Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Woke up to rain pounding on the roof... picked up .40 overnight which is very welcome.

Wow, suddenly you have a rain gauge? What’s next? A thermometer?

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, suddenly you have a rain gauge? What’s next? A thermometer?

I do have an old fashion rain gauge that I use in the warm season to determine when I need to water.    And the stations on both sides of me show the same amount.   Still pouring so might end up with .50

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 49 this morning…first time below 50 since 5/11. We picked up 0.01” overnight better than nothing I suppose. Our grass is already starting to turn yellow here. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

.17" this morning and enjoying the cool break in the weather.   Got down the 50 overnight after a high yesterday of 67.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 49 this morning…first time below 50 since 5/11. We picked up 0.01” overnight better than nothing I suppose. Our grass is already starting to turn yellow here. 

Wild, our grass just really got going up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE running +1.3 on their all time warmest May. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE running +1.3 on their all time warmest May. 

Looking at the zone forecast the next week, they should be at 62.5F by the 28th, which would put them at +1.5F over the record warmest May with 3 days to go. They are doing this on the backs of the warm lows. They are about -2.5F behind the average daily max from May 1992. 

[MossMan]

Wet deck! Only .06” so far though. 
48 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

SSTA comparison... last year in late May compared to now.    This summer should be different.   And anything different would be better.

[TacomaWx]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wild, our grass just really got going up here. 

Last time it was this yellow in May was 2019…that year didn’t turn out too bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we check out the long term CFS it is pretty close to normal this summer. After that it's pretty warm...

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Last time it was this yellow in May was 2019…that year didn’t turn out too bad. 

Before that probably 2016?

[MossMan]

According to my app this weekend’s weather looks coolish! 

[Skagit Weather]

9 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Isn't snowpack percentage a lot less important this time of year, though, compared to winter and early spring?

Yeah, the percentages start to get a little wonky near the end of the season as places start to melt out, but usually they still provide a relatively representative sample through mid to late May. By June it's not worth using them though. 50-60% of average now means places are melting out 2-4 weeks early.

In terms of the physical numbers, as Cliff mentioned in his latest blog, the eastern reservoirs are doing well, but having a healthy snowpack still matters for glaciers and undammed rivers. I talked to some farmers in the Methow Valley last week and they were certainly worried about how quickly they were losing the snowpack (both in terms of later water supply and the drying out of fuels). And of course the earlier the glaciers are exposed, the more of them we loose until the melt season ends in September or October.

[Phishy Wx]

51 out, refreshing 17 mph 'breeze'

Spring finally arrived after almost 2 weeks of Summer and smoke.  lol

shiits Whack, Yo

[Phishy Wx]

Headed to the Bay Area to see The Cure over Memorial weekend.  Wx looks glorious.  Highs in the 60s/low 70s lows in the 50s

[the_convergence_zone]

0.03" ... typical for me to miss out on CZ action. I just want one more good soaking before dry season but it feels like the clock is ticking. Maybe next week...

[TacomaWx]

48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Before that probably 2016?

Can’t really remember how spring 2016 grass conditions were. Was probably smoking too much grass myself to remember. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Yesterday was really nice. Mostly cloudy with some morning drizzle and a high of 63, then some clearing in the evening for a nice sunset and an evening low of 51. 

Mostly cloudy and 54 currently.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, the percentages start to get a little wonky near the end of the season as places start to melt out, but usually they still provide a relatively representative sample through mid to late May. By June it's not worth using them though. 50-60% of average now means places are melting out 2-4 weeks early.

In terms of the physical numbers, as Cliff mentioned in his latest blog, the eastern reservoirs are doing well, but having a healthy snowpack still matters for glaciers and undammed rivers. I talked to some farmers in the Methow Valley last week and they were certainly worried about how quickly they were losing the snowpack (both in terms of later water supply and the drying out of fuels). And of course the earlier the glaciers are exposed, the more of them we loose until the melt season ends in September or October.

I’ve kind of made peace with the fact that most of the Cascade glaciers are toast. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Got down to 39!!! last night IMBY

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve kind of made peace with the fact that most of the Cascade glaciers are toast. 

But the trade is 17 more water skiing days in the gorgeous King County LAKES. Sees like a great deal. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But the trade is 17 more water skiing days in the gorgeous King County LAKES. Sees like a great deal. 

Yes!  

Although no one does waterskiing any more... its all about wake surfing.   

You seem angry that some people find ways to really enjoy our warm days.    As I have mentioned a million times... balance is good.   Rainy periods make the warm periods more enjoyable.    Just like with anything else in life, Andrew.   All good in moderation. 

