Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It turns out that many of them were artifacts of the little ice age and they were already on the way out even prior to recent round of anthropogenic climate change. Many we already shrinking in the first half of the 20th Century. Same goes for many of our old growth forests, unfortunately, as the current climate is already better suited for different species of trees than the ones that are currently 300-500 years old. 

Of course other glaciers like the larger ones on the volcanoes will be the real victims of our current era of anthropogenic climate change. 

 

Yeah, it's definitely been an up and down cycle. My understanding is that glacier size generally peaked before or around 1900 and then trended downwards until the late 1940s/early '50s. Some of the smaller glaciers in the 1950s looked comparable to what they did in the last decade. With the slightly cooler and wetter weather of the late 50s to early 70s most glaciers grew. The average glacier on Mt. Baker advanced by 500+ meters. Since then it's been all downhill and as far as I know every glacier in the Cascades (save the new ones on Mt. St. Helens) is at it's smallest size in recorded history.

Unless another cooling period was on its way, many of our current glaciers were always destined to disappear (especially those below 8-9,000'), but having warmer and dryer than normal summers is significantly speeding up the process. What was probably going to happen in 100-200 years now may happen in 50.

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Big time convection pattern... 00Z ECMWF showed this as well. 

Flow straight out of the tropics 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

65F and partly cloudy. Hope y'all are having a good spring. Looking forward to the weekend.

[Cold Snap]

Well a cool first half of June might be out the window.

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The usual virtue signaling from our resident Karens... who also love to mock other people for being Karens.  

The only reason you can afford your boat is because you live rent free inside their heads.  

[ShawniganLake]

My summer thoughts;

Warm June

Warm July

Average August

Cool September 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

33 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i mean, at this point i dont know if I'm doing things wrong or if there's just no gold in the ground I was trying 

We need to Jim to show us the way lol. I feel the same way.

Edited May 22 by SouthHillFrosty

[TT-SEA]

46 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, it's definitely been an up and down cycle. My understanding is that glacier size generally peaked before or around 1900 and then trended downwards until the late 1940s/early '50s. Some of the smaller glaciers in the 1950s looked comparable to what they did in the last decade. With the slightly cooler and wetter weather of the late 50s to early 70s most glaciers grew. The average glacier on Mt. Baker advanced by 500+ meters. Since then it's been all downhill and as far as I know every glacier in the Cascades (save the new ones on Mt. St. Helens) is at it's smallest size in recorded history.

Unless another cooling period was on its way, many of our current glaciers were always destined to disappear (especially those below 8-9,000'), but having warmer and dryer than normal summers is significantly speeding up the process. What was probably going to happen in 100-200 years now may happen in 50.

This is great perspective.

Also... a glacier peak around 1900 is probably a similar phenomenon on a much longer scale related to the end of the LIA as mountain snow pack peaking on April 1st each year.

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well a cool first half of June might be out the window.

New ECMWF weeklies looks pretty warm for the next 6 weeks overall.

[TacomaWx]

47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

My summer thoughts;

Warm June

Warm July

Average August

Cool September 

 

Yeah I think this will be a frontloaded summer…basically has already started it seems. 

[TacomaWx]

Only 0.01” of rain this morning…would’ve been nice to get more precip like what was picked up north of here. Just 0.69” MTD. 

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Tell us how you really feel, grandpa!   

I mean C’MON at least play good music like Metallica or Pearl Jam or Soundgarden or Led Zeppelin or The Doors or even some Rush…Something I can stomach as it echos across the lake and into my eardrums. Not some dumb country song like “I’m in my lifted Dodge and I’m driving down a dirt road and going to shoot me some tin cans in the woods and drink some Coors Light”  By some dude with a fake southern drawl that grew up in Oregon. 
 

NOW GET OFF MY LAWN YOU YOUNG WIPPER SNAPPERS…I just mowed it. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

My summer thoughts;

Warm June

Warm July

Average August

Cool September 

 

This is the way

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I mean C’MON at least play good music like Metallica or Pearl Jam or Soundgarden or Led Zeppelin or The Doors or even some Rush…Something I can stomach as it echos across the lake and into my eardrums. Not some dumb country song like “I’m in my lifted Dodge and I’m driving down a dirt road and going to shoot me some tin cans in the woods and drink some Coors Light”  By some dude with a fake southern drawl that grew up in Oregon. 
 

NOW GET OFF MY LAWN YOU YOUNG WIPPER SNAPPERS…I just mowed it. 

