last summer should have ended up being the hottest and driest ever during a 3rd year of a Nina.    And the start of this warm season is just about as crazy.  

Of course a couple people here will constantly mock me for thinking Tonga might be playing a role... but I am guessing even they are considering there might be some correlation.    We may never know the answer though because there are so many variables.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I keep going back to the feeling that Tonga and the crazy amount of water vapor still in the stratosphere is impacting the patterns and playing some sort of role in making our warm seasons even more extreme.  But maybe this summer will end up being very different than last year and I am wrong and its just a coincidence with the timing.   I just don't have any confidence in that right now given what is happening.    There was just absolutely no way last summer should have ended up being the hottest and driest ever during a 3rd year of a Nina.    And the start of this warm season is just about as crazy.  

Of course a couple people here will constantly mock me for thinking Tonga might be playing a role... but I am guessing even they are considering there might be some correlation.    We may never know the answer though because there are so many variables.

I think it has caused some things for us, maybe not directly but a contributor for sure.  Hopefully I live long enough to see the eventual data and studies about it come to fruition.

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think it has caused some things for us, maybe not directly but a contributor for sure.  Hopefully I live long enough to see the eventual data and studies about it come to fruition.

Its hard to nail down because if there has been an effect... its definitely not making the rest of the year warmer.    It seems to be only happening during the warm season.   Amplifying the already existing long term trend towards warmer.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS sure has been cutting back on precip amounts with the Sunday/Monday trough.   The 12Z run basically shows nothing for the west side from Bellingham southward which is much less than previous showed.   At least it still shows rain up in southern Canada though.  

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-4800000.png

It’s nice to see the east side saying wet though. 

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great

 

ISSUED: 11:25 AM MAY. 17, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
An Air Quality Alert has been issued by the following agencies:

Spokane Regional Clean Air Agency
Washington Department of Ecology in Spokane
Washington Department of Ecology in Yakima

The Washington Department of Ecology has announced an Air Quality Alert
for all of Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Lincoln, Spokane,
Adams, and Whitman counties from 4 pm Wednesday May 17 through 10 AM
Saturday May 20, due to expected wildfire smoke from Canada.

Particulate matter (PM2.5) levels may reach Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups levels.

Health Impacts and Recommended Actions:

When air quality is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, sensitive
persons may experience health effects and should limit prolonged or
heavy exertion and limit time spent outdoors.

When air quality is Unhealthy, everyone should limit their time outdoors,
and people with asthma, respiratory infections, diabetes, lung or heart
disease should stay indoors.
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Been playing 'Tears of the Kingdom' a bunch so I've been AWOL getting pulled into that world. Looks like more warm and dry weather at this point. Feels so different than back in like 2010 or so.

Currently 78F with a few clouds but mostly clear. Beautiful day.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I keep going back to the feeling that Tonga and the crazy amount of water vapor still in the stratosphere is impacting the patterns and playing some sort of role in making our warm seasons even more extreme.  But maybe this summer will end up being very different than last year and I am wrong and its just a coincidence with the timing.   I just don't have any confidence in that right now given what is happening.    There was just absolutely no way last summer should have ended up being the hottest and driest ever during a 3rd year of a Nina.    And the start of this warm season is just about as crazy.  

Of course a couple people here will constantly mock me for thinking Tonga might be playing a role... but I am guessing even they are considering there might be some correlation.    We may never know the answer though because there are so many variables.

It's entirely possible. I also saw there was just a study suggesting that the triple-dip La Niña was partially caused by marine cloud brightening as a result of the Australian wildfires. That mechanism is plausible for sure. And this upcoming El Niño is following straight from that -- historically it's unusual to get a strong El Niño right after a triple-dip La Niña but the current trends in observations seem to be suggesting this is not going to be a weak El Niño and could be an exceptional one. 

One should be able to work out the impacts of the Tonga volcano as well, it will just take time for scientists to do the studies. I know there has been plenty of speculation. Certainly it's one of many events that go under the "natural variability" umbrella.

The nonlinear effects of climate change are especially concerning to me, especially when combined with other anthropogenic changes to the environment like urbanization, forest management, water management, etc. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS sure has been cutting back on precip amounts with the Sunday/Monday trough.   The 12Z run basically shows nothing for the west side from Bellingham southward which is much less than previous showed.   At least it still shows rain up in southern Canada though.  

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-4800000.png

There's potential for a decent PSCZ on Sunday evening, as shown in the 00 UTC Euro, but unfortunately the 12 UTC run doesn't have much going on. 

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71 here at noon…little warmer than this time yesterday but not as hot as I thought it would be. I guess the blessing of smoke aloft is a bit cooler temps. Never thought we would be dealing with wildfire smoke so late in the season like last year…and then so early this year but here we are. F*cking sucks. 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Aaand Euro is out.

Warmest May on record is basically a lock now.

Yeah... holiday weekend coming into view.   Geez.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-5188800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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