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve kind of made peace with the fact that most of the Cascade glaciers are toast. 

It turns out that many of them were artifacts of the little ice age and they were already on the way out even prior to recent round of anthropogenic climate change. Many we already shrinking in the first half of the 20th Century. Same goes for many of our old growth forests, unfortunately, as the current climate is already better suited for different species of trees than the ones that are currently 300-500 years old. 

Of course other glaciers like the larger ones on the volcanoes will be the real victims of our current era of anthropogenic climate change. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve kind of made peace with the fact that most of the Cascade glaciers are toast. 

Cascades will probably be mainly ice free below 12K' by 2150 (except for maybe that sheltered currently growing glacier in the caldera of St Helens, unless it blows again)

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Cascades will probably be mainly ice free below 12K' by 2150 (except for maybe that sheltered currently growing glacier in the caldera of St Helens, unless it blows again)

The hydrologic cycle is going to be wild if the climate model projections are correct. Trending towards wetter winters, higher melting levels, and more extreme storms. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes!  

Although no one does waterskiing any more... its all about wake surfing.   

You seem angry that some people find ways to really enjoy our warm days.    As I have mentioned a million times... balance is good.   Rainy periods make the warm periods more enjoyable.    Just like with anything else in life, Andrew.   All good in moderation. 

Climate Change is like the opioid epidemic.  we know its happening but we generally ignore it as a society and put our collective heads in the sand.  in these cases there is no such thing as 'good in moderation'

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Cascades will probably be mainly ice free below 12K' by 2150 (except for maybe that sheltered currently growing glacier in the caldera of St Helens, unless it blows again)

Will be a very grim 164th birthday for me

[ShawniganLake]

Was pretty windy here yesterday evening. Even lost power for a few hours.  Cloudy and dry and 56F this morning.  
 

Many of the fire zones of BC and Alberta will be receiving heavy rain over the next couple days. Could be 1-4” in some areas

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Climate Change is like the opioid epidemic.  we know its happening but we generally ignore it as a society and put our collective heads in the sand.  in these cases there is no such thing as 'good in moderation'

Maybe we can genetically engineer salmon to survive in warmer waters...

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Climate Change is like the opioid epidemic.  we know its happening but we generally ignore it as a society and put our collective heads in the sand.  in these cases there is no such thing as 'good in moderation'

There has always been warm days in the summer for water activities.   Even in 1954.    There definitely is good in moderation.    Its not like it has to be 48 degrees and raining all summer for the ecosystem to be healthy.     In fact that would be quite destructive except for growing glaciers.   

And the other thing that most people intuitively realize is that the climate is always changing.   We are still coming out of the LIA period which followed the medieval warm period... all natural.    I think many people also realize there are man-made factors which is why there is such a push for cleaner energy solutions.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There has always been warm days in the summer for water activities.   Even in 1954.    There definitely is good in moderation.    Its not like it has to be 48 degrees and raining all summer for the ecosystem to be healthy.     In fact that would be quite destructive except for growing glaciers.   

And the other thing that most people intuitively realize is that the climate is always changing.   We are still coming out of the LIA period which followed the medieval warm period... all natural.    I think many people also realize there are man-made factors which is why there is such a push for cleaner energy solutions.

I think you should sell your boat in the name of saving the glaciers. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think you should sell your boat in the name of saving the glaciers. 

The usual virtue signaling from our resident Karens... who also love to mock other people for being Karens.  

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes!  

Although no one does waterskiing any more... its all about wake surfing.   

You seem angry that some people find ways to really enjoy our warm days.    As I have mentioned a million times... balance is good.   Rainy periods make the warm periods more enjoyable.    Just like with anything else in life, Andrew.   All good in moderation. 

I got into Hydrofoiling for a time back in the early 2000’s which was fun but preferred wakeboarding and skiing. I must be getting “get off my lawn” old but I find wake surfing slow and annoying. Plus the waves from those $150k boats with 10 thousand pounds of ballast (not to mention the the music from the mega speakers on the towers that just echo across the lake of either county music or rap) just slam my boat at the dock, and the rollers hitting our shoreline like we are at Ocean Shores!
And kids these days need to feel real pain…You haven’t felt real pain until you do a header while slalom skiing at 35MPH! Not falling gently doing 8MPH while going in a large circle. 
 

Yep I’m officially old. 