Fun Fact. Australians call weed whacking "Whipper Snipping" 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Fun Fact. Australians call weed whacking "Whipper Snipping" 

Oh I am using that from now on!!! 

[Phishy Wx]

Welp it's been a good run

 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Welp it's been a good run

 

That should cool things down! 

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That should cool things down! 

Assuming it lands near us the initial heat wave should only last a few hours too, which is nice. 

[lowlandsnow]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, it's definitely been an up and down cycle. My understanding is that glacier size generally peaked before or around 1900 and then trended downwards until the late 1940s/early '50s. Some of the smaller glaciers in the 1950s looked comparable to what they did in the last decade. With the slightly cooler and wetter weather of the late 50s to early 70s most glaciers grew. The average glacier on Mt. Baker advanced by 500+ meters. Since then it's been all downhill and as far as I know every glacier in the Cascades (save the new ones on Mt. St. Helens) is at it's smallest size in recorded history.

Unless another cooling period was on its way, many of our current glaciers were always destined to disappear (especially those below 8-9,000'), but having warmer and dryer than normal summers is significantly speeding up the process. What was probably going to happen in 100-200 years now may happen in 50.

I think they peaked earlier than that closer to the mid 19th century. Blue glacier which was once combined with White Glacier (on Mount Olympus) peaked around 1815 and Nisqually glacier peaked around 1850. 

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That should cool things down! 

The recent 2.7 million hour CFS runs say NOPE.

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The recent 2.7 million hour CFS runs say NOPE.

CFS doesnt incorporate low-pass signals from high-earth orbit, which this asteroid is a perfect example of, if it follows its forecasted downwelling trajectory, verbatim. 

[TT-SEA]

Eric was all over the warming water off the west coast in the Ag Weather update today.    He thinks its going to be warm in the west this summer and cooler in the middle part of the country.

[FroYoBro]

The last couple of days have been a nice change of pace. Cool, comfortable and not covered in sweat. God takes care of his children. 

[T-Town]

Sunny and breezy and 64 here. Breezier in Ellensburg. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Sunny and breezy and 64 here. Breezier in Ellensburg. 

Typical Ellensburg... seems like every time we stop there its windy. 

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Typical Ellensburg... seems like every time we stop there its windy. 

same, it's never not at least breezy

[MossMan]

Currently 53 and drizzle here at my place. Oh and my Pandora must have heard me talk about Rush on the forum earlier. I’m going to take out a loan and put a $20k sound system in my $7k boat and blast all of those young punks at the lake with real music all summer long!! 

Edited May 23 by MossMan

[Omegaraptor]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Typical Ellensburg... seems like every time we stop there its windy. 

Passed through (and stopped in) Ellensburg last October. Was dead calm both on the way there and back.

My brother told me this was highly unusual.

The 82F car temp on top of Snoqualmie Pass was also highly unusual given it was at about noon on October 2nd.

[T-Town]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Typical Ellensburg... seems like every time we stop there its windy. 

Always. 

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve kind of made peace with the fact that most of the Cascade glaciers are toast. 

I was thinking about this today... you have comes to terms with the reality of a process (melting glaciers) that started long before your arrival on this planet and will likely continue long after your departure.   Part of a cycle that has repeated for eons.  

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

I think they peaked earlier than that closer to the mid 19th century. Blue glacier which was once combined with White Glacier (on Mount Olympus) peaked around 1815 and Nisqually glacier peaked around 1850. 

That may be true, but it looks like there really wasn't much change in length for most of them until 1900 (barring a couple exceptions). Here are estimated relative glacier lengths from a number of glaciers throughout the Washington Cascades based on the growth rates of lichen in the associated moraines (associated paper). Pretty consistent lengths throughout the 19th century although the Nisqually on Rainier and Easton on Baker show more retreat by 1900.

It's kind of remarkable how differently each glacier responds to its environmental conditions (even in the same range, some will grow for a decade while others will shrink), but my understanding is most specialists use 1900 as a rough date for when retreat began in earnest.

[T-Town]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I mean C’MON at least play good music like Metallica or Pearl Jam or Soundgarden or Led Zeppelin or The Doors or even some Rush…Something I can stomach as it echos across the lake and into my eardrums. Not some dumb country song like “I’m in my lifted Dodge and I’m driving down a dirt road and going to shoot me some tin cans in the woods and drink some Coors Light”  By some dude with a fake southern drawl that grew up in Oregon. 
 

NOW GET OFF MY LAWN YOU YOUNG WIPPER SNAPPERS…I just mowed it. 

Some solid choices in there.

You’re not old and grumpy, you’ve simply acquired the wisdom to know that those kids have no damm business being on your lawn. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking about this today... you have comes to terms with the reality of a process (melting glaciers) that started long before your arrival on this planet and will likely continue long after your departure.   Part of a cycle that has repeated for eons.  

Posts like this are why I am convinced you love the drama, even though you'll never admit it...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Posts like this are why I am convinced you love the drama, even though you'll never admit it...

oh yeah lol

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Sunny and breezy and 64 here. Breezier in Ellensburg. 

When we drove through yesterday on our drive back from Helena it was as windy as I’ve ever driven through and kind of difficult to stay in the lane. the side wind was such that our windows and seals on driver side were buckling and super loud. Annoying when you have two sleeping kiddos in the back seat. 

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Some solid choices in there.

You’re not old and grumpy, you’ve simply acquired the wisdom to know that those kids have no damm business being on your lawn. 

I’m a little put off by the “even some Rush” comment. Like Rush would be acceptable but not preferred. And by put off I mean I’m blinded by anger.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another really nice day. 62/51 spread here, although it may go a bit lower by midnight. Mostly cloudy this morning, with some clearing and breezy NW winds this afternoon. Currently partly cloudy and 57 as the sun dips beneath the horizon.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Posts like this are why I am convinced you love the drama, even though you'll never admit it...

For sure.   Andrew and Jesse make it fun.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For sure.   Andrew and Jesse make it fun.

It sounds like this is fun for everyone from top to bottom in this situation. It's like a sitcom, honestly

[Omegaraptor]

Grants Pass getting sustained 754 MPH wind! Wonder if everyone has evacuated.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It sounds like this is fun for everyone from top to bottom in this situation. It's like a sitcom, honestly

Nah. Actually I think Tim’s an absolute psycho and I wish he wasn’t here

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. Actually I think Tim’s an absolute psycho and I wish he wasn’t here

*cue laugh track*

[TT-SEA]

9 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. Actually I think Tim’s an absolute psycho and I wish he wasn’t here

Yeah... I am the complete opposite of a psycho.   I am very bland.   People in my real life would laugh at your assessment.   Honestly.   I have just been beaten up by you two on here so much that I don't mind needling you.    And almost everything I post here makes sense and is totally logical.  The fact that you are endlessly offended by what I say is amusing.

[Omegaraptor]

Batman and the Joker are incomplete without each other.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Batman and the Joker are incomplete without each other.

Yeah... I guess it would be boring otherwise.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS and 00Z GEM wash out that system over the weekend that the 12Z runs showed moving into WA.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS and 00Z GEM wash out that system over the weekend that the 12Z runs showed moving into WA.

Another W for boaters and another L for the Pasco tourism industry

[lowlandsnow]

3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

That may be true, but it looks like there really wasn't much change in length for most of them until 1900 (barring a couple exceptions). Here are estimated relative glacier lengths from a number of glaciers throughout the Washington Cascades based on the growth rates of lichen in the associated moraines (associated paper). Pretty consistent lengths throughout the 19th century although the Nisqually on Rainier and Easton on Baker show more retreat by 1900.

It's kind of remarkable how differently each glacier responds to its environmental conditions (even in the same range, some will grow for a decade while others will shrink), but my understanding is most specialists use 1900 as a rough date for when retreat began in earnest.

I am guessing White/Blue glacier responds to climate change quicker due to its low elevation and was one of the few exceptions. It had retreated 535m by 1890(Recent Variations of Blue Glacier, Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. (tandfonline.com). Nonetheless its crazy how much some glaciers have retreated. This is a link with photos showing how much larger glaciers were in the North Cascades in the early 20th century The Washington Traveler - Forest History Society.

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

That may be true, but it looks like there really wasn't much change in length for most of them until 1900 (barring a couple exceptions). Here are estimated relative glacier lengths from a number of glaciers throughout the Washington Cascades based on the growth rates of lichen in the associated moraines (associated paper). Pretty consistent lengths throughout the 19th century although the Nisqually on Rainier and Easton on Baker show more retreat by 1900.

It's kind of remarkable how differently each glacier responds to its environmental conditions (even in the same range, some will grow for a decade while others will shrink), but my understanding is most specialists use 1900 as a rough date for when retreat began in earnest.

Does that show that there was not really any glacier growth in the 1800s?    

[Meatyorologist]

Suddenly Friday is a point of interest. Some residual moisture being slung around into the area from the east due to a dying cutoff ULL to the south. Temperatures are tame too, mainly below 80F.