Edited May 22 by MossMan

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got into Hydrofoiling for a time back in the early 2000’s which was fun but preferred wakeboarding and skiing. I must be getting “get off my lawn” old but I find wake surfing slow and annoying. Plus the waves from those $150k boats with 10 thousand pounds of ballast (not to mention the the music from the mega speakers on the towers that just echo across the lake of either county music or rap) just slam my boat at the dock, and the rollers hitting our shoreline like we are at Ocean Shores!
And kids these days need to feel real pain…You haven’t felt real pain until you do a header while slalom skiing at 35MPH! Not falling gently doing 8MPH while going in a large circle. 
 

Yep I’m officially old. 

Tell us how you really feel, grandpa!   

[TT-SEA]

The fact is climo dictates there will always be plenty of summer days to enjoy all of our water.   Puget Sound, lakes, rivers.   All it takes is a sunny day that is 70+ degrees.   One of the reasons this area is such a great place to live.   

And the fact that it bothers a couple people so much makes it even more fun to talk about on here.   

[Slushy Inch]

I think that at some point we could get unstable southerly flow again. Has been showing up at some point in every ensemble run.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think that at some point we could get unstable southerly flow again. Has been showing up at some point in every ensemble run.

Big time convection pattern... 00Z ECMWF showed this as well. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Got a sluice box when I go gold panning now. Maybe Jim can teach me to strike it rich

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF brings in the system from west on Sunday... similar to what the GEM has been showing.   Lots of variables concerning when and where the ULLs form and meander.   At least Wednesday-Saturday should be nice.   A rainy day on Sunday will be needed.    Monday is back to dry and becoming sunny on this run.  

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I got into Hydrofoiling for a time back in the early 2000’s which was fun but preferred wakeboarding and skiing. I must be getting “get off my lawn” old but I find wake surfing slow and annoying. Plus the waves from those $150k boats with 10 thousand pounds of ballast (not to mention the the music from the mega speakers on the towers that just echo across the lake of either county music or rap) just slam my boat at the dock, and the rollers hitting our shoreline like we are at Ocean Shores!
And kids these days need to feel real pain…You haven’t felt real pain until you do a header while slalom skiing at 35MPH! Not falling gently doing 8MPH while going in a large circle. 
 

Yep I’m officially old. 

I got to play on a buddies electric E Foil last summer and it was incredible fun. No boat needed. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

I got to play on a buddies electric E Foil last summer and it was incredible fun. No boat needed. 

Tahoe is only for privileged elitists.    You should be ashamed for even looking at the lake.  

[RentonHill]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SSTA comparison... last year in late May compared to now.    This summer should be different.   And anything different would be better.

lmao famous last words

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Got a sluice box when I go gold panning now. Maybe Jim can teach me to strike it rich

I got one of these too!and a blue wheel and a bunch of pans (including a banjo pan ha) I swear to god if jim doesn't come through on this...i will be very angry on the internet at someone I do not know!!)

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tahoe is only for privileged elitists.    You should be ashamed for even looking at the lake.  

I unfortunately looked at it Saturday cause the dog wanted to swim. Huge thunderstorm over north shore at that time. 

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF brings in the system from west on Sunday... similar to what the GEM has been showing.   Lots of variables concerning when and where the ULLs form and meander.   At least Wednesday-Saturday should be nice.   A rainy day on Sunday will be needed.    Monday is back to dry and becoming sunny on this run.  

FWIW... the 12Z EPS and control run wash out that system coming in from the west on Sunday.

[SouthHillFrosty]

41 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

lmao famous last words

I got one of these too!and a blue wheel and a bunch of pans (including a banjo pan ha) I swear to god if jim doesn't come through on this...i will be very angry on the internet at someone I do not know!!)

How do you like the banjo pan? It's a great alternative. Also, how do you like the sluice box?

[ShawniganLake]

    Drizzling  

[Chewbacca Defense]

Been drizzling all morning with a few bursts of moderate rain.  Up to .4" on the day and the temp is at 52.  Really glad I didn't let my attack of the lazies win out yesterday and got out and thatched/scarified my back yard, overseeded it, then dropped down a layer of topsoil and fertilizer.  This nice slow rain will give everything a nice soaking and allow the fertilizer to soak in. 

[MossMan]

Liquid has stopped falling from the sky. Currently 53 degrees. 
.12” on the day, 1.71” for the month, 21.88” for the year. 
Even more color around the house now! And my boat is ready to hit the lake! 

[RentonHill]

25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How do you like the banjo pan? It's a great alternative. Also, how do you like the sluice box?

i mean, at this point i dont know if I'm doing things wrong or if there's just no gold in the ground I was